Free Republic

This is now the third consecutive presidential election in which I have made my state-by-state predictions for Blogcritics Magazine. In 2004, I was pretty good. In 2008, I was pretty bad. So I suppose we can consider 2012 to be the rubber match, or something.

Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That’s bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents, and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president. But it’s also true that most voters oppose Obama’s major policies and consider the very sluggish economic recovery unsatisfactory — Friday’s job report showed an unemployment uptick. Also, both national and target-state polls show that independents — voters who don’t identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans — break for Romney. That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32...

Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president. But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick. Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney. That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent,...

Some milestone moments in journalism converged 60 years ago on election night in the run between Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower and Democratic Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson. It was the first coast-to-coast television broadcast of a presidential election. Walter Cronkite anchored his first election night broadcast for CBS. And it was the first time computers were brought in to help predict the outcome. That event in 1952 helped usher in the computer age, but it wasn't exactly love at first sight. The 'Electronic Brain' CBS' Charles Collingwood was the reporter assigned to UNIVAC, one of the world's first commercial computers. "This...

NEALZ NUZE EXCLUSIVE: My Prediction For The Election In less than one week we’re going to know who won the election. My prediction is – and I’m sorry to say it – that next Wednesday, productive, freedom-loving Americans are going to be faced with the reality of four more years of Barack Obama. That’s my prediction. I hope I’m wrong. But I fear that I won’t be wrong because the entitlement mentality is so strong in this country, and the Democrats have been working so hard for four years to create as much government dependency as they could: We’ve been...

This past Monday, one of our research analysts - Jason Cimpl - caused quite a buzz on our Web site, as well as in our office, with a provocative article on the November presidential election.  I thought it important to follow up Jason's insights from an alternative prospective … one where speculators put their money directly at risk on election outcomes.  Let's face it, polls are meaningless. The questions are leading and the polls themselves are often commissioned by the two major political parties. Each party is motivated to put its candidates in a favorable light, so party-commissioned polls will...

Few pollsters are predicting an electoral landslide for Romney, but two academics from the University of Colorado have run the numbers through a statistical model they built and found Mitt Romney to be the clear winner in November. LA Times: Campaign 2012 may have spent weeks stuck on discussions of Mitt Romney's taxes, Joe Biden's rant on putting "y'all in chains" and "legitimate rape" and abortion, but a pair of Colorado political scientists believe the struggling economy will still be the dominant issue and will pave the way for a Romney victory. Using a state-by-state analysis of unemployment and per-capita...

Yes, there is still four months to go, and an electoral map prediction seems ill-advised and premature... But what the heck... I based my projections on a modified RCP poll average: I included only recent polls of likely voters, ignoring RV polls. I also used a more conservative version of the "incumbent rule" for the undecideds in these LV polls. Certain theory holds that 80% of undecided voters will break for the challenger. For this analysis, I was more conservative and assume that 65% of undecideds will ultimately vote for Romney. Based on these criteria and assumptions, I've arrived at...

I’ve abstained up until now from making any predictions on how the Obamacare cases will be decided. But I’m now ready to offer my own reading of the tea leaves. Specifically, the fact that Justice Scalia read his dissent from the bench in the Arizona immigration case leads me to believe that the Court will invalidate the individual mandate by a 5-4 vote. Let me explain the logical links (and expose their potential weaknesses): 1. As I understood it when I was a law clerk for Justice Scalia twenty years ago, there was an etiquette at the Court that any...

After a three-day marathon of oral arguments, during which the Supreme Court considered various facets of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, final impressions everywhere are mixed. Liberal supporters of the law have melted into hysterics on live television over the “train wreck” that was Solicitor General Donald Verrilli’s defense. Smeared in red atop the Huffington Post were, “Obamacare on the Brink” and “Disaster.” James Carville now claims that Democrats will “win” if the Court overturns the mandate. Conservatives, meanwhile, are practically dancing in the street at the prospect of an unconstitutional ruling, which once seemed a remote possibility....

The risk of the southern Kanto region including Tokyo being hit by a major temblor within the next four years could be as high as about 70 percent, according to a study compiled by Monday by a team of researchers at the University of Tokyo's Earthquake Research Institute. The figure is the same as the 70 percent forecast given for a magnitude 7.0 temblor hitting the region in the ambiguous "next 30 years" that has been repeatedly issued by the government's Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion on the basis of intervals between large quakes in the past. Naoshi Hirata, a...

‘ok yes….we are bored, we’re all bored now’

1. Who will be on the GOP ticket? 2. Who will be on the Dem ticket? 3. Which party will control the House and by how much? 4. Which party will control the Senate and by how much? 5. Headline Nov 7th, 2012? 6. What will be the upset race?

My Prediction: Obama resigns due to "Medical issues" (lung cancer/emphysema) becomes a health care martyr (amplifying the pity factor)of "Obama's Illness" as the dems run a new candidate to rally their side. That is my prediction, Go on record make your own.

Dude, it’s over. “Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House…Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement.Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing...

ATLANTA - [snip] And this year, for the first time, meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center will experiment with forecasting storms seven days in advance.In addition to predicting where tropical storms and hurricanes will end up in a week, forecasters are working to predict when tropical storms will develop five days in advance.The new forecasts could be accurate enough to unveil to the public in as early as two years, said Michael Brennan, a senior hurricane specialist at the hurricane center based in Miami. Brennan and several other hurricane scientists revealed their forecasting plans at the National Hurricane Conference last...

A former United States Geological Survey scientist says a major quake on the West Coast is imminent. Jim Berkland predicts earthquakes…accurately. Never heard of him? Perhaps you should—especially if you live on or near the West Coast of the United States, or know someone that does. Anyone with an average 80 percent success rate predicting earthquakes should command attention, and lately Berkland has been in the limelight of the national media. "The people that say you cannot predict earthquakes, they don't know what they are talking about," Berkland told the Santa Cruz Sentinel during a 2009 interview. Appearing on late...

May 21, 2011 is the day Jesus Christ will return for the Church. So says Harold Camping, leader of the Oakland, CA-based Family Radio Worldwide. According to an article at The Blaze, Camping has determined the date through his reading of the Bible. Camping, a retired civil engineer, also said the end of time will take place in October. “Beyond the shadow of a doubt, May 21 will be the date of the Rapture and the day of judgment,” he said. The Christian doctrine known as the Rapture says believers - those who have accepted Jesus Christ as Savior -...

That was the headline on this March 2000 story in England’s Independent: Britain’s winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain’s culture, as warmer winters – which scientists are attributing to global climate change – produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries. The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and...

Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) made only one prediction for Tuesday's elections: Senate Majority Harry Reid (D-Nev.) will hang onto his seat. On CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday, Durbin said he wouldn't speculate about new party leadership, specifically whether he'd vote for New York Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) to take over helm of the party, even if Reid keeps his seat. Durbin said he promised Reid he wouldn't discuss possible changes in party leadership until after the elections. Durbin's name also is circulating as a possible choice to take Reid's place regardless of the outcome on Tuesday.