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Michael Barone's Final Prediction: Romney Beats Obama, Handily
National Review ^ | 11/05/2012 | Michael Barone

Posted on 11/05/2012 7:13:35 AM PST by SeekAndFind

Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That’s bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents, and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.

But it’s also true that most voters oppose Obama’s major policies and consider the very sluggish economic recovery unsatisfactory — Friday’s job report showed an unemployment uptick.

Also, both national and target-state polls show that independents — voters who don’t identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans — break for Romney.

That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting — and about their candidate — than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.

That’s been apparent in early and absentee voting, where Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada.

The Obama campaign strategy, from the beginning, has recognized these handicaps, running barrages of early anti-Romney ads in states that Obama carried narrowly. But other states, not so heavily barraged, have come into contention.

Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I’ll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages — fully aware that I’m likely to get some wrong.

Indiana (eleven electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.

Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don’t see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto-bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small-town, and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.

Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond, and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.

Colorado (nine). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.

Iowa (six). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer’s remorse in a state Obama carried by ten points. Democrats’ traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney.

Minnesota (ten). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama.

New Hampshire (four). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.

Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.

Nevada (six). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas’s Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions’ turnout machine on Election Day reelected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they’ll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.

Wisconsin (ten). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Governor Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don’t see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

Oregon (seven), New Mexico (five), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama.

Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where there’s no auto-bailout issue. Obama.

Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.

— Michael Barone is senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: michaelbarone; obama; prediction; romney

1 posted on 11/05/2012 7:13:37 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Considering the way that Obama has crapped all over Las Vegas during and since his last run for President, it’s bizarre and self-defeating that anyone connected with Casino business would support Obama.


2 posted on 11/05/2012 7:21:32 AM PST by littleharbour
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To: SeekAndFind

I hope and pray he is correct!!


3 posted on 11/05/2012 7:21:57 AM PST by Gopher Broke (Repeal Obamacare !!)
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To: SeekAndFind

2008 Barone:

If, as seems likely but not quite certain, Barack Obama is elected next Tuesday, a key question for public policymaking will be how many Democrats are elected to the Senate.

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/barone/2008/10/30/election-prediction-democrats-wont-get-a-filibuster-proof-senate


4 posted on 11/05/2012 7:25:14 AM PST by Raycpa
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To: Raycpa

The above article raises an interesting observation. 4 years ago the pundits were writing about who would win seats in the Senate because the race was essentially over.


5 posted on 11/05/2012 7:26:59 AM PST by Raycpa
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To: Raycpa

Gingrich was on with Laura Ingraham this morning and he predicts Romney 53% Obama 47% Romney 300+ elect. votes.


6 posted on 11/05/2012 7:28:58 AM PST by sheikdetailfeather (Yuri Bezmenov (KGB Defector) - "Kick The Communists Out of Your Govt. & Don't Accept Their Goodies.")
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To: littleharbour
it’s bizarre and self-defeating that anyone connected with Casino business would support Obama.

Can you say SEIU? The entire town is gaming and the entire gaming industry is a service.
7 posted on 11/05/2012 7:31:06 AM PST by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: SeekAndFind

From his lips to God’s ears.

Prayer warriors, stick with it until the last votes are counted!


8 posted on 11/05/2012 7:38:12 AM PST by txrefugee
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To: SeekAndFind

I think what will be talked about after this election is not just the over counting of democrats in polls BUT also the under counting of value voters. Value voters such as Evangelical and fiscal conservatives are going to be out in force. Remember what happened with Chick-fil-a this summer? That was all grass roots and that intensity is alive and well today. Both Catholics and Protestants know what a second term for “the chair” will bring. I have not seen these groups this energized in any election since 1980.


9 posted on 11/05/2012 7:39:44 AM PST by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
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To: SeekAndFind

I love to watch and listen to Michael Barone. There is plenty going on behind those slowly blinking eyes. Watch carefully. That twitching mouth is anticipating what he is about to say. What he usually says reveals his genius. I believe he is correct this year. Romney will win and it will not be all that close.


10 posted on 11/05/2012 7:42:50 AM PST by Combat_Liberalism
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To: TMA62
I think what will be talked about after this election...

How much of a dick zero still is, and anyone who still supports him and his ilk.

11 posted on 11/05/2012 7:43:01 AM PST by going hot (Happiness is a momma deuce)
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To: SeekAndFind

From all I’ve read, Barone is as good as it gets when it comes to election analysis.


12 posted on 11/05/2012 7:43:09 AM PST by NoobRep
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To: txrefugee

>>Prayer warriors, stick with it until the last votes are counted!>>

STORM THE HEAVENS WITH PRAYERS FOR THE U.S.A.


13 posted on 11/05/2012 7:43:27 AM PST by kitkat
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To: SeekAndFind

I’ll go a little further. Romney=332 EV.


14 posted on 11/05/2012 7:49:45 AM PST by Former Proud Canadian (Obamanomics-We don't need your stinking tar sands oil, we'll just grow algae.)
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To: SeekAndFind
..there is no one better than Barone

Having said that, I think he may be wrong on Nevada...

15 posted on 11/05/2012 7:56:21 AM PST by WalterSkinner ( In Memory of My Father--WWII Vet and Patriot 1926-2007)
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To: txrefugee

“From his lips to God’s ears.

Prayer warriors, stick with it until the last votes are counted!”

Lord Hear Our Prayers


16 posted on 11/05/2012 7:57:38 AM PST by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: NoobRep
From all I’ve read, Barone is as good as it gets when it comes to election analysis.,

Not as good as the math genius Nate Silver. Barone cannot even translate his forecast to the first decimal and Nate can run his numbers to the eleventh decimal.

17 posted on 11/05/2012 8:04:46 AM PST by Raycpa
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To: SeekAndFind
My electoral map is exactly the same as Barone's except I also gave Minnesota to Romney. So I had Romney at 325.

My biggest concerns at this time is how Sandy will affect the election, and what depth the democrats will go to steal the election.

18 posted on 11/05/2012 8:15:43 AM PST by oldbrowser (Shellac Barac)
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To: SeekAndFind
Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.

Update on this...the place was jammed: 20k to 30k and people have told me all kinds of people, families with kids notwithstanding the cold. To me, it sounded like Chick-Fil-A all over again.

Barone is great, and I think he may just be right about PA.

19 posted on 11/05/2012 8:18:17 AM PST by Claud
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To: SeekAndFind

I believe George Will predicted about the same.

Make it so!


20 posted on 11/05/2012 8:32:53 AM PST by nuconvert ( Khomeini promised change too // Hail, Chairman O)
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To: SeekAndFind

Barone! You magnificent nerd, I luv ya!


21 posted on 11/05/2012 8:34:02 AM PST by GonzoII (Quia tu es, Deus, fortitudo mea...Quare tristis es anima mea?)
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To: Former Proud Canadian
I know its not realistic, but I'd like Romney at 339.

That means Zero is at 199

Sub 200

I'd also like 52/53% to 47%

47%, simply for Romneys comment that about the 47% that everyone jumped him about.

22 posted on 11/05/2012 8:39:07 AM PST by mountn man (Happiness is not a destination, its a way of life.)
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To: SeekAndFind; All

23 posted on 11/05/2012 8:55:23 AM PST by Hotlanta Mike (Feel the Power - GOP Tsunami Warning Issued for November 6th)
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To: GonzoII

Michael Barone is the Gold Standard when it comes to political analysis. He knows the political landscape right down to the precinct level.

I can’t think of anyone I’d rather have making this prediction at this point in time.


24 posted on 11/05/2012 8:59:08 AM PST by traderrob6
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To: oldbrowser

RE: My electoral map is exactly the same as Barone’s except I also gave Minnesota to Romney. So I had Romney at 325

_________

Don’t get me wrong, I BADLY wish you are correct, but I can’t help but ask — WHY MINNESOTA?

This is the ONLY state that did not vote for Reagan in 1984 and the state that voted for Jesse Ventura for governor and the Comedian Al Franken for Senator.


25 posted on 11/05/2012 9:02:58 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

I remember Election night 2004. Susan Estritch was ranting about “people in the know” who told her that Ohio was going to Kerry. There’s Barone on his lap top data mining for votes, precinct by precinct. A magnificent bastard indeed!


26 posted on 11/05/2012 10:31:32 AM PST by massgopguy (I owe everything to George Bailey)
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To: SeekAndFind
This may be wishful thinking on my part and I made my conclusion before the big storm. But I think that a heavily Christian state of working class people will be able to see through the hype and recognize Obama's incompetence. They may be socially liberal, but I think this election be decided on economic issues. Franken and Ventura were ideological not economic choices. Below are some of the things that influenced my opinion.

1. A 2008 survey by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life showed that 32.0% of Minnesotans were affiliated with Mainline Protestant traditions, 21.0% with Evangelical Protestant traditions, 28.0% with Roman Catholic traditions.

2. In 2005 the median household income in the state was $52,024, 11th highest statewide average in the nation.[25] In contrast, 9.8% of individuals live below the poverty line, ranking 44th in the nation.[25][28]

3. FROM: GLEN BOLGER RE: KEY FINDINGS – MINNESOTA STATEWIDE SURVEY
DATE: NOVEMBER 3, 2012
1. The Presidential ballot in Minnesota is a dead heat. Mitt Romney has a one point lead on the ballot (46% Romney/45% Obama.).
The demographics of the state clearly make Minnesota a battleground state.
2. Mitt Romney leads Independents by double digits.
As we are seeing across the country, Romney’s lead in the state is driven by Independent voters. (49% Romney/36% Obama). Due to his consistent advantage with Independents, Romney leads or is tied with President across the battleground states, even those that traditionally lean Democratic.
The Bottom Line Minnesota is very much a battleground state due the low minority population of the state and President Obama’s problems with white voters. Romney has a good chance to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the election cycle in this state .
Methodology
NMB Research conducted a statewide survey of 500 likely voters in Minnesota from October 30-31, 2012. Twenty percent (20%) of the interviews were conducted with cell phone respondents. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 4.38 percent in 95 out of 100 cases.

27 posted on 11/05/2012 10:50:54 AM PST by oldbrowser (Shellac Barac)
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To: SeekAndFind

As you know, virtually every poll has the dems +8 (or thereabouts), but according to Rasmussen, in October the number was actually +5.8 for Republicans, which would mean that the “national polls” are potentially off by close to 14 points:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

Landslide?


28 posted on 11/05/2012 10:51:47 AM PST by sdcraigo
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To: SeekAndFind

Romney will win Colorado for sure

Ohio easily Romney
Iowa Romney
Virginia Romney
North Carolina easily Romney
Florida easily Romney
Wisconsin leaning Romney but can go either way

Nevada-—Obama
NH up for grabs
Maine possibly some Romney Electoral College votes

*****This way I have Mitt Romney winning the Electoral College


29 posted on 11/05/2012 10:59:38 AM PST by dennisw (Government be yo mamma - Re-elect Barack Obama)
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To: dennisw

Pennsylvania - will go for Romney if he is winning big all over
Minnesota for Romney maybe, but Pennsylvania is more likely


30 posted on 11/05/2012 11:03:05 AM PST by dennisw (Government be yo mamma - Re-elect Barack Obama)
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To: Raycpa

There are several outcomes to the election.

A) Obama wins Re-election but loses Senate. Little will change but he will face a growing hostile population. Scandals may well see him impeached or forced out.
B) Obama Wins and retains control of Senate (with Biden) and we have two years a gridlock—no Budget, nothing but Obamacare. He will blame the Tea Party and GOP for this.
C) Mitt Wins but fails to take the Senate. More Gridlock and as Revenge the Democrats will not work with him and the MSM will chip away to make him look like an extremist failure.
D) Mitt wins and takes House and Senate—Things will get done but the MSM will paint all as black as possible—Few Democrats will do their best to block everything and produce gridlock.
E) The Race will be a Tie—and the nation ripped by riots and division—as the House calls the Race for Mitt?
F) Obama’s people so soils the election that there will be endless recounts—and the Supreme Court will select Obama as winner—or Mitt will concede to stop the violence.
G) Obama declares the Election invalid using UN data—and will stage another in 2013?


31 posted on 11/05/2012 11:14:17 AM PST by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll)
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To: mountn man

I don’t think you are unrealistic. I think a lot of people are going to be surprised tomorrow night.


32 posted on 11/05/2012 1:03:46 PM PST by Former Proud Canadian (Obamanomics-We don't need your stinking tar sands oil, we'll just grow algae.)
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To: MEG33

Amen!!!!!

(Praying it’s Romney w/ such a lead it can’t be contested!)


33 posted on 11/05/2012 1:24:54 PM PST by dixiebelle
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To: SeekAndFind

BUMP. Michael Barone is the best election analyst out there today.


34 posted on 11/05/2012 1:25:10 PM PST by Servant of the Cross (the Truth will set you free)
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