Michael Barone's Final Prediction: Romney Beats Obama, Handily

National Review ^ | 11/05/2012 | Michael Barone

[GonzoII]

Barone! You magnificent nerd, I luv ya!

[mountn man]

I know its not realistic, but I'd like Romney at 339.

That means Zero is at 199

Sub 200

I'd also like 52/53% to 47%

47%, simply for Romneys comment that about the 47% that everyone jumped him about.

[Hotlanta Mike]

[traderrob6]

Michael Barone is the Gold Standard when it comes to political analysis. He knows the political landscape right down to the precinct level.

I can’t think of anyone I’d rather have making this prediction at this point in time.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: My electoral map is exactly the same as Barone’s except I also gave Minnesota to Romney. So I had Romney at 325

_________

Don’t get me wrong, I BADLY wish you are correct, but I can’t help but ask — WHY MINNESOTA?

This is the ONLY state that did not vote for Reagan in 1984 and the state that voted for Jesse Ventura for governor and the Comedian Al Franken for Senator.

[massgopguy]

I remember Election night 2004. Susan Estritch was ranting about “people in the know” who told her that Ohio was going to Kerry. There’s Barone on his lap top data mining for votes, precinct by precinct. A magnificent bastard indeed!

[oldbrowser]

This may be wishful thinking on my part and I made my conclusion before the big storm. But I think that a heavily Christian state of working class people will be able to see through the hype and recognize Obama's incompetence. They may be socially liberal, but I think this election be decided on economic issues. Franken and Ventura were ideological not economic choices. Below are some of the things that influenced my opinion.

1. A 2008 survey by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life showed that 32.0% of Minnesotans were affiliated with Mainline Protestant traditions, 21.0% with Evangelical Protestant traditions, 28.0% with Roman Catholic traditions.

2. In 2005 the median household income in the state was $52,024, 11th highest statewide average in the nation.[25] In contrast, 9.8% of individuals live below the poverty line, ranking 44th in the nation.[25][28]

3. FROM: GLEN BOLGER RE: KEY FINDINGS – MINNESOTA STATEWIDE SURVEY
DATE: NOVEMBER 3, 2012
1. The Presidential ballot in Minnesota is a dead heat. Mitt Romney has a one point lead on the ballot (46% Romney/45% Obama.).
The demographics of the state clearly make Minnesota a battleground state.
2. Mitt Romney leads Independents by double digits.
As we are seeing across the country, Romney’s lead in the state is driven by Independent voters. (49% Romney/36% Obama). Due to his consistent advantage with Independents, Romney leads or is tied with President across the battleground states, even those that traditionally lean Democratic.
The Bottom Line Minnesota is very much a battleground state due the low minority population of the state and President Obama’s problems with white voters. Romney has a good chance to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the election cycle in this state .
Methodology
NMB Research conducted a statewide survey of 500 likely voters in Minnesota from October 30-31, 2012. Twenty percent (20%) of the interviews were conducted with cell phone respondents. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 4.38 percent in 95 out of 100 cases.

[sdcraigo]

As you know, virtually every poll has the dems +8 (or thereabouts), but according to Rasmussen, in October the number was actually +5.8 for Republicans, which would mean that the “national polls” are potentially off by close to 14 points:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

Landslide?

[dennisw]

Romney will win Colorado for sure

Ohio easily Romney
Iowa Romney
Virginia Romney
North Carolina easily Romney
Florida easily Romney
Wisconsin leaning Romney but can go either way

Nevada-—Obama
NH up for grabs
Maine possibly some Romney Electoral College votes

*****This way I have Mitt Romney winning the Electoral College

[dennisw]

Pennsylvania - will go for Romney if he is winning big all over
Minnesota for Romney maybe, but Pennsylvania is more likely

[Forward the Light Brigade]

There are several outcomes to the election.

A) Obama wins Re-election but loses Senate. Little will change but he will face a growing hostile population. Scandals may well see him impeached or forced out.
B) Obama Wins and retains control of Senate (with Biden) and we have two years a gridlock—no Budget, nothing but Obamacare. He will blame the Tea Party and GOP for this.
C) Mitt Wins but fails to take the Senate. More Gridlock and as Revenge the Democrats will not work with him and the MSM will chip away to make him look like an extremist failure.
D) Mitt wins and takes House and Senate—Things will get done but the MSM will paint all as black as possible—Few Democrats will do their best to block everything and produce gridlock.
E) The Race will be a Tie—and the nation ripped by riots and division—as the House calls the Race for Mitt?
F) Obama’s people so soils the election that there will be endless recounts—and the Supreme Court will select Obama as winner—or Mitt will concede to stop the violence.
G) Obama declares the Election invalid using UN data—and will stage another in 2013?

[Former Proud Canadian]

I don’t think you are unrealistic. I think a lot of people are going to be surprised tomorrow night.

[dixiebelle]

Amen!!!!!

(Praying it’s Romney w/ such a lead it can’t be contested!)

[Servant of the Cross]

BUMP. Michael Barone is the best election analyst out there today.