Free Republic

The government said GDP rose 3.2% in the last three months of 2013 -- one of the fastest rates since the end of the recession, though slower than the third quarter's 4.1%. Still, that sounds good, until you remember this: Employers only added 74,000 jobs in December -- one of the worst months in nearly three years. Stronger economic growth is supposed to equal more jobs. So what gives? It does appear that the normal relationship between jobs and GDP has broken down. In the first half of 2013, for instance, GDP growth was at 1.9% and employers added an...

The charts above are based on new data from the United Nations on GDP and its components for more than 200 countries, updated through 2012. Here are some highlights of the UN’s data update:1. The top chart compares the annual manufacturing output from 1970 to 2012 (measured in current US dollars) for the five countries that produced the most manufacturing output last year: China, US, Japan, Germany, and Korea.  As I reported last year, China officially became the world’s largest manufacturer in 2011, with output in 2011 ($2.34 trillion) that was 20.6% higher than the $1.94 trillion (updated) of...

The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.6 percent in the third quarter, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That's a rise from the second quarter, when the real gross domestic product tallied a 2.5 percent gain. The pace of growth is the fastest since the first quarter of 2012, which clocked in at 3.7 percent. Thursday's release is the "second" estimate for the third quarter, following up on data released in November that put the GDP's increase at 2.8 percent. But the increase belies some potentially troubling signs. As The Associated Press...

The good news. Real GDP growth was revised for Q3 up to 3.6%. The bad news. Personal consumption expenditures fell to 1.4% for Q3. There has been a steady decline in personal consumption expenditures since 1998. The good news. Private investment in residential real estate rose 13.0% in Q3! And nonresidential structures grew at 13.8%. The bad news. Real median household income (only through 2012) continues to decline. We have a “GINI Paradox.” Since 2007, real median household income has fallen while income inequality (GINI) has risen. AND we have rising residential real estate investment? The US needs real GDP...

With more people in the world living in cities than ever before, cities’ share of global GDP is rising: 25 cities account for approximately 50% of the world’s GDP. But not all cities can be winners, and not all are destined for greatness. The following smorgasbord of charts highlight how successful cities have typically had natural advantages such as location, time zone and resources; but more importantly, to remain successful they need education, a skilled workforce, strong property rights, a broad base of industries and in some cases, policies aimed at attracting capital and talent. Conversely, As Goldman notes,...

Over at The Atlantic, Ron Fournier -- the editorial director of National Journal -- argues that the Republicans are "The Party of Zilch."  As part of his rationale for why the GOP "stands for nothing," Fournier states that "[t]he country needs to tame a massive debt that will be 100 percent of the gross domestic product by 2038 unless Congress raises revenue and trims entitlements. No, says the GOP." Here is a news flash for The Atlantic: the American gross federal debt already exceeds 100% of GDP.  No need to wait until 2038; it is currently at 106.5% of...

While economists mostly focus on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, let’s look at nominal GDP growth for a change. If we go back to 1948 and President Harry Truman, you can see the number of times that nominal GDP growth (Year-over-year) exceeded 5%. nomgdpyoy And if we count the number of times nominal GDP equaled or exceeded 5%, we can see a pattern developing. Under President Obama, nominal GDP exceed 5% only once (5.2% for Q1 2012). The last President that experienced 5% or more nominal GDP growth was Ronald Reagan. gdpgt5 But even under the much-maligned President Jimmy...

While liberals have trumpeted how badly the 16-day government shutdown has been for the economy, they’ve ignored how badly the other 349 days of operational government is for GDP growth. As the deleterious effects of the shutdown have yet to show up in the actual economy, liberals are trotting out stats that say “Shutdown very, very bad. You too dumb to notice.” This is important because liberals are STILL caterwauling about the effects that the government shutdown is going to have on the fourth quarter GDP growth. Desperate to get the country’s torches and pitchfork turned back on the Tea...

Bill Still makes the case that given that QE injections ARE COUNTED in GDP growth, and 3Q GDP growth has been roughly $196 billion during the last quarter while QE injections are $85 billion per month or $255 billion. Meaning: The US actually shrunk $59 billion during the last quarter. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=qK6ftzkX7xc

(Vanity) I just heard at an intruiging conversation with a lawyer who works nearby Guomou Subway Station on Line 1 in Beijing. The attorney explained that their law firm is hired by the Chinese government to publish all economic statistics into the English language and make it available as press releases for the Western media, or so the lwayer claims. Apparently, the lawyer has described a culture of chaos as government officials try to figure out how to make fake economic statistics that look more believable. The source explained the routine. China has two sets of books: the real economic...

The sustainability of Portugal’s sovereign debt remains questionable even after the EC, ECB and IMF released an optimistic view last week following the eighth and ninth review mission to the country. The troika raised its GDP growth forecasts for the Portuguese economy. The figure for 2013 was increased to minus 1.8 percent from minus 2.3 percent. The number for the following year was lifted to 0.8 percent from 0.6 percent. At least there is progress. But Portugal has an unsustainable debt to GDP of 120%. portugaldebt Portugal has the second highest sovereign ten year yield in the EU after Greece....

Good news from Mark Skousen: Important Announcement and some good news: It looks like government may be starting to adopt my new macro model, based on my concept of Gross Domestic Expenditures (GDE), rather than the old GDP, which is what gives the false impression that consumption, rather than production and investing, is what makes the difference in the economy. Skousen has long argued that standards measures in the income and product account provide a very misleading picture of actual economic activity – a picture not consistent with a structure of production understanding of the economy.In Skousen words: Here’s why...

France’s Socialist President Francois Hollande decides to combat a faltering economy by … RAISING taxes. Seriously. Then again, President Obama is raising taxes massively in the US, mostly through Obamacare. The French government unveiled a 2014 budget Wednesday that continues to rely on higher taxes, threatening to further dent household spending power and economic growth, as well as President François Hollande’s record low popularity. Faced with growing discontent over high taxation, Mr. Hollande’s government emphasized efforts in the budget to improve France’s public finances by curbing spending. But net new taxes are still set to increase by €3 billion, with...

Phony Government Statistics: GDP- By: Larry Walker, II -“There are six things that the Lord hates, seven that are an abomination to him: haughty eyes, a lying tongue, and hands that shed innocent blood, a heart that devises wicked plans, feet that make haste to run to evil, a false witness who breathes out lies, and one who sows discord among brothers.” ~ Proverbs 6:16-19 ~Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the broader measures of economic activity and is the most widely followed business indicator reported by the U.S. government. But according to Economist Walter J. Williams of Shadow...

College began across the country last week. Opportunists associated with the higher-education establishment took the occasion to engage in special pleading. First was the leader of the organization most on the hook for higher ed, the federal government. Last year, the feds dished out $112 billion on student loans, an amount nicely equal to the combined endowments of all eight of the Ivy League universities plus Stanford. Grants to universities for research and other federal higher-ed handouts amounted to another $50 billion. The total is hard to measure, in that all sorts of federal agencies exist to funnel money to...

There they go again: while admitting to their lie about first quarter GDP, government economists are finding new ways to lie about second quarter GDP. While all of the attention for market-watchers has been on will-they-or-won’t-they taper at the Fed, the real story of the year is the fact that the Commerce Department just downgraded GDP growth once again, in at least a partial revision of the lie they first told last winter. And lost in the official revisions to GDP and the revisions to revisions and the revisions to revised revisions, is the story of how ordinary people are...

For staggering sum of $47 trillion dollars, one would think that perhaps this administration could afford a soundtrack under their reckless spending, like the 1970’s Bionic Man had when his binary powers took over. An original-score sound bed would add drama and color to the spending. The theatrical effect would be that it would make us feel like the spending was doing something. Instead, all Obama got us was the royalty-free laugh track. Through 2023 the Office of Management and Budget reports that the accumulated spending by the federal government since the One took over will be $46.5 trillion under...

The White House on Tuesday released a new report arguing a pathway to citizenship for the nation's 11 million illegal immigrants would add 2 million jobs to the economy and boost gross domestic product by $1.4. trillion over the next decade. The report, penned by Director of Domestic Policy Cecilia Muñoz and Director of the National Economic Council Gene Sperling, is the latest in a series of releases touting the economic benefits of comprehensive immigration reform as the White House pushes House Republicans to act on the issue. "We cannot afford a system that creates a group which can never...

The good news in today’s BLS report: the unemployment rate fell to 7.5%. The bad news? The recent real GDP revision revealed a dismal 1.7% real GDP growth. During the Reagan Recovery, we saw an unemployment rate of 7.5% in June 1984 … when real GDP growth was 7.20%. The Q2 2013 real GDP growth rate is 76% lower than in Q2 1984. gdpunemp This is spite of the 10 year Treasury yield (green line) falling from 13.56% on June 30, 1984 to 2.30% as of today. That is an 83% drop in the ten year yield. gdpt10 Like in...

Initial jobless claims were released this morning (326k) and beat expectations of (345k). It was the best beat in initial claims in 3 months and the lowest absolute level since January 2008. ijc080113 In fact, initial jobless claims are back to Reagan Recovery levels of March 1984 (although it took a lot longer to get there). When I compare initial jobless claims with homeownership rates, you can see a disturbing trend. Jobless claims are positively correlated with homeownership rates (both have been falling). ijchomeown Continuing jobless claims fell to 2,951K that also beat expectations of 3,000k. This level is still...