Posted on 08/01/2013 5:18:48 PM PDT by whitedog57
Initial jobless claims were released this morning (326k) and beat expectations of (345k). It was the best beat in initial claims in 3 months and the lowest absolute level since January 2008.
ijc080113
In fact, initial jobless claims are back to Reagan Recovery levels of March 1984 (although it took a lot longer to get there).
When I compare initial jobless claims with homeownership rates, you can see a disturbing trend. Jobless claims are positively correlated with homeownership rates (both have been falling).
ijchomeown
Continuing jobless claims fell to 2,951K that also beat expectations of 3,000k. This level is still above the Reagan Recovery (or Clinton and Bush Recoveries).
cjc08012013
Here is the rub. While initial jobless claims are as low as March 1984, real GDP growth is now 1.7%, while it was 8.20% in March 1984. The Obama “Recovery” is only 20% of the Reagan Recovery.
realgdpcarter
And both labor force participation and the employment-to-population ratio are back to Regan Recovery numbers. But going the wrong way!
lfpemppoprat
Let’s wait for the Friday’s jobs report and whether The Fed sees improving jobless claims as a reason to ease on back the gas (QE) pedal.
Would probably be good news if all the data wasn’t fake. Let’s see, they’ve revised the way inflation is calculated several time, they’ve revised the way GDP is calculated to include nonsense and double counts, they’ve revised downward the size of eligible workforce, they fake or estimate the number of unemployment claims from the states when they don’t report on time (in this computer era?), they use out-dated inaccurate labor surveys in lieu of computerized scientific surveys, etc. And finally, they just change the numbers to suit their story and later adjust them if the deem to do so, generally a year later on a Friday before a holiday weekend.
Consider this. The BLS and Commerce Dept. responsible for these statistics would have been fired long ago in a commercial setting. In fact, many large corporations and industries hire experts to actually generate correct statistics rather than relying on the government .... they’ve got something to gain or lose and cannot depend on nonsense (other than the stock market which is a gambling business not a conventional business).
is it because people are working jobs as independent contractors or other non benefits positions which don’t qualify the worker for unemployment when the job is lost? or they have not worked in the last two years duel to shrinking job market?
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