There have been close to 40 polls done so far this month. Three of them, including this one, have shown Trump up or tied.
What does this tell you? They are outliers. Remember the shock on Romney’s face around 9pm on election night 2012? Remember the shock on so many of our faces? It’s because we pinned our hopes on statistical outliers and didn’t read the real data.
What is the real data saying? Trump isn’t up 2 like Rasmussen says and Clinton isn’t up 12 like ABC says. She is up what the average of the other 30 polls say, roughly 5 to 7 points.
Clinton will win by about 7 points, maybe more. She’ll win 300+ electoral votes and if things get crazy, could start pushing 400.
Sorry folks, this is what the data are saying. Look at my posts from 2012, I know what I’m talking about.
We will lose the Senate narrowly but retain the house by 12 or more seats. That’s where the real power is so relax, the Republic will be fine.