Skip to comments.Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread
Posted on 11/05/2013 10:24:21 AM PST by parksstp
Thread for discussion of tonight's VA Gov Elecitons Result. Is this too early?
McCauliffe: 49.5% Cuccinelli: 44% Sarvis: 5.5%
Cuccinelli seems to be capped at 5% or so in making up the difference. The question is whether McCauliffe will break the 50% threshold, which is too close to call at this time.
Given these polls, simulations, and the recent trends in the State of Virginia elections, both midterm and Presidential, I've reached the following conclusions:
(1) Total votes between GOP&Dem (not Sarvis) will be at or somewhat lower than 1,900,000. If this holds, then it will be clear that GOP voters stayed home, which will only embolden the GOP-e more in trying to control candidates that are selected.
If, however, the total voters INCREASES from the 1,938,000 in 2010, this will indicate that there was an increase in those people voting that do not normally vote in these midterm elections.
Based on this, I see two scenarios, and will use Fairfax County has the prime example.
I suspect the turnout in Fairfax County to be only 250,000-255,000 people, a drop-off. Based on those current numbers, Ken would get around 37%, McCauliffe 56%, and Sarvis 7% or 92,500 to 140,000 to 15,000. In other words, there is a significant drop-off of almost 40,000 votes for Ken, but McCauliffe is only garnering a few thousand more votes than Deeds, while underperforming Kaine's numbers.. Placed across the state, this would equate to the 49.5%, 44%, 5.5% percentages.
The other scenario is that the total votes in Fairfax total 280,000. Using these same percentages, Ken would get 103,600, McCauliffe 156,800, and Sarvis 19,600. There is still a dropp-off for Ken, while McCauliffe almost reaches Kaine's numbers, but not quite. This is about as high as I think turnout can be. Any higher, or if McCauliffe pulls in better numbers than Kaine in Fairfax County, then you can say there is a sizeable demographic shift.
As for the least 20 of the 134 County/City-County regions in VA, I ran the following simulation awhile back. Because the numbers are overall lower, the margin for error is less. I have Cuccinelli winning here 56-44%, but this did not take Sarvis into account at the time. I have no reason to believe McCauliffe won't hit his basic target here, but that Ken will fall of short with a split vote.
For Cucinelli to pull the comeback, he MUST garner close to 115,00-120,000 votes in Fairfax County. If the voter turnout exceeds 280,000, add the proportional thousands to his required total to adjust. At this stage I do not see it. He must also meet his targets in the lower population areas.
Highland: Total 1,051 - Ken (675) Terry (376)
Norton: Total: 950 - Ken (653) Terry (297)
Bath: Total: 1604 - Ken (828) Terry (776)
Galax: Total: 1,295 - Ken (733) Terry (562)
Covington Total: 1,514 - Ken (478) Terry (1,036)
Buena Vista: Total: 1,440 - Ken (907) Terry (533)
Craig Total: 1,604 - Ken (1,089) Terry (515)
Lexington Total: 1,579 - Ken (676) Terry (903)
Emporia Total: 1,257 - Ken (709) Terry (550)
Bedford Total: 1,624 - Ken (993) Terry (631)
Bland Total: 1,871 - Ken (1,436) Terry (435)
King&Queen Total: 1,877 - Ken (1,156) Terry (721)
Richmond County Total: 2,165 - Ken (1,469) Terry (696)
Charles City Total: 2,209 - Ken (935) Terry (1,274)
Surry Total: 2,336 - Ken (1,069) Terry (1,267)
Rappahannock Total: 2,832 - Ken (1,571) Terry (1,261)
Franklin Total: 2,078 - Ken (913) Terry (1,165)
Manassas Total: 1,831 - Ken (951) Terry (880)
Greensville Total: 2,793 - Ken (1,271) Terry (1,522)
Cumberland Total: 2,877 - Ken (1,650) Terry (1,227)
Radford Total: 2,731 - Ken (1,462) Terry (1,269)
Matthews Total: 3,389 - Ken (2,407) Terry (982)
As returns come in, watch these target numbers. They all add up. But when I did these, I did not account for Sarvis, and I suspect he will pull from Ken's total.
“Is this too early?”
Nah, they’ll call it for McCauliflower pretty soon. Watch for speeding cars flying from precint to precinct with unmarked boxes.
The lightly populated counties of Gloucester, New Kent, King William and Middlesex are pro-GOP locales. Both New Kent and Gloucester supported Romney in 2012 in with 60+% support.
Based on Polling data, it looks to be (D) and (R) turnout at 35% +/- 1% with Indies pulling 30%
Looks like Females will be 54% to 46% for Males. Normal is 53-47 or 52-48.
AA Turnout projected at 15%, could reach 16%. Whites will be 76-77%, with other (Asian, Latino, etc) reaching 9%
What’s the weather in Virginia today? Any reports on turnout?
Don’t know, I’m just being a smartass from Colorado, heh. We’ve got our own problems, as you can imagine.
Weather is good. It was slow at my polling place. No parking spots because the Democrat workers took all the spaces.
In Central Virginia, the weather is fantastic.
I don’t know how the turnout numbers are looking, but at 6:45 this morning there was no line at my polling place.
Ah, people are going to start throwing county names in there and it’s going to make me want to fill in the rest of the spreadsheet. Takes too long, I don’t think I can finish by the end of the day.
As for Gloucester, just did a quick look. Yes, even with lower turnout, Ken projected to do well there, not sure how many votes Sarvis will take to cut into his target numbers:
Gloucester Total: 10,774 Ken (7,039) Terry (3,735)
I only hope that the KC turnout increases. It is still a bit early to throw in the towel IMHO!!! And...please pass this important tidbit out to the stay-at-home, conservatives!!! The just released Gallup daily poll has Obama at just a 39% approval..with 53% disapproval, devastating numbers!!! Conservatives...just get out there and vote for KC!!! Headline on Drudge, right now!!!
I visited the four polling places in Waynesboro twice this morning.
Turnout looked steady and strong for an off-year election.
Those who were voting, seemed to be Republicans and Conservatives — well-groomed and cheerful people.
I was encouraged.
yes...the polls are still open. It’s too early for this defeatist crap.
True, but made me chuckle anyway. LOL Wait a minute, we're not cheerful like we were before 2008. The stress of the last five years has killed lots of people. Lots of heart attacks and loss of sleep over the last five years. I'm sure you know what I mean.
I live in York County, another heavily Republican area. I knew I would be away for a business trip on Election Day, so I voted absentee. My wife voted at our precinct around 11 am..no line; in and out in less than 5 minutes. Hoping this isn’t a harbinger of a low GOP turnout
And now we find out the Libertarian candidate was funded by one of Obama’s Bundlers from Texas.
Dickenson 7% Highland 7% Westmoreland 15% Sussex 17% Alleghany 9% Bristol 14% Northampton 19%
These days , ya never know,, anything from global warming to public indifference may sway the voters.. Some say, Virginny has changed,,It’s like the DC Fed crowd has swollen it’s masses and Lordy only knows how many illegal votes will be cast.. Hopefully, enough of the sane ones will show up and respect their fellow citizens and do the Right thing. Anything else stinks.. Once a clintinoid, yada yada.
The problem is Cuccinelli is not only running against the dimoKKKRATS but also the GOPE. I am afraid it is going to be this way for some time to come.
There’s the public library on Wayne Ave. and Westminister Presbyterian church at the top of the hill on the west side. What are the other two?
But the stakes are high today for VA, and particularly the Tea Party.
Christie wins a blowout in NJ. If Cuccinelli goes down, the GOP-e will be all over it claiming the Tea Party cost them the election with the shutdown, etc, etc, and the state GOP in VA will rewrite the rules to ensure an EW Jackson never happens again.
They will point to today’s results as proof of “centralizing” and “appealing to moderates” as essential.
Cucinelli stepped in it when he dissed Cruz at a time he should have associated himself with him, but that’s what you get for listening to consultants. The problem, though, is that isn’t the narrative that’s going to be reported, it’s going to be how the “Tea Part hijacked the Lt Gov race in VA, caused the shutdown, and led to defeat of the VA Gov race, while the RINO in NJ wins in a landslide”. The stories are already on the printing press.
(1) Christie being pro-life
(2) Christie defunding Planned Parenthood
(3) Christie against gay marriage.
These are solid Tea Party positions. (P) In his first won, first thing Christie did was make an unannounced visit to a Christian conservative group---to thank them for their support.
Back then, his running mate was lacerated----b/c as a county sheriff she had hammered latino lawbreakers.
These are hardly RINO positions.
So, basically, the Libertarian faction is going to screw the pooch once again - and take what’s left of the country down the crapper with them ... I am really beginning to loathe the obstinate refusal to live in reality, rather to pursue their “impossible dream” - the one that invariably turns victory into defeat, and brings Americans ever deeper into the communist nightmare. If VA puts McAuliffe into the Governor’s mansion, then you might as well kiss this country goodbye - because I think this contest a very good bellwether for what the 2014 midterms will produce - much to the surprise of many ... Some just refuse to see how far gone we are.
Obama Campaign Bundler Helping Fund Libertarian in Tight Election
A major Democratic Party benefactor and Obama campaign bundler helped pay for professional petition circulators responsible for getting Virginia Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Robert C. Sarvis on the ballot a move that could split conservative votes in a tight race.
Campaign finance records show the Libertarian Booster PAC has made the largest independent contribution to Sarvis campaign, helping to pay for professional petition circulators who collected signatures necessary to get Sarvis name on Tuesdays statewide ballot.
Austin, Texas, software billionaire Joe Liemandt is the Libertarian Booster PACs major benefactor. Hes also a top bundler for President Barack Obama. This revelation comes as Virginia voters head to the polls Tuesday in an election where some observers say the third-party gubernatorial candidate could be a spoiler for Republican Ken Cuccinelli.
According to Virginia election filings posted by the Virginia Public Access Project, Liemandt contributed $150,000 of the Texas-based Libertarian Booster PACs $229,000 revenue. The Libertarian Booster PAC reported providing $11,454 to pay for signature collection, yard signs and campaign materials for Sarvis and another $4,690 for four Libertarian candidates running for the Virginia state legislature.
It’s like when Ross Perot helped Bill Clinton get a second term.
I’m also in central Virginia. It’s cloudy but dry here. Wish it was raining to keep down the Rats.
My husband voted at lunchtime; he said there were only a few people there. I’ll go later this afternoon.
COME ON, VA CONSERVATIVES-——GET YOUR BUTT UP AND VOTE!
Not defending the Libertarian faction, but we need to call Sarvis for what he is: a Democrat sponsored and funded stalking horse spoiler candidate who is billing himself as a Libertarian in order to provide a platform and siphon votes away from Cuccinelli.
If he’d actually run on Libertarian Party policies (legalize drugs, man. And pass the Scooby Snacks while you’re at it ...) he’d get less than 1% of the vote.
“am really beginning to loathe the obstinate refusal to live in reality, rather to pursue their impossible dream - the one that invariably turns victory into defeat, and brings Americans ever deeper into the communist nightmare”
I don’t mind them when you have two Democrats running -— e.g., Obama/McCain or Obama/Romney.
Here, when there is an actual conservative Republican? It’s a problem.
It’s also a lesson that conservatives need to be small-government conservatives, or they will lose elections.
Wow. Wish this had come a couple of months ago.
ashamed of my state.......but the media has convinced people ken c. is a crook in waiting and will make women scrub pots all day long.....the once great commonwealth is officially a blue state and a commie waste land....convinced our nation too stupid to prosper at this point
They can shovel BS with the best to them.
We’ll see who the real losers are soon enough..
I think I’ll pass on your conclusions!!! If KC loses tonight, it will be for a few reasons...but none of yours. KC never received support from the Republican establishment and his turnout was low becasue too many folks like some on this posting were defeated before the race even began. I am old short track and drag racer. I never once in my entire life got behind the wheel before the race began, and considered myself beaten before I even cranked up the engine!!!
I’m not big on naysayers and, I told you so, folks!!! Actually...I think this site should be remeoved. If KC loses tonight....and he well could...it will not kill the “Tea Party”. I am tempted to say your ploy is designed to tweek KC folks thinking all is lost. I read your bio carefully and it is full of holes, if one knows how to read it between the lines. I have spent a career reading contract language, and actually yours is garbage can material, no pun intended!!!
I’ll prefer to wait for the results tonight and depend on other posters for my moving and current inputs!!! You have enough gullible folks following you!!!
I think I’m in the only place in the country that doesn’t have something to vote on today.
Yeah but the numbers are worse for the Dems and the GOP is in the toilet. It would matter if people hated ODimwit and liked anyone else. Obama is just hated a but less than the other two is all.
We need to burn defeatists at the stake and on the front page no less!
“Im not big on naysayers “
FRiends-need some help. Would someone please post the story on Obama Campaign bundler helping fund libertarian in tight VA race? I’m on my cellphone and can’t get home for an hour or more. The story is on the blaze. And yes, its hugh and series!
Thanks and pray for the Commonwealth.
I am through with quitters, naysayers and defeatists PERIOD... and I do not lie like obama!
Im not big on naysayers
That is ridiculous. It is not uncommon for the results to be split in Commonwealth elections. In 2005, we got a Dem Gov., a GOP Lt. Gov, and a GOP AG. In 2001, we got a Dem Gov., a Dem Lt. Gov, and a GOP AG. Jackson's race will have no effect on Cuccinelli, and vice versa.
Number 152 at my precinct this morning at 0700. Pretty conservative district in West Hanover.
So there was some $16,000 provided to the Lib effort?
Amen brother! The last I heard the polls are open until 7:00!
Hey, if Obama didn't back him the GOPe would have.