Posted on 11/05/2013 10:24:21 AM PST by parksstp
Thread for discussion of tonight's VA Gov Elecitons Result. Is this too early?
McCauliffe: 49.5% Cuccinelli: 44% Sarvis: 5.5%
Cuccinelli seems to be capped at 5% or so in making up the difference. The question is whether McCauliffe will break the 50% threshold, which is too close to call at this time.
Given these polls, simulations, and the recent trends in the State of Virginia elections, both midterm and Presidential, I've reached the following conclusions:
(1) Total votes between GOP&Dem (not Sarvis) will be at or somewhat lower than 1,900,000. If this holds, then it will be clear that GOP voters stayed home, which will only embolden the GOP-e more in trying to control candidates that are selected.
If, however, the total voters INCREASES from the 1,938,000 in 2010, this will indicate that there was an increase in those people voting that do not normally vote in these midterm elections.
Based on this, I see two scenarios, and will use Fairfax County has the prime example.
I suspect the turnout in Fairfax County to be only 250,000-255,000 people, a drop-off. Based on those current numbers, Ken would get around 37%, McCauliffe 56%, and Sarvis 7% or 92,500 to 140,000 to 15,000. In other words, there is a significant drop-off of almost 40,000 votes for Ken, but McCauliffe is only garnering a few thousand more votes than Deeds, while underperforming Kaine's numbers.. Placed across the state, this would equate to the 49.5%, 44%, 5.5% percentages.
The other scenario is that the total votes in Fairfax total 280,000. Using these same percentages, Ken would get 103,600, McCauliffe 156,800, and Sarvis 19,600. There is still a dropp-off for Ken, while McCauliffe almost reaches Kaine's numbers, but not quite. This is about as high as I think turnout can be. Any higher, or if McCauliffe pulls in better numbers than Kaine in Fairfax County, then you can say there is a sizeable demographic shift.
As for the least 20 of the 134 County/City-County regions in VA, I ran the following simulation awhile back. Because the numbers are overall lower, the margin for error is less. I have Cuccinelli winning here 56-44%, but this did not take Sarvis into account at the time. I have no reason to believe McCauliffe won't hit his basic target here, but that Ken will fall of short with a split vote.
For Cucinelli to pull the comeback, he MUST garner close to 115,00-120,000 votes in Fairfax County. If the voter turnout exceeds 280,000, add the proportional thousands to his required total to adjust. At this stage I do not see it. He must also meet his targets in the lower population areas.
Highland: Total 1,051 - Ken (675) Terry (376)
Norton: Total: 950 - Ken (653) Terry (297)
Bath: Total: 1604 - Ken (828) Terry (776)
Galax: Total: 1,295 - Ken (733) Terry (562)
Covington Total: 1,514 - Ken (478) Terry (1,036)
Buena Vista: Total: 1,440 - Ken (907) Terry (533)
Craig Total: 1,604 - Ken (1,089) Terry (515)
Lexington Total: 1,579 - Ken (676) Terry (903)
Emporia Total: 1,257 - Ken (709) Terry (550)
Bedford Total: 1,624 - Ken (993) Terry (631)
Bland Total: 1,871 - Ken (1,436) Terry (435)
King&Queen Total: 1,877 - Ken (1,156) Terry (721)
Richmond County Total: 2,165 - Ken (1,469) Terry (696)
Charles City Total: 2,209 - Ken (935) Terry (1,274)
Surry Total: 2,336 - Ken (1,069) Terry (1,267)
Rappahannock Total: 2,832 - Ken (1,571) Terry (1,261)
Franklin Total: 2,078 - Ken (913) Terry (1,165)
Manassas Total: 1,831 - Ken (951) Terry (880)
Greensville Total: 2,793 - Ken (1,271) Terry (1,522)
Cumberland Total: 2,877 - Ken (1,650) Terry (1,227)
Radford Total: 2,731 - Ken (1,462) Terry (1,269)
Matthews Total: 3,389 - Ken (2,407) Terry (982)
As returns come in, watch these target numbers. They all add up. But when I did these, I did not account for Sarvis, and I suspect he will pull from Ken's total.
“Is this too early?”
Nah, they’ll call it for McCauliflower pretty soon. Watch for speeding cars flying from precint to precinct with unmarked boxes.
The lightly populated counties of Gloucester, New Kent, King William and Middlesex are pro-GOP locales. Both New Kent and Gloucester supported Romney in 2012 in with 60+% support.
Also,
Based on Polling data, it looks to be (D) and (R) turnout at 35% +/- 1% with Indies pulling 30%
Looks like Females will be 54% to 46% for Males. Normal is 53-47 or 52-48.
AA Turnout projected at 15%, could reach 16%. Whites will be 76-77%, with other (Asian, Latino, etc) reaching 9%
What’s the weather in Virginia today? Any reports on turnout?
ping
Don’t know, I’m just being a smartass from Colorado, heh. We’ve got our own problems, as you can imagine.
Weather is good. It was slow at my polling place. No parking spots because the Democrat workers took all the spaces.
In Central Virginia, the weather is fantastic.
I don’t know how the turnout numbers are looking, but at 6:45 this morning there was no line at my polling place.
Ah, people are going to start throwing county names in there and it’s going to make me want to fill in the rest of the spreadsheet. Takes too long, I don’t think I can finish by the end of the day.
As for Gloucester, just did a quick look. Yes, even with lower turnout, Ken projected to do well there, not sure how many votes Sarvis will take to cut into his target numbers:
Gloucester Total: 10,774 Ken (7,039) Terry (3,735)
I only hope that the KC turnout increases. It is still a bit early to throw in the towel IMHO!!! And...please pass this important tidbit out to the stay-at-home, conservatives!!! The just released Gallup daily poll has Obama at just a 39% approval..with 53% disapproval, devastating numbers!!! Conservatives...just get out there and vote for KC!!! Headline on Drudge, right now!!!
I visited the four polling places in Waynesboro twice this morning.
Turnout looked steady and strong for an off-year election.
Those who were voting, seemed to be Republicans and Conservatives — well-groomed and cheerful people.
I was encouraged.
yes...the polls are still open. It’s too early for this defeatist crap.
True, but made me chuckle anyway. LOL Wait a minute, we're not cheerful like we were before 2008. The stress of the last five years has killed lots of people. Lots of heart attacks and loss of sleep over the last five years. I'm sure you know what I mean.
I live in York County, another heavily Republican area. I knew I would be away for a business trip on Election Day, so I voted absentee. My wife voted at our precinct around 11 am..no line; in and out in less than 5 minutes. Hoping this isn’t a harbinger of a low GOP turnout
And now we find out the Libertarian candidate was funded by one of Obama’s Bundlers from Texas.
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