Posted on 03/28/2020 6:09:15 PM PDT by rintintin
New York’s coronavirus outbreak has violently erupted over the past few days, and the state is now driving the national epidemic — while on the West Coast, public health experts are wondering if an early and aggressive response saved California from a similar fate.
California reported some of the earliest coronavirus cases in the United States in late January. And in the first week of March, California and New York were neck and neck on cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. But over the past week, New York case counts have doubled every few days, and the state now has nearly 10 times the cases California does: 38,000 to 4,200.
Infectious-disease experts say early maneuvers in California, especially in the Bay Area — first discouraging people from gathering in crowds and then ordering them to shelter in place — may have had a dramatic impact, even if they came only a few days ahead of those in New York.
But other factors may also be in play. New York is testing far more people — three times as many as California — and therefore identifying more cases, for example. And it’s possible that what’s happening 3,000 miles away could be California’s future.
“New York may just be three or four days in front of us. We’re going to see an increase in the number of cases here as well,” said Dr. Warner Greene, a senior investigator at the Gladstone Institutes in San Francisco who specializes in HIV but is studying the new coronavirus. “Days matter — they really matter. You think you’re fine, you’re absolutely fine, but this thing is just waiting to explode.
“But we went into shelter in place quicker; we got people apart quicker,” Greene said. “That could be a contributing factor ...
(Excerpt) Read more at google.com ...
want to compare the mass transit system of NY to LA or SF??
Fifteen to twenty degrees warmer here.
This is where California’s unique urban sprawl actually helps them avoid the problems of New York.
Praying for NYC.
I agree. I think the greater population density of NYC over California is the leading factor for New York’s higher number of cases.
Same here. The person I know who has the symptoms can’t get a test. She is recovering, but she won’t be in the data. CA numbers are not very trustworthy.
Anybody who says it’s easy to get tested, even if you have symptoms, isn’t up on the facts, or doesn’t know people who are trying to get tested. Right now, in many many places they’ll only test you if you’re ill enough to require hospitalization, or if you’re a hospital employee or first responder. There’s still a big shortage of components for the testing process, as well as safety/protection equipment for providers
I find it equally embarrassing and infuriating, as if we’re not a First World country
I read the good news that Abbott Labs is bringing a new 15 minute test process online next week, but I also read that it’s use will be slowed by the continued shortage of masks, gloves and gowns
Because elected officials in NY really bungled things is why.
NYC
Subways
Tall buildings with elevators
Taxi cabs
Crowded restaurants for lunch
Broadway
NYC Workers living outside the city.
High percentage of population are Democrats
Why?
“ New York has the highest population density of any major city in the United States, with over 27,000 people per square mile.”
LA population much more spread out
My thoughts exactly.
It’s a lot easier to be more than six feet away from other people in California.
8 million cars in LA, 2 million in NYC
Lots of refugees that do not practice hygiene, most of the spread now may be coming from where, hospitals and doctors offices, only places left open. These places are being rushed and those people plus health care workers are spreading the virus.
Wait till they covert the Javits Center and all those people start showing up there with no strict hygiene rules in force and think of the third world doctors who practice here that don’t do simple hygiene in the office.
This bizarre notion people have of the popularity of Chinese New Year! One ripped paper dragon followed by 3 alter kockers in trad garb. Wake up.
Yes, I pray that warmer weather will lift this scourge around the country
“I think NY got seeded heavily by Italy.”
______
Maybe, but there’s this from Feb 09 =>
Commissioner Oxiris Barbot
@NYCHealthCommr
Today our city is celebrating the #LunarNewYear parade in Chinatown, a beautiful cultural tradition with a rich history in our city. I want to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not change any plans due to misinformation spreading about #coronavirus.
A Guide to Lunar New Year in NYC
Where to celebrate the holiday.
nycgo.com
9:10 AM · Feb 9, 2020·Hootsuite Inc.
https://twitter.com/NYCHealthCommr/status/1226508570646269954
Maybe he's not. According to Cali's COVID-19 facts page, 89,600 tests have been performed but only 25,192 test results have been received. 64,400 tests still have results pending.
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/NR20-036.aspx
Absolutely. If Iceland’s finding that 50% of infected show no symptoms is true - and based on the difficulty of getting tested here even with symptoms - I suspect the true number is 5x the current reporting. Which is likely a good thing...hopefully we’re further along than realized.
I agree though it’s frustrating how this has been mishandled.
“ “We are encouraging New Yorkers to go about their everyday lives and suggest practicing everyday precautions that we do through the flu season,” Barbot said on January 26th. She even added that those “who had recently traveled from Wuhan were not being urged to self-quarantine or avoid large public gatherings.”
On February 2nd, she urged the same lack of caution: “The risk to New Yorkers for Coronavirus is low, and our preparedness as a city is very high. There is no reason not to take the subway, not to take the bus, not to go out to your favorite restaurant, and certainly not to miss the parade next Sunday.”
so we know that this virus can be transmitted from one individual to another, but that it’s typically people who live together. That there’s no risk at this point in time — we’re always learning more — about having it be transmitted in casual contact, right?”
https://mobile.twitter.com/TEXOTX/status/1243433345662496769?s=20
Spectrum News NY1 (@NY1) Tweeted:
@nycHealthy How much of a risk is the new coronavirus to New York City?
Health Commissioner Dr. Oxiris Barbot explains to @InsideCityHall how likely it is to transmit the virus. #NY1Politics https://t.co/mUbU8F0p3N
https://news.grabien.com/story-flashback-nyc-health-commissioner-urged-new-yorkers-gather-p
https://www.foxnews.com/media/tucker-carlson-nyc-leaders-endangering-public-coronavirus
Yeah.
An off-beat thought is that California Chinatowns are less related to Wuhan, where the virus sprung from.
California Chinatowns were formed from RR workers of a century ago. I believe they came from mostly coastal provinces of China.
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