US spy challenge offers $250k to those who can accurately forecast future events

The Telegraph ^ | 05/18/2019 | Ben Riley-Smith

[aimhigh]

American spy chiefs are offering $250,000 in prize money for a competition that will test how successfully someone can predict future unknowns such as political election results or missile tests.

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity [IARPA], which sits within the office of America’s top intelligence official, is behind the challenge, which is designed to improve forecasting techniques.

Participants will be asked more than 300 questions about the outcomes of various issues across a nine-month period. The winner will collect $153,000, with smaller prizes to runner-ups.

Sample questions listed include “Which political party will win the most seats during the Polish Parliamentary Election?” and ”What will be the daily closing price of gold in June 2019 in USD?”

[Laslo Fripp]

You must be an old fart like me. Back in the day, the weatherman was usually wrong. But now, the weatherperson is almost always right.

The computers are that good.

[Nifster]

Maybe Glenn Beck will enter

[Nifster]

Maybe Glenn Beck will enter

[Nifster]

Maybe Glenn Beck will enter

[Spacetrucker]

Hearts In Atlantis ... loved that movie. Anthony Hopkins is one of the most talented actors I have ever watched.

[clearcarbon]

Loser!

[Bommer]

Rush Limbaugh would win this hands down. The most prolific political psychic in the world!

[AustinBill]

250K? Chicken feed. Anyone who can see the future can retire in style in about a week on the Forex.

[willyd]

This is not an exercise in statistics... it is crowd-sourcing snitches by pretending to be an exercise in statistics.

They are basing this off of the success of political prediction markets like predictit or intrade where individuals may prosper or fail, but collectively, the markets seems to move in the correct direction to predict the outcome of the event.

Of course these markets will cease to work, when larger players, interested in the outcome of the event, start to game the system and skew the results in their favor by introducing biased or betting on themselves.

[SunkenCiv]

...

[AdmSmith]

This,https://www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge2.html , is a good idea and a continuation of earlier tests such as
2006:
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol50no4/using-prediction-markets-to-enhance-us-intelligence-capabilities.html

and 2011: https://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2011/04/20/cia-investors-aim-to-build-a-pseudo-gambling-market-for-data-security-predictions/

compare this: https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/research-labs/advanced-technology-labs/icews.html

The important issue is not if a specific team will win but the result of their combined estimates and if it is better than any other gambling estimator.

[GOPJ]

Since the FBI, CIA and NSA monitors this forum, here’s my offer.

Ummm, you're putting us on, right?

[GOPJ]

Actually, anyone who can actually see the future already sent in the answers and has planned what to do with the money.

If this isn't something like a study of a subrosa collective unconscious, then a person who can really see the future would not sign up and would leave the cash on the table...

[M Kehoe]

;^)

5.56mm