Posted on 11/08/2017 5:08:45 PM PST by Kaslin
RUSH: Here is one more sound bite, Larry Sabato. Some people say in Rio Linda Sabato, but it’s Sabato. He runs the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. He’s a renowned political scientist of great repute among some, and he was on Shannon Bream’s show on the Fox News Channel last night — Fox News @ Night, Fox News After Dark — and she said, “Did Ed Gillespie try to embrace some of the president’s policies while not necessarily embracing him? What led to this resounding defeat?”
SABATO: Virginia is now a blue state. We’ve been calling it kind of purple competitive. We’ll just go ahead and call it blue. It’s not as deep blue as California or New York or Maryland, but it’s blue. So you would expect a Democrat to be elected when there’s a Republican president, particularly when the GOP president is unpopular, and he is unpopular in Virginia. He’s popular in red states, but he’s not popular in blue states. Everybody asked me, “Well, does this mean that Democrats will sweep in 2018?” I don’t know. We have a whole year to go. There will be a hundred big things that happen between now and then could change perceptions.
BREAM: Mmm-hmm.
RUSH: Holy smokes! I don’t believe it.
SABATO: Anybody who predicts 2018 on the basis of 2017 can be embarrassed.
RUSH: I’ve gotta applaud Larry Sabato!
SABATO: I would urge them not to do so.
RUSH: This is the first political consultant, whatever, adviser, expert that I’ve ever heard say “I don’t know.” And he’s exactly right! There are all kinds of things that are gonna happen between now and next year’s election, and there’s no way anybody can know what’s gonna happen. That’s why you listen to Schumer and all of these media people with their recitation of what are obviously scripted talking points — and their message is, “Trump has been rejected!”
“The American people are finally awakened. They see Trump for what he is: A total reprobate pig. The American people regret electing him. The American people have buyer’s remorse. The American people now realize the Democrats is the answer to everybody’s problems, yada yada yada,” and Sabato’s point’s right on the money: Virginia is a blue state where you’d expect what happened yesterday to happen. It’s not a surprise!
The surprise would have been… Trump didn’t win Virginia; Hillary did. It would have been a surprise if Gillespie had won. Gillespie didn’t do anything to win. Look, I don’t want to start dumping on these guys. They’ve got enough problems as it is. But there’s no way that you can Trump’s policies and somehow avoid embracing Trump. Our guys try to thread this needle in I don’t know how many different ways not just this elections but supporting various pieces of legislation or what they say to the media.
“Virginia is gone.”
And with it goes another leg in the GOP’s “Sunbelt” or “Southern” strategy. Florida is politically iffy as is North Carolina.
In terms of the Electoral College, we used to easily count on these three states as firmly in the GOP column.
Heck even Georgia is showing some, albeit light, shades of blue.
The worst part is that we don’t have any big states that are trending GOP. I like what I saw in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin the last few elections. They have either GOP governors or majorities in at least one chamber of the legislature. But the same time, I can’t see those states becoming red in the long term.
In 1990 Fairfax County was still over 80% white. It is now at 50% or maybe even slightly less.
Add to that the largeness of the federal government and the number of federal employees and contractors that live in Fairfax and surrounding counties who vote to support a large federal government.
Both of those factors contribute to voting blue with the ethnic makeup becoming a larger factor year over year.
It became a solid blue state after the immigrants.
Virginia’s Rupublican Party offers no real opposing views in NoVa - they run as Dem lites.
see #25
What IS important is this: had EVERY person who voted for President Trump in 2016 voted for Gillespie in 2017, he would have won, BIG TIME!
Given the same Democrat turnout, of course.
So, the relevant question is, why did 596,117 Virginia 2016 Trump voters stay home in 2017?
Trump obviously was able to energize Republicans to get out and vote and Gillespie/VA Republican Party was not.
There is a lesson in this election result for those who would care to look!
BTW, Republicans could have won NJ also, if the 2016 Trump voters had turned out for Ms. Guadagno.
You might look at the latest voter registration changes on my twitter feed.
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