First Emerson Poll of the General Election Shows Close Races in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania

Emerson College ^ | 8/29/2016 | Emerson College

[usafa92]

BOSTON, MA – Three new Emerson College polls show a tight race shaping up between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump in the key Rust Belt States of Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The two are deadlocked at 43% in Ohio. Clinton leads by three points in Pennsylvania (46% to 43%) and by five in Michigan (45% to 40%). The Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson garners 7% of the vote in Pennsylvania and Michigan and 10% in Ohio. Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2% of the vote in Ohio and Pennsylvania and 3% in Michigan. Each poll consisted of 800 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

In the three states Emerson most recently polled, both candidates face skepticism. Only 41% of Ohioans have a 41% favorable opinion of Trump versus 57% who have an unfavorable view. Clinton’s ratio is very similar: 42%/56%. In Michigan, Trump is at a 40%/55%, compared to Clinton’s 45%/52%. In Pennsylvania, Trump’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are 40%/58%, and Clinton’s are 42%/55%. Clinton’s unfavorability ratings are almost as high as Trump’s, with no more than 3 percentage points separating the two candidates. Trump tends to do better in states (such as Ohio) where Clinton’s unfavorables are similar to his.

[nathanbedford]

To judge a campaign by the size of the crowds is to live in the land of delusion

[seamusnh]

It does seem as if the polls always overstate the votes for Democrats and understate votes for Republicans....

[af_vet_1981]

Good news for Labor Day; stay on the main target focus and avoid all the minor player baiting and barbs. Trump/Pence can win. Pray without ceasing for God’s mercy and grace.

[LS]

When you look at the rather shocking D to R shifts in voter registration in Cuyahoga County-—the MAIN D county in OH-—it is about 100,000 and I’m erring on the side of conservatism-—could be as high as 140,000.

Minion lost the state by about 170,000. So in one single county, the voter registration shifts have almost been enough to change this.

[BigEdLB]

Pennsylvania D+11? Um yeah. Right.

[mountn man]

What about Pittsburgh - hasn’t that typically voted Dim?

Steel and coal are dead...and Hillary wants to make sure coal stays dead.

They "may" be "union" ...but they're mostly UNEMPLOYED union.

7-1/2 years of policies that openly bragged would kill coal...HAVE!
Hillary promises more of the same.

The only ones that will continue to vote dem, are the union bosses, kin folk, drinking buddies and cum guzzlers (but I repeat myself).

[MMaschin]

I would not count on some unseen “monster” vote.


These polls DO under represent actual Trump support, it's mainly blue collar, white, males, who have been called 'privileged', 'racists', for the last 8 years. They still consider themselves Democrats, but hate Hillary, and will vote for Trump. These people are reflected in the large registration shifts in closed primary states. For example, I saw a swing county voting official in PA talk about being amazed that over 30k people voted in the Republican primary, because up until then, there were on 15k registered Republicans in the county. Democrats are spinning this as Democrats who want to help Hillary by voting for Trump in the primary, that's total BS! Hillary does not have that sort of support within her party.


I see Trump winning all the eastern swing states except Virginia (too many people rich on the federal payroll there).

I'm mainly watching PA, if Trump wins PA, it's over for Hillary.

[KC_Conspirator]

Oh, I get it. Polls for years have been used by libs to push/form public opinion, rather than capture it.

[bIlluminati]

96,000 new Republicans, 80,000 new Demonrats, rest are independent or previously registered but omitted primary 3-4 of the last 4. So net +16,000 to Republicans.

Note: independents in some states (don’t know about Florida) can vote in party primaries. There will be more new voters between now and November. Also note: Florida has many new voters every election from people (often retirees) moving to Florida. Trump is favored in the over 50 crowd. So this is positive, just a small positive.

[bIlluminati]

In many past elections, the Libertarian vote was simply not counted - see counties with exactly zero votes for any Libertarian, while neighboring counties showed 2-5%. This includes statewide races. So is yet another place where fraud can occur. I agree Johnson more likely to get an official count of 2-4% than 8-12%. I find it puzzling that all reported polls show Johnson getting more than Stein, even in university areas.

[Nicojones]

What about the remaining 700000+ remaining from the 855000 newly registered voters in Florida? They can’t all be independent?

[HamiltonJay]

Yes, Pitt does, but Allegheny County is about it the rest of the region is suburban and doesn’t tend to.. Allegheny county doesn’t have a big enough population to really rule the outcome... it can to D heavy but it can’t sway the state.. remember the City of Pittsburgh proper only has something like 350k residence...

You have to take Philly region huge to win the state as a D...and I just don’t see Hillary getting the supported need to overwhelm.

[Leep]

based on anecdotal evidence i would say more right leaning folks are motivated to vote than left leaning. Please God let it be!

[italianquaker]

That is true. In 2008 when Obama won Indiana I knew we were finished and went to bed

[Kay Ludlow]

From the PA poll file:
education Percent
some HS 3.5
HS 20.2
Some College 20.3
College 14.4
Grad + 41.6
Total 100.0

Are they serious? 41.6% of Pennsylvanians have education higher than a bachelors degree? That's pretty funny, since the census shows about 48% of Pennsylvanians with ANY education higher than High School. They must be doing half of their polling on college campuses

[LeonardFMason]

But, but, but...... I thought the lamestream media were saying the election is over.

Since the DNC convention Hillary’s poll numbers are heading in the wrong direction big time.

NOTE: CHECK out pictures of her in NY POST(Pop goes the Weiner story). She is wearing a TENT of a coat. If she isn’t hiding something SHE LOOKS LIKE she is hiding something. WEIRD.

[Parley Baer]

“All 3 states were weighted almost identically to the 2012 Exit Polls. So they are assuming the same turnout model.”

Good observation and that is the problem with the polls. They are using the 2012 model. This is not 2012 on so many levels.

[mountn man]

Some College 20.3
College 14.4
Total 34.7%

Grad + 41.6

So...let me get this straight. Masters+ out number BA plus BS plus AA plus AAS plus certificates of completion plus some college?

Yeah right!!!!

[Ray76]

I agree. It’s unwise.

[Antoninus]

Also, Trump hasn’t yet begun to advertise in earnest.

Sigh. Flashback to...

1992: "Bush hasn't yet begun to advertise in earnest."
1996: "Dole hasn't yet begun to advertise in earnest."
2008: "McCain hasn't yet begun to advertise in earnest."
2012: "Romney hasn't yet begun to advertise in earnest."