Posted on 04/16/2016 10:11:47 PM PDT by Eccl 10:2
To all the political junkies yearning for a contested Republican convention this summer: not so fast.
It's still possible for Donald Trump to clinch the nomination by the end of the primaries on June 7. His path is narrow and perilous. But it's plausible and starts with a big victory Tuesday in his home state New York primary.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
The writer, like so many others, fails to factor in the 323 unbound delegates of which at least 100 should go to Trump.
Trump will top 1237+ handily. why?
Because, for example in California, and the same for many other states and also unbounds, the bottomline is who has a pathway, because throwing support to someone without a pathway is a waste. Each delegate left remaining has a large group of voters and interests behind them, they have positions and issues they want addressed, so they will fall in behind a candidate that can get those addressed and who has a pathway.
Manafort will not allow Cruz-Romney tactics to stand in the states that remain and which all weigh towards Donald Trump. So Cruz’ foray is over, and probably his career too.
744 now +
77 NY = 821 +
17 PA + 22 CT + 16 DE + 32 MD + 6 RI = 914 +
45 IN + 20 WV + 0 NE + 5 OR/WA = 984
130 CA + 51 NJ + 10 NM + 51 MT/SD = 1226 +
12 MO (now certified) = 1238
The California and MT/SD estimates seem high, IMHO. Trump has not fared well in the high Plains and Mountain states. But there will be the 54 uncommitted PA delegates, as well as 9 from American Samoa.
This is going to be VERY close.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/gop/3418959/posts?page=18#18
Maybe it would help if he could start acting presidential.
Where do you get 323 uncommitted delegates?
I’d like some one to explain what acting presidential is?
eloquent speaking like I kept hearing about obama in 2007-8? (how helpful is that when he pushed threw such an evil agenda for the USofA?)
throwing lamps and such as I hear hillary did while first lady? (would hate for her to be in charge of military since she has already been involved as Sec of State while US citizens were murdered)
reading green eggs and ham from the senate floor as Cruz did? (what a waste of time and tax payer money with no real point to it)
just a few examples but there are so many more “unpresidential” actions of those who have held or are looking to be Elected (not selected) to the position.
I may be wrong, but what comes to my mind is someone who sees problems and does what is needed to address those problems, a leader who is not afraid of doing things different or being seen as different, but is willing to give it his all to restore/shoreup the foundation of the country making things better for it’s legal citizens.
bookmark
Well said.
sorry just can’t help myself tonight but
“acting presidential” nowadays means... just what?
Mr. Trump appears happy with his current very attractive wife...
and I have not heard (at least) about his having any young aides equipped with knee pads
:)
Excerpt:
“Pennsylvania could be trouble for Trump. The state has a unique system in which 54 delegates — three from each congressional district — are listed by name on the ballot, with no information for voters to know which candidate they support.”
If this is true, Pennsylvania appears to have the worst system of all.
Some of his contemporaries viewed Winston Churchill as vulgar and blunt, perhaps not prime ministerial.
This presidential cycle America doesn’t need an ideological president, it needs a fixer.
I predict NY 71 and California 96.
My total is 167 but I still get Trump at around 1,240.
You are higher than me at 207 total for those two. I hope your CA number is more accurate.
I’m also adding in 64 of 129 uncommitted delegates for almost 50%.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/
Nope, it’s not as bad, our system in PA is the voters pick the statewide winner, and we also vote for our district’s delegate on the same ballot. Most of them already have pledged to vote the way their district voted when they get to the first ballot.
So with Trump leading in PA, he will get the large majority of the 54 unbound, even if they aren’t technically bound. They also know there would be hell to pay if they went against their voters here in Northeast PA.
NOT TRUE. For any PA pubbie voter that cares, the attached url will direct you to the delegates, district by district and their current, stated position.
The voter must know which of the 18 districts they live in and must know how to read. While no voter ID is required to vote in the November election {it's only for the President, after all} you will have to show ID to vote in the primary because the party is more protective of it's delegates than they are about the real election{but you already knew that}.
The primary selection process is truely one FUBARed, crooked, rigged system which has been designed to keep power in the hands of the politicians and away from the unwashed throng.
http://pennsylvaniarepublicandelegates2016.blogspot.com/
I had no idea there were 129 uncommitted delegates. If trump wins a conservatively proportional 50 of those, it is over.
I think he’s bringing a couple of alpha male actors on the trail in Cali.
How should our President act when we are in WW3 and the economy has tanked as a result of people like Cruz/bush pushing their globalist empowering agenda last couple decades?
Seems a smart fighter is what is called for....
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