The writer, like so many others, fails to factor in the 323 unbound delegates of which at least 100 should go to Trump.
Trump will top 1237+ handily. why?
Because, for example in California, and the same for many other states and also unbounds, the bottomline is who has a pathway, because throwing support to someone without a pathway is a waste. Each delegate left remaining has a large group of voters and interests behind them, they have positions and issues they want addressed, so they will fall in behind a candidate that can get those addressed and who has a pathway.
Manafort will not allow Cruz-Romney tactics to stand in the states that remain and which all weigh towards Donald Trump. So Cruz’ foray is over, and probably his career too.
744 now +
77 NY = 821 +
17 PA + 22 CT + 16 DE + 32 MD + 6 RI = 914 +
45 IN + 20 WV + 0 NE + 5 OR/WA = 984
130 CA + 51 NJ + 10 NM + 51 MT/SD = 1226 +
12 MO (now certified) = 1238
The California and MT/SD estimates seem high, IMHO. Trump has not fared well in the high Plains and Mountain states. But there will be the 54 uncommitted PA delegates, as well as 9 from American Samoa.
This is going to be VERY close.
Maybe it would help if he could start acting presidential.
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Excerpt:
“Pennsylvania could be trouble for Trump. The state has a unique system in which 54 delegates — three from each congressional district — are listed by name on the ballot, with no information for voters to know which candidate they support.”
If this is true, Pennsylvania appears to have the worst system of all.
Trump was winning CA by 8% in one poll, but that was before CO. I wonder how he is doing now.