Posted on 04/09/2016 11:49:42 AM PDT by Strac6
A serious question about potentially brokered (free vote) convention.
Some real world givens here. Trump may make it on the first ballot. If he does not, he still has a chance on the second, but that is a lesser chance. If he doesn't win on the first or second, then he is out of the race.
Cruz, probably little chance on the first, better on the second, perhaps about the same on a 3d ballot, and if not successful there, he is gone.
But they do have to nominate someone, and remember, any Convention Rule can be changed by a simple voice vote.
PLEASE DO NOT LET THIS POST JUST TURN INTO A RA RA TRUMP, or a RA RA CRUZ OR ANYTHING SUCH AS THAT, or A FLAME WAR / RANT, BUT LET IT BE A SERIOUS DISCUSSION, OK?
If Trump and Cruz are gone, Kasich has a chance, but he is not the type of candidate everyone suddenly has a Eureka moment about.
I don't see Palin reemerging, nor McCain, nor Romney, nor Christie. Not Walker, nor Carson.
Paul Ryan is not a "strong" person.
How about Rudy Giuliani? He is still "America's Mayor" from 9/11.
Who else has some ideas.
Let's also NOT make this a place to just knock every other person's suggestion or complain the named candidate isn't Conservative "enough". Remember, Heinrich Himmler isn't running. Let's just see where this goes.
Who's got the best Crystal Ball, and can pick the winner of a possible contested convention 3 months early?????
I feel like the establishment wont let someone in that will do a good job and put Republicans in the house and senate back to work... Giuliani and Newt and Huckabee would be good.
But with both Trump and Cruz possible out by a 4th ballot, there would be a motion from the floor to suspend 40B, or the chair could simply rule unenforceable.
We shall see.
I presume most of the people in the room are originally Trump or Cruz supporters, not just delegates. I don’t see a chance in hell they would stand for a GOPe hand-picked nominee. He needs to be somebody with some true conservative bonafides, not just Republican. Secondly, if they are office-holders, they would have to be people who could be replaced by another Republican for their House/Senate/Gubernatorial seat.
All that said, my short list would be:
Sen. Jeff Sessions (AL)
Sen. Mike Lee (UT)
Former congressman Allen West (FL)
If you can get the Trump and Cruz factions to both agree on one compromise candidate, it won’t matter what the GOP-e wants.
nobody is ever “out” until a winner emerges
I’m not trying to be a wise guy, but the end sounds like Evita describing Peron.
Watched Allen West debate 3 hard core radical Islamists one night.
He sent then home in tears.
>> What’s your best guess <<
The delegates are not fools. Most of them are good hometown folks, who have been active in local GOP duties for a while, and most of them will want to do what they judge is best for the party and for the nation. They will not take these duties lightly, and they are not likely to be intimidated by threats from any candidate or his proxies.
Anyway, after it becomes clear that Mr. Trump can’t win on the first ballot, I think many delegates will start moving toward Cruz. Most delegates are too smart and to knowledgeable about politics to go with a “white knight” who might come to the convention with few or zero votes, because they know that a new candidate like this would disastrously alienate not only the Trump supporters but also the Cruz supporters.
Therefore, to make a long story short, I believe Cruz will wrap things up no later than the fourth ballot, but most likely on the third. Then he will name Nikki Haley as his VP running mate.
>> Is this what our founding fathers designed <<
It’s possible, whether or not you and I like it.
After all, the Founders gave us a republic instead of a democracy. And in a republic, the people’s representatives are supposed to exercise independent judgment, not just blindly and inevitably follow the latest tally of popular votes.
Today this was posted:
retired Marine General “Maddog” Mattis
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3418992/posts
... group of wealthy donors is preparing to draft retired Marine Gen. James “Mad Dog” Mattis to run for president and take down Donald Trump,...
The game plan would be for Mattis to win enough states to keep Trump and Hillary Clinton from getting the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency....
The HOUSE WOULD THEN PICK THE PRESIDENT, and supporters believe lawmakers would support a former general widely seen as an American hero.
>> by a 4th ballot, there would be a motion from the floor to suspend 40B <<
Or even on the second ballot. Then the chair calls for a voice vote, and the motion passes — no matter how high the noise level in the hall when the “noes” are asked to vote. It’s been fundamentally that way since the time of Methuselah.
Trump could uncork some more upside by moderating his tone. He sounds fine for the character of a WWE rassler, but that’s going to limit the size of the populist parade he can assemble too.
I suspect Trump probably will do that too, especially with Cruz nipping at his heels.
>> I’m not trying to be a wise guy, but the end sounds like Evita describing Peron <<
Wise guy or not, I think Juan Peron did say he’d make Argentina great again.
If they aren’t fools, they’ll look at the reach of the prospective candidate beyond the traditional GOP fold. Trump has more friends there than Cruz does.
“But they do have to nominate someone, and remember, any Convention Rule can be changed by a simple voice vote.”
The rules are set by the “Rules Committee” before voting begins.
It isn’t going to be changed by voice vote so Kasich can be nominated.
>> I’m not trying to be a wise guy, but the end sounds like Evita describing Peron <<
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Wise guy or not, I think Juan Peron did say he’d make Argentina great again.
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LOL - Well, he DID make it into the economic basket case it is today.
Honoring the spirit of your thread, Mitch Daniels. Oddly, his biggest weakness may his stature. 5’7” or so.
They don’t need to suspend 40b. Everyone reads it incorrectly, and most haven’t read it at all. I does NOT say you have to have won 8 primaries or caucuses and have a majority from those 8 states in order to be nominated. It just says you can’t be nominated until you have “SECURED” that many state majorities. “Secure” means you can get them by talking unsecured delegates after the first round. Everybody gets this wrong and the GOP of course does not correct this mistake—why should they?
On another related point, the rules as presently written are absolutely silent as to what would happen if there is no nominee after 4 days when the rent runs out on the convention hall, the hotel rooms, etc. Must think ahead, and do your best to think like a sleazy lawyer to actually figure this out.
Because Rubes has only “suspended” his campaign (I think Yeb too) either of them will be the nominee if it isn’t Trump.
It will not be Cruz. He has always been a Trump speedbump. If the GOPe gets Trump out, they absolutely will not let Cruz win.
yes people seriously underestimate the dislike the GOP has for Cruz.
It’s not a question of Kasich, it’s a question of anybody after the 2d or 3d ballot.
Any rule can be changed by the convention “changing” (a procedural move) into a Committee of The Whole.
Plus the Chair, if there we no longer any nominees meeting the 40B requirement, could simple announce he was suspending the Rule, and no one could stop him.
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