Just to remind you: The Iowa Caucuses recent history

February 1, 2016

[EveningStar]

Keeping things in perspective:

2008 Republican Iowa Caucus winner: Mike Huckabee, eventual nominee John McCain finished a distant fourth.

2012 Republican Iowa Caucus winner: Rick Santorum, eventual nominee Mitt Romney finished a very close second.

[A CA Guy]

They were right once in the 80s?

[dynoman]

Not with Reagan.

[PghBaldy]

More data:

Iowa Winners who became party nominee:

Demonrat:
80 Carter
84 Mondale
96 Clinton
00 Gore
04 Kerry
08 Obama
12 Obama

Republicant:
76 Ford
84 Reagan
92 Bush
96 Dole
00 Bush
04 Bush

[Angels27]

Yes, yes, yes, we know.

Still a good win for Ted Cruz as the polls said he would lose. Trump a strong second. Rubio a scary 3rd.

Long way to go.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Did Sweater Vest or Huckleberry have millions in the bank and a ground game set up in the following states? Cruz does!

[chae]

So, how did the Iowa caucus do in 2000, 1988, and 1980?
You know, the years where we won the presidency?

[falcon99]

Sound so much like a Dem/Lib — they fall back on the same thing when they lose.

[EveningStar]

I’m just saying that people on all sides should take the results of the Iowa Caucuses with a grain of salt.

[who_would_fardels_bear]

This is still important.

Cruz had to win to even have a chance nationally.

This also gives Huckabee and Santorum an excuse to bow out. Huckabee might try and get his supporters to vote Trump, but I'm thinking that most of those who would have voted for Santorum or Huckabee will swing toward Cruz.

Cruz might get a bump in NH if people decide to leave Carson as well despite him doing as well as predicted, i.e. not very good.

[Lopeover]

Rubio the Rino uniparty candidate won counties around the leftist Des Moine. This ought to scare the heck out of us! There were too many Candidates running. The low lying fruit candidates pared votes from the front runners. They need to close up their campaigns.

[PghBaldy]

Iowa winners:

80 GHW Bush
88 Dole
00 GW Bush

[TigerClaws]

Rubio is now the GOPe go to guy.

[The Ghost of FReepers Past]

Good advice. It is a long way from over.

[freedumb2003]

Not a good predictor one way or the other.

There hasn’t been a field like this ever.

This is an elimination contest, not a pick the winner contest.

Now will everyone in the single digits please FOLD UP YOUR DAMN TENTS????

[EveningStar]

Check my posting history. I like the results. I just don’t put much stock in them.

[Lopeover]

Nominee? How about President? Reagan & Bushs.

[Dr. Sivana]

They were right once in the 80s?

Nope. George Herbert Walker Bush beat Reagan in 1980. There was no competitive caucus for Reagan's re-election. George Herbert Walker Bush got beat by Dole and Pat Robertson in 1988.

Iowa DID make Jimmy Carter (finished 2nd to UNCOMMITTED) and Obama (HRC finished third, behind Edwards).

That said, it is better to win Iowa than to lose Iowa. There will be no more talk of anyone "running the table", Rubio is DEFINITELY better position than John Ellis Bush, Kasich or Christie as "The Establishment guy" in New Hampshire. Each election is different.

Even if the Iowa delegate count isn't large, if Cruz had lost big, it would have reflected poorly on his organization and ground game, and himself as a candidate, as he was clearly making an appeal tailored to Iowa Republicans.

We also know that caucuses are STILL hard to poll. Cruz might have finished even higher if he didn't have a weak last week.

[MNJohnnie]

Sound so much like a Cult of Personality bot who scream infantile bile at the person posting the facts instead of having a rational adult response.

[SubMareener]

Here are the delegate counts for tonight:
Cruz 8
Trump 7
Rubio 6
Carson 2
Paul 1

Everyone else 0. It takes 1237 delegates to win.