Posted on 01/31/2016 12:04:23 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
The final Des Moines Register poll was just released, showing Donald Trump leading the Republican field in Iowa with 28 percent, Ted Cruz with 23 percent and Marco Rubio with 15 percent. Hillary Clinton was ahead of Bernie Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent, on the Democratic side. The political world - us included - was eagerly awaiting this survey, as Ann Selzer, who has conducted the Register's polls since the 1988 caucuses, has a very good track record. But just how predictive of the final results have Selzer's polls been? History suggests they're a good indicator of what will happen in Monday's Iowa caucuses, though there is room for a candidate or two to surprise.
I've gathered Selzer's final caucus polls for Republicans and Democrats since she started at the Register. For each race, I've calculated the difference between all candidates' polled percentage of support and their final share of the vote.
Selzer's final poll has correctly projected every single winner except for Republican Rick Santorum in 2012.
And the Register poll's successes haven't been limited to blowout races. She caught the late momentum for Democrat John Kerry in 2004 and famously called Barack Obama's victory in 2008.
Even when Selzer's final poll missed the winner in 2012, it still indicated the potential for Santorum to win. The survey was conducted over four days, and in addition to the topline, aggregate numbers, Selzer released day-by-day results. The final day of her last 2012 caucus poll showed Santorum within a percentage point of Mitt Romney. In fact, the average error per candidate of the last day of her final 2012 caucus poll was just 1.9 percentage points.
Indeed, what makes Selzer truly special isn't just that she calls winners but that her error rates are fairly low across all candidates. Her average error per candidate per year has been just 3.3 percentage points. That means that what a candidate receives in her poll is probably going to be pretty close to what he or she gets from voters.
That's not to say the Des Moines Register poll is perfect. It sometimes misses on a candidate by a lot. Selzer's final poll in 1988 missed Republican Pat Robertson's eventual vote share by just more than 10 percentage points. Same thing with Kerry in 2004.
Who might benefit from that type of miss this time around? History suggests there are two types of candidates who tend to outperform their polls. The first is a candidate who does well among Christian conservatives. Selzer's final polls on the Republican side in 1988, 1996 and 2012 all missed the candidate favored by Christian conservatives by at least 8.5 percentage points. That could be good news for Cruz. Secondly, candidates with late momentum, such as Kerry in 2004 and Santorum in 2012, also tend to beat their polls. That could be beneficial to Rubio, who seems to be gaining in some polls.
Could there also be a big error on the Democratic side? It's possible, but Selzer did particularly well in 2000, the last Democratic campaign with only a few candidates running. Fewer candidates means voters have an easier time settling on one candidate and reallocation of support becomes less of an issue.
Of course, we won't know how accurate Selzer's final poll is this year until Monday or the day after. It's worth remembering, however, that even the best pollsters - and Selzer is one of the best - aren't perfect.
That is just plain silly. I have plenty of snark left. Would I like to see Rubio beat Cruz in Iowa. Hell no. Is it going to happen on Monday..... Unfortunately yes.
Saving my snark and just saying the truth.
Thank God DT is there in the lead, otherwise we would trade one dumb-ass boy POTUS for another.
your need to have the last word is boring. Look at what you’re reduced to in that last statement. You have nothing but anger and bile. You embarrass the entire site and bring down the level of civility with posting.
Amen?
Btw you missed 81
He’d better. If Hillary blows this opportunity, count on the powers in leftistland to get behind the Mooch in 2020.
Do you speak for Jim when you threaten other posters? I’ve seen nothing from these long time posters that warrant that. You might want to have the courtesy to post to him as well. IMHO you sound like that Fascist Professor Melisa Click.
Do you speak for Jim when you threaten other posters? I’ve seen nothing from these long time posters that warrant that. You might want to have the courtesy to post to him as well. IMHO you sound like that Fascist Professor Melissa Click.
Do you speak for Jim when you threaten other posters? I’ve seen nothing from these long time posters that warrant that. You might want to have the courtesy to post to him as well. IMHO you sound like that Fascist Professor Melissa Click.
Gosh! You folks bickering on these threads, especially CW and the “Lesbian Whatever your Name Is” ... is really getting annoying beyond the pale! Why don’t you take it to a private thread/chat and give everyone else a rest! One likes Trump, one doesn’t. One likes Cruz, one doesn’t. WHO CARES! We all have our likes and dislikes. So enough already! Gosh...just STOP IT! Talk about childish! Can’t get through a thread without all the arguing, bickering, finger pointing, ridiculing, etc. ENOUGH ALREADY! ENOUGH!
Those of you that have known me for a long time, know that I like to be right more than anything else. I get paid to do this because I'm right more often than not (I've virtually predicted the right outcome of every meaningful election in Iowa since I started in the 2008 cycle). In order to do so that means I have to provide analysis that may not be what I prefer the outcome to be. I think I've proven time and time again I will do it, too, if I have to regardless of the consequences.
Another reason I'm right more often than not is because I don't go by top-line public polling, but a more holistic approach that includes factors you can itemize like grassroots energy and organizational infrastructure (donor/volunteer base, etc), and I've got sources who give me access to some of the best high-dollar internal data analytics out there.
This is often why my predictions aren't just right more often than not, but also different from the conventional wisdom almost always.
So now we have FOX as well as CNN producing polls this week that show 300,000 Iowans are voting in the Iowa Caucuses, and therefore Trump with a double-digit lead. Allow me to put those projected turnout numbers in perspective:
-- That's about a 200% voter increase from the highest Iowa Caucus turnout ever back in 2008.
-- The most voters we've had in a primary (which always has higher turnout) in Iowa this century is only 230,000. And our last U.S. Senate primary had only roughly 150,000 voters in 2014.
-- There are actually 11,000 fewer registered Republicans in Iowa this January than in January 2015.
Given those facts, I simply do not believe the projected turnout models in these polls. I have no idea why these polls have suddenly produced these massive turnout models in their weighting in the last week. Perhaps it's as simple as Trump has consistently polled lower in Iowa than everywhere else, and they're concerned with getting caught with their pants down come caucus night. I don't know. But there is absolutely zero evidence on the ground you're going to see a turnout that massive."
And regarding top line public polls and their history in Iowa, here's some history to remember:
- - In the final week of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, there were eight public polls released that had Hillary Clinton winning, and one even had John Edwards winning. Barack Obama's organization won by almost eight points, and out-performed the Real Clear Politics polling average by almost seven points.
-- In the final week of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, there were four public polls released that had Mitt Romney winning, and he lost by nine points. Mike Huckabee's organization out-performed the Real Clear Politics polling average by six points.
-- Back in 2004, the best John Kerry polled in any of the final Iowa Caucus polls was 23%. He won on caucus night with 37%.
-- No final public poll of Iowa back in 2012 had Rick Santorum higher than 18 percent (and that was only two of them), but on caucus night his organization out-performed the Real Clear Politics polling average by almost 10 points.
I cite these precedents as reasons why I'm giving the analysis I'm giving, and sticking with it despite the latest public opinion polls. That analysis is this -- the same people who typically vote in the caucuses will likely decide the outcome of this one. And in that case the best organization wins -- and the best organization belongs to Ted Cruz.
So if 300,000 people vote and these public polls -- that under-reported the size of the GOP wave in the 2014 midterms, and were off by 14 points in last November's Kentucky governor's election -- turn out to be right, I'll be the first one to admit I finally got one wrong.But I'll believe it when I see it.
Steve Deace has endorsed Ted Cruz for president.
The Des Moines Register has a good track record.
However, this is just one point outside the margin of error, iirc.
So, as always, it depends on turnout. I’ve checked the National Weather service for Des Moines (middle of state) for Monday, and it’s a high of 39 and cloudy. That’s not bad, so there will be no excuses. That’s almost sweater weather.
Whether large or small turnout, it depends on WHO turns out. Trump has a lead, but it’s only a slight lead. I have no illusions going into this. The time for propaganda in Iowa is just about over.
Yes, the Trump supporters are really warm and welcoming toward the rest of us. Why, just look at this thread where some TrumpTroll is insulting another FReeper and threatening to have her thrown off the site. I can't wait to "come together for the general" with people like that! /s/s/s/s/s/s
“Apparently a few Trump supporters want Jim Robinson to make this a “safe space” for them. ;-)”
I, for one, do not want Cruz supporters either banned or shut up. This is a political discussion board, not a Trump fan club. Presumably different opinions are encouraged.
From the beginning, though, I’ve asked Cruz supporters some very simple questions (such as “what do you see in this guy?”) and seen the majority of posts from them be either non-answers or insults (”If you like Trump, you’re a liberal!”). This led me to believe that many of them are not actually Cruz supporters AT ALL (since they don’t seem to actually be interested in the candidate they’re supposedly supporting) and are just leftist plants here to talk down Trump and disrupt the board. I’ve seen endless lies from these people, abuse, and wholesale regurgitation (as new threads) of seemingly EVERY deranged, anti-Trump propaganda hit piece the press can come up with (which, of course, means an endless number of them). It’s this kind of crap that should be stopped, as well as the personal insults and lies directed at Trump and the people who support HIM.
Regardless of what happens Monday, even the most hard-core Cruz supporter has to admit that the probability is that Trump is going to be the candidate. It serves no purpose whatsoever for “hit pieces” on the guy to be regurgitated here by self-professed Cruz supporters. Ultimately, it hurts our side and helps get the RAT elected.
Well, as I said, for my part I’d let anybody say anything, except of course, leftist visitors who need help finding the door. So, I don’t know what your former companion did to get the boot, if in fact that is true, but it is something to consider.
After reading several of the above posts, it is obvious the natives are getting restless and in some places mean and nasty. There isn’t one damn thing any of us can/will do to change what the outcome of Mondays nights turnout will be, it will be what it will be.
Like kids at Christmas time lets wait till morning to open our presents. As we wait for “morning”, to quote a once famous black man, “Can’t we all just get along?”
You are so right about “sitting back.” I was called a bimbo on another forum and I haven’t commented there again. I realize that as a Cruz supporter I need to grow a thicker skin, but I’m not there yet.
All to say that I admire and appreciate you, and I am hoping that in Iowa at least that the Trump support is not big, just loud.
I have a "companion?"
That's news to me.
...get the boot...
Again, why is that something you feel needs to be brought up to me?
: )
“POLITICAL OPERATIVE!!!!”
I’ve just read several posts in which you seem to be inviting Jim to Zot whom you think ought to be zotted...perhaps we should be looking at you instead?!! You want Cincinnatus Wife, who’s been here 5 years longer than you to be zotted, almost threatening her from the sound of your tone! You remind me of Wormtongue from the Lord of the Rings!
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