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The Best Pollster In Iowa Just Released Its Final Survey - How Accurate Has It Been?
FiveThirtyEight ^ | January 30, 2016 | Harry Enten

Posted on 01/31/2016 12:04:23 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife

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History suggests there are two types of candidates who tend to outperform their polls. The first is a candidate who does well among Christian conservatives. Selzer's final polls on the Republican side in 1988, 1996 and 2012 all missed the candidate favored by Christian conservatives by at least 8.5 percentage points. That could be good news for Cruz. Secondly, candidates with late momentum, such as Kerry in 2004 and Santorum in 2012, also tend to beat their polls. That could be beneficial to Rubio, who seems to be gaining in some polls.

In the Des Moines poll, Cruz has 33% of Evangelical conservatives in Iowa, Trump has 19%.

In the Des Moines poll, Cruz gets 28% of the voters who believe that the system is rigged against them (by the rich/government), Trump gets 20%.

In the Des Moines poll, Cruz is 2nd choice for 17%, Trump gets 7%.

In the Des Moines poll, Cruz's favorability is 65%, Trump's is 50%.

In the Des Moines poll, enthusiasm for Cruz is 56%, for Trump 44%.

According to poll analysis, voters are more comfortable with Cruz - more knowledgeable, better representative to the world.

According to poll analysis, in a one-on-one between Cruz and Trump, Cruz pulls 53% to Trump's 33%.

According to the poll analysis, if Evangelical conservatives caucus in large numbers, it favors Cruz.

1 posted on 01/31/2016 12:04:23 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I give Cruz 20% chance of winning....Trump 60%

I just hope we can all come together for the general after this brutal primary season! :-/


2 posted on 01/31/2016 12:07:46 AM PST by Bobalu (I told you so!)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Good luck with this. You are more than going to need it. BTW, libbylu got zotted. A cpl others too. Been nice (Not so) knowing you.


3 posted on 01/31/2016 12:08:22 AM PST by LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget (God punishes Conservatives by making them argue with fools: Go Trump!)
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To: LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget

“BTW, libbylu got zotted.”

WHERE??? I could use the laugh before I go to bed.

He/she/they will be back in a couple days I am sure.


4 posted on 01/31/2016 12:14:45 AM PST by Psalm 144 (This primary is raw Americana. Tom Sawyer versus Sid!)
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To: LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget

“So far, everyone that’s attacked me has gone right down the tubes.”
-Donald J. Trump

BTW, TBBT is gone as well.


5 posted on 01/31/2016 12:24:41 AM PST by Helicondelta
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To: LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget

You want me to be “zotted?”

What have I done to be kicked off of FR?


6 posted on 01/31/2016 12:25:24 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Psalm 144

She is a she and went off the deep end when a thread showing Heidi Cruz went **cookoo post birth was posted. Nothing wrong with **post partum stuff IMHO, but it made **libbylu go bat poop crazy.

**Note to self... Women are unpredictable and scary.


7 posted on 01/31/2016 12:27:26 AM PST by LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget (God punishes Conservatives by making them argue with fools: Go Trump!)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Backed the “wrong” candidate, it would seem.


8 posted on 01/31/2016 12:29:11 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (TED CRUZ 2016)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

You have done nothing but screed deary. Move on. Walker is gone. There are many steps to grief. Get over the anger part. I actually like you. I am just warning you many are gone. Jim has apparently had his fill of this crap.


9 posted on 01/31/2016 12:30:01 AM PST by LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget (God punishes Conservatives by making them argue with fools: Go Trump!)
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To: Helicondelta

Good. CW better watch herself. Her harpy screed has me at the end of my rope. I have to imagine the powers that be are getting close.


10 posted on 01/31/2016 12:35:49 AM PST by LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget (God punishes Conservatives by making them argue with fools: Go Trump!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

No different than being zotted here 4-5 years ago just for criticizing Sarah Palin

That would rain hell down on you from 90% of the forum and could result in the Lightning Ride from Fresno

Nobody complained the much did they?

Hell no people cheered....I got slimed just for saying I thought she was running even I’d just paid 700 bucks to see her at a relatively small private function

And btw....some of those folks who were the loudest callers for the zot then turned right around this time and ridiculed Sarah Palin for endorsing Trump

Primary season brings out the N&Ns

Nuts and Nasties

The Cruz or else crowd went bonkers because they got close and it hurts

I understand that part of it

He’s young and this race exposed his flaws....he can return

Trump likely will serve only one term...he needs to pick a good VP


11 posted on 01/31/2016 12:39:56 AM PST by wardaddy (Trump or Cruz.......its win win folks......so take a John Riggins pill .......lie on the carpet)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Trump 28% Cruz 25% is really pretty close. And the snow is gonna fall Monday night...I believe the Cruz’s true believers will prove the more hardy voters.


12 posted on 01/31/2016 12:40:31 AM PST by BridgeOutAhead (Obama.....dabit deus his quoque finem)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Oh, I don’t know 2DV - I know there is a huge backing for Ted Cruz on FR.

Ted Cruz’s supporters are just more polite and tend to “sit back” when swarmed by commenters who post over the top personal insults (I know first hand) - a tactic done to divert attention away from serious issues and from candidate vetting, by dragging the tenor of debate into a brawl.


13 posted on 01/31/2016 12:40:33 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: BridgeOutAhead

I’d read about the snow.

I agree with your take.


14 posted on 01/31/2016 12:41:09 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Selzer is a great pollster; REALLY good.

This article is correct; the entire thing hinges on Trump’s supporters actually attending the caucus. The extreme wing of evangelicals WILL be there duly supporting Cruz as instructed.

The Trump campaign knows this and is doing a good job of educating new attendees as to how/where to cast their vote. Generally, it is very difficult to get normal people to show up at these things...but I think we may just do it this time!


15 posted on 01/31/2016 12:41:42 AM PST by garandgal
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To: LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget

What “crap”?


16 posted on 01/31/2016 12:41:54 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: garandgal

It’s up to the caucus voters and we’ll know soon.


17 posted on 01/31/2016 12:43:11 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
What have I done to be kicked off of FR?

Apparently a few Trump supporters want Jim Robinson to make this a "safe space" for them. ;-)

18 posted on 01/31/2016 12:44:29 AM PST by Rightwing Conspiratr1
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To: wardaddy

Do you see Trump’s flaws?


19 posted on 01/31/2016 12:44:46 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Nice numbers!

According to poll analysis, in a one-on-one between Cruz and Trump, Cruz pulls 53% to Trump's 33%.

That is what stings so badly! We could get Trump, a candidate most GOPers DO NOT WANT, let alone most general election voters, just because of vote-splitting among everyone else. This suggests heavily that Cruz must stay in all the way to the end, because as other candidates drop out, support will coalesce among Cruz.

This poll also shows that Cruz would only get 1 delegate less than Trump if the results stand. So not a substantive "loss" at all.

20 posted on 01/31/2016 12:45:21 AM PST by JediJones ("How stupid are the people of Iowa?" -Donald Trump, November 12, 2015)
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