Posted on 04/30/2015 4:56:05 AM PDT by RoosterRedux
Chinese strategists see a window of strategic opportunity for China early in the 21st century, though they havent publicly outlined the basis for that view. But we can make a good stab at it. Firstly, an air of inevitability is important in winning battles. While China is perceived to have a strong, growing economy that is crushing all before it, that perception of inevitability rubs off on Chinas military adventures. To use that perception, China has to attack before its economy contracts due to the bursting of its real estate bubble. This explains the current rush to build the bases in the Spratly Islands.
Another problem for China is that its aggression and increased military spending has caused its neighbors to rearm and form alliances. China is better off attacking before its neighbors arm themselves further.
Another consideration is the US presidential electoral cycle. President Obama is perceived to be a weak president and the Chinese might rather attack before he is replaced. President Obama has made the right noises, though, about Chinese irredentism and the coming war remains quite popular in the US military, in that the different services are jockeying for position, which means they have official blessing to the highest level. President Obama does have some inconsistent policies that aid China, though, in that while a strong economy is needed to fight China, his administration is doing its best to choke the US economy with carbon dioxide-related regulations. The two ends are mutually exclusive.
President Obama spent a period of his childhood in Indonesia and would have heard a lot of anti-Chinese sentiment (the Chinese were and are more successful merchants and shopkeepers) in those formative years. As with Valerie Jarretts childhood in Iran, this will affect policy.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Great post.
The Australians are in for the biggest SURPRISE! when they realize that the Chinese Navy has moved into the Coral Sea—and the Bass Straight.
Someone mentioned the sealift capabilities. In addition, wars that are fought today with missiles and rockets do not solve the land acquisition issues China is having. To take Taiwan, they need a large naval force and landing party. You can no longer slip these types of things under the radar.
One of Clancy’s last books was: “The Bear and the Dragon”.
It revolved around the discovery of oil and gold in Siberia, the invasion by China and the war with Russia aided by NATO. Yes, Russia joins NATO.
This is the most important one. It has the air of inevitability for me. I am sure that history has several examples where this is true.
China can do what Muslims do - get the world involved in their wars - so other people kill off their surplus men.
Or the Chinese can use other Muslim tricks - tell the surplus men they can have sex with over 70 virgins for eternity if they'll just kill themselves...
Or better they can pit the surplus men against each other... and let them kill each other. Like Muslims are doing now...
Actually, it won't happen. The Chinese might choose thuggy leaders but they're basically an ethical people... they'll never fall to the level of Islamists.
Later
A perfectly good way to avert war, in keeping with obama/leftist tradition, would be to have Kerry negotiate a pre-war peace settlement. Possibly just retire all of our armed forces, and give the Chinese all our bases in exchange for campaign contributions to the DNC.
Let’s face it, they don’t give a rats a$$ about all the illegals coming in, whats a couple more million Chinese troops? Think of the billions saved on defense that could be used to create vote buying schemes.
From here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3170217/posts
“The world, undoubtedly, is at a precipice. We are facing the biggest economic collapse in the history of the world. As the worlds police force is now led by an empty suit leaving a trail of political failures, despots worldwide are limited only by their ability to overpower the defenses of the villages, towns and cities before them. And they are getting stronger and ever more aggressive, only to see our leaders attack with ever vanishing red lines and hashtags. And the once leader of the free world will be replaced in January of 2017, so they know their time is short.”
We are living in the calm before the storm.
I apologize for quoting myself, but it’s easier than typing it all up again.
“Not to worry - we wont make it to 2017....”
I agree. See tag line.
Seven years later and still no attack.
This is not to say that China will never attack Taiwan, or the US, but that it is not as likely as it is made to seem, and if/when it happens it will be sudden and unforeseen (which means it will not be under open discussion on FR before it happens).
I personally place such predictions just under the predictions of 'October Surprises' and discovered 'birth certificates/university transcripts' that would sprout up during the last two election cycles.
Geography both protects China and constrains it from projecting military power. In addition, Japan, Russia, Vietnam, South Korea, and India are adversarial regional powers that are checks against Chinese expansionism.
China needs women. 1 kid policy screwed most military age males for the next 20 years.
But Iran is highly likely to start a war before their advocates Obama and Jarrett leave office. It is still unclear what sides Western nations will line up on. We may see such unlikely combinations as European, Turkish, Saudi, and ISIS forces shaking hands and working together to save the petrodollar from the nefarious Russian/Iranian Axis.
Because we cant ever pay the $2T they have loaned US?
This article was written by the CIA.
Putin would go Nuclear in any war—the Chinese know this—they will look south! Vietnam is my bet—then Malaya and oil rich Indonesia. Yes, they need women—they can capture all they want! China will move to keep her population in line and forestall a revolution—a communist revolution from her peasants. I foresee a naval war—maybe targeting Japan? the threat of Nukes will keep the Japanese at bay.
Ultimatly South Korea will be theirs to plunder and Burma.
I believe it will happen quick—2016 is my bet.
If they attack US forces we renounce any debt owed to China. They will seize US business interests, but they have those anyway and business who put up infrastructure in a communist state and didn’t think it would be seized deserves what it gets.
If we make the fight an air/sea battle with limited land engagements and string it out a few months we win going away. The wild cards: obama, he is more dangerous than Iran, North Korea and China to the USA, North Korea invading South Korea and will the Chinese faced with humiliation bring out nukes and use them.
If China moves in the east, will Vladimir I use the distraction to annex eastern Ukraine, the Baltics, and maybe a chunk of Poland?
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