Posted on 02/01/2015 5:15:38 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
This morning, Nate Cohn of the New York Times Upshot tries to answer the question asked by many Tea Party leaning Republicans in southern states: Why does it seem that the GOP presidential candidate always ends up being a moderate, rather than a ‘true conservative?’ And, he finds some interesting data about the power of the GOP in the states won by President Obama:
But the blue-state Republicans still possess the delegates, voters and resources to decide the nomination. In 2012, there were more Romney voters in California than in Texas, and in Chicago’s Cook County than in West Virginia. Mr. Romney won three times as many voters in overwhelmingly Democratic New York City than in Republican-leaning Alaska.
Overall, 59 percent of Romney voters in the Republican primaries lived in the states carried by President Obama. Those states hold 50 percent of the delegates to the Republican National Convention, even though they contain just 19 percent of Republican senators. Just 11 percent of House Republicans hail from districts that voted for President Obama.
The article, which is well worth reading in its entirety, talks about the difficulties a conservative such as Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee would have trying to win the presidential nomination, especially because Republican voters in states represented by and large by Democrats tend to be more moderate than those from the south.
It concludes by bringing up Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp’s effort to organize an SEC Primary, which would let the states with SEC schools, along with some others, vote on March 1st, 2016–the first date states other than the traditional four early primary states can have a primary election. The goal is to give the redder GOP states a bigger voice in selecting the party’s nominee.
In a Sunday AJC story by Greg Bluestein and Kristina Torres, Kemp says he’s aiming to have Georgia influence the choice of nominee.
“We’re on the national map, and that’s really what we wanted,” said Kemp, who next week will update his colleagues and brainstorm on how to move ahead with the plan while attending a national conference in Washington. “We wanted the candidates to know this was going to happen: The SEC primary is going to be a happening event. And our voters here will be able to participate in that process.” … Already, supporters say they are seeing ripple effects. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a potential GOP candidate who won Georgia’s 2008 primary, visited Georgia last week to meet with voters. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, another potential contender, met with Republican-leaning business leaders and donors last week in Atlanta. And state Republican officials expect a slew of presidential candidates at the party’s May convention in Athens.
Would an SEC primary succeed in nominating a more conservative candidate for president? Perhaps, but as the AJC story points out, that will depend on whether voters in the SEC Primary unify around a single candidate, or whether they split their votes among several candidates.
Large regional primary favors candidates that already have tens of millions of dollars.
How about state with highest percent of Republican votes in last presidential election leads off primary season for the next?
Hopefully Texas MOVES ITS PRIMARY FORWARD and gets to have a say in the selection process...something they haven’t had in DECADES.
If that happens...watch for Ted Cruz.
So do General Elections
Liberal states with country club republicans are killing the conservative voice of the Republican Party. This is by design.
Hopefully Texas MOVES ITS PRIMARY FORWARD .......
I sure hope so. I am not from Texas but I want traditional red states having a say in the nomination.
I am also sick of open primaries — liberals and demos deciding the republican nominee.
I agree with you. Determine order based on voting support.
In 2012, there were more Romney voters in California than in Texas, and in Chicago’s Cook County than in West Virginia. Mr. Romney won three times as many voters in overwhelmingly Democratic New York City than in Republican-leaning Alaska.Sure, but getting rid of the Electoral College would mean that the POTUS would be elected, uh, by the larger, uh...
The primary system is rigged so that moderates/establisment/elites have more power. Even in the conservative states there are rules like allowing cross over votes from democrats that give moderates more strength. Most of the cross over voting is allowed in more conservative/Southern states. I believe this is by design.
The GOPe does not want to give up its power and JEB! wants to win without conservatives anyway. The GOPe won’t be enthusiastic about changing the rules to make it more fair for conservatives. If anything, they will make it more likely that JEB! wins the moderate states, gets some votes in conservative states, takes Florida (Perry and Cruz will split TX) and JEB! gets all the super delegates to win. They really don’t care what the “little people” want. It’s all about holding on to their power.
Who picked these people?
Now I understand why the RP is called the Stupid Party.
Power must be wrenched from the hands of the liberal elite Republicrats. They enable ruling against the will and interests of Americans.
Iowa and Vermont .. voted for Republicans 1 out of last 7 (combined Iowa 1 Vt 0 ) times.. why should they have such a disproportionate say in the Republican Primary?
South Carolina is third......I mean if you can’t talk conservatives into voting then what can we do. Iowa just elected a Tea Party Candidate so it can be done with the Presidential Primary too.
There ought to be a penalty for delegations from states that have not voted Republican at least two of the last four elections, thereby eliminating many northern and states on both coasts.
One glaring problem with the republican primary system is winner-take-all states being primarily blue or purple states, and they invariably allow cross-over voting.
So, one guy walks away with everything and the others get nothing.
In red states, more likely to award votes by district or percentage, that is not balanced out.
Make the red states winner take all with no crossover or change the blue states to shared delegate results.
Utah? Good thing Romney’s not running. ;d
Okay, Texas and Oklahoma should move to the front of the line, agreed, Wyoming, Dakotas, etc. too. Who decides this?
Would it not be the State Parties that would move it up? And yes, No cross-over voting, that is silly especially with how liberal the Democratic Party platform is and how Conservative the Republican base is.
“South Carolina is third . . .”
South Carolina also allows cross over voting. It also appears Lindsay Graham, the moderate Republican senator from SC, will be running in the SC primary for the Republican Presidential nomination.
Is Graham serious about running or is his run an establishment ploy to prevent a Cruz victory in this early conservative state primary? If Graham is on the SC ballot he will likely beat Cruz with the help of Democrat crossover voters.
My error.. I shoul have said new hampshire not vt..
which would make it 3 out of last 7 .. woop.
1 Iowa 2 NH that is 3 out of 14.
There is no one principled way to decide among multiple candidates. Best would be to have a multi-vote system in which the voter designates his first preference and his second preference as well. The voter can abstain from a second choice. Add half the second-choice votes to the first-choice totals, and use that ranking to apportion the delegates. Do that in all states, and you will have an open convention in which the delegates have to hammer out an acceptable candidate.Perhaps a Louisiana-style “jungle primary” might be employed, if you really didn’t want a convention with any responsibility. But of course, NO DEMOCRATS ALLOWED in the Republican primary!!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.