Posted on 11/02/2014 9:30:08 AM PST by expat_panama
Investment & Finance Thread Market Rally Progress Report
Stocks are up and metals are down.
Details: major stock indexes have been showing a run up for the past three weeks --enough time to look at trading patterns. The past two uptrends (w/ both the NASDAQ and the S&P500) seemed to come in two parts, a 3-4 week burst followed by a month & a half stalling before the drop off. OK, so there's no law that says the current run-up has to follow suit but what we know is that for the next week prices within the trendlines are "business as usual".
Not much help from the pundits because they're taking all sides. Makes it difficult to get good input either in the form of sage advice or as a stupid-pundit contrarian indicator.
Stocks Zoom, Confirming Moricis Prediction I have written that the fundamentals of capital formation and stock market valuations have changed, and indicate stocks are capable of maintaining a much higher P/E ratio than that historical average going forward. U.S. Recovery Is the Envy Of the World - Chico Harlan, Washington Post Obama's Incompetence Explains The Poor Recovery - Editorial, Investor's Latest Rebound Says Bear Isn't In the Cards - Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch The World's Richest Are Bullish On the U.S. - Margaret Collins, Bloomberg |
As for metals the chaotic downtrends show few repeating patterns, so we're still looking at a decline that began at the 2011 top. If anyone sees a decent pattern they're sure welcome to MicrosoftPaint some trendlines and share.
In the mean time let's see what Tuesday's elections do --remembering that past Democrat surprise victories were followed by 10 - 20% stock losses.
This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our-- Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well. Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket, economy. |
I’ve heard that “predatory lender” meme for years. I’ve been a volunteer loan officer for a credit union for fifteen years. I’ve reviewed and approved/declined thousands of loans. Every single applicant came in to apply of their own volition. We’ve never held a gun to anyone and made them sign.
As opposed to say, property and income taxes. Try skipping those payments, and the Power of the State is employed against you. Guns, jails, the whole works.
Who are the predators?
I totally agree with you. We have a predatory government and bureaucrats. Lenders, on the other hand, compete for my business.
What I was thinking about was that in the commercial loan sector the focus is really more on doing a job and getting a day's work done --and not as much on the triumph of good over evil. That's why I tend to see loan charge-offs more the result of economics than being caused by people's deadbeat mindsets. My reasoning is that it doesn't make sense to believe so many people decided to forsake character in '09 and then suddenly seek redemption a year later.
--and a very happy Friday morning to all! This is supposed to be the end of a busy week but for some reason or other everything's starting up more frantic than ever. OK, so yesterday metals'n'stocks were flat and they're tepid today (futures: mtls +0.12, stks -0.01) but it's a direction change w/ stocks hinting at rally-top/consolidation and metal switching to basing mode. Big report dump--
Nonfarm Payrolls
Nonfarm Private Payrolls
Unemployment Rate
Hourly Earnings
Average Workweek
Consumer Credit
--and the news is all over the place:
U.S. Economic Growth Is All an Illusion - John Crudele, New York Post
Doubting the Economic Data? Consider the Source - Floyd Norris, NYT
Did Wall Street Buy This Election? - David Weidner, MarketWatch
It's the Economy, and They're Not Stupid - Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital
Opposition Congress Could Be Good for Growth - Jeffrey Dorfman, Forbes
Very Motivated Voters Shatter Monetary Delusions - Jeffrey Snider, RCM
GOP Congress Should Start Fixing the Fed - Seth Lipsky, New York Post
dang!
And try to separate reality from ideology. In 1983, when the economy accelerated after the early 1980s recessions, some liberals were sure the numbers had to be wrong, given that it was obvious nothing good could come from the policies of President Ronald Reagan.In 2010, there were widespread forecasts by conservatives that the economy could not improve, that inflation was bound to accelerate and the dollar would collapse if the Fed foolishly pursued its policy of quantitative easing.
All those forecasts turned out to be wrong. Does that mean the forecasters were mistaken? Some would rather think it shows the statistics are being faked.
People here are the worst... 99% of them have no idea what is going on with the entire set of economic data. Much simpler for them to believe "Obama is faking the numbers." It's just ignorant and it makes conservatives look like rubes.
--meaning freepers we meet on the other threads ;)
Still, simply not knowing what's going on isn't the problem (imho) but instead it's how folks decide that some fiction really exists (examples: 'soaring federal hiring' or 'runaway hyperinflation' etc.). We're dealing w/ a toxic willful ignorance that's chosen a doom'n'gloom fantasy ahead of their own lying eyes.
That said, the word "worst" suggests there are other places where it's better. I've really looked at other political/economic forums online and my experience is that after seeing the competition I see the Freerepublic looking more like a paradise of illumined clarity. OK so having things worse elsewhere doesn't make willful ignorance here somehow good, but I'm saying that I'm grateful for the thinkers I've met here and I find the experience I get with our stuck-on-stupids comes in handy in my dealings w/ in-laws.
In the meantime, if you ever do come across another forum where posters actually check reality before ranting, please let me know...
Is this really as good as it looks or am I missing something?
Overall I think good.
9th straight month +200K
Employed population ratio highest since 2009
Sept revised from +248k to +256k
August revised from +180k to +203k
U6 falls to 11.5% from 11.8%
No wage growth (good and bad news)
since last year employment went up 4 million and the population only went up 2 million. Stock index futures liked it...
Stone McCarthy’s First Take:
Nonfarm payrolls rose 214,000 in October. Private payrolls rose 209,000 in the month, and government jobs were up 5,000. There was a revision in September to 256,000 (previously 248,000) and August was revised to 203,000 (previously 180,000). The combined rise for October payrolls and an upward revision of 31,000 to the prior two months nets out to a gain close to market expectations. A glance at the October headline might be initially disappointing, but most of the data in the report remains consistent with a sustained improvement in the labor market. In particular, the one-tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 5.8%, and one-tenth uptick in the participation rate to 62.8 add an encouraging tone to the numbers.
Our forecast was for nonfarm payrolls to rise by 250,000 in October, and was above the median in the Bloomberg survey of up 235,000. The range was from up 140,000 to up 314,000.
For the third quarter, payroll increases were up 234,000 a month compared to an average of 267,000 a month for the second quarter. October’s 214,000 sets a somewhat slower pace at the start of the fourth quarter, but is still on track for moderate gains in payrolls. The six-month moving average in October was at 235,000 per month.
FOMC participants will have another month to consider these numbers before the December 16-17 meeting, as well as the November employment report set for release on Friday, December 8. We think policymakers will keep to the same sort of assessment of an improved labor market while remaining cautious and patient in regard to reducing policy accommodation.
Service-providers had a 181,000 increase in payrolls in October, while goods producers saw an increase of 28,000. Among goods-producers, construction was up 12,000, and manufacturing was up 15,000. Among service-providers, there was a solid gain for professional and business services of up 37,000, of which 15,000 was due to temporary help. Retail trade gained 27,000 and trade and transportation was up 49,000. Altogether, these show respectable gains for payrolls.
Average hourly earnings were up 0.1% at $24.57 in October from $24.54 in September. The workweek was up one-tenth to 34.6. These are modest increases, but moving in the right direction.
The index of aggregate weekly payrolls rose 0.6% to 119.4, after an up 0.2% reading in September and up 0.5% in August. We view this index as a measure of the quality of employment. The underlying trend remains one of moderate gains for the past ten months.
The unemployment rate declined one-tenth to 5.8% in October from September. The unrounded unemployment rate was 5.756%, down from the 5.942% in the prior month. This is a notable decline. Bloomberg survey expectations centered at 5.9% within a range of 5.8% to 6.1%. Our forecast was for 5.9%. The participation rate was up one-tenth to 62.8%. While it has been little changed over the past seven months, a hint of firmer participation is welcome. More interesting, the number of workers unemployment for 27 weeks or more fell to 2.916 million in October, down from 2.954 million in September, and the remained below the 3-million mark for a third month for the first time since February 2009. The number of workers employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.027 million in October from 7.103 million in the prior month, continuing its march lower.
On the whole, the FOMC will find these data encouraging for the removal of slack from the labor market, although still at high levels for the un- and underemployed.
Like Truman always said, we need more one-handed economists.
:-)
Sigh... It's just so simple for them to say "I don't believe the numbers..." and ignore all the data. Idiots.
There's another view that sees it less as stupidity and more from a strong sense of conviction and dedication to a heart-felt ideology.
To me Chart 11. Duration of unemployment sheds much light on The gap between claims and UE that you posted above.
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