Posted on 10/03/2014 7:19:41 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Republicans seem to be pulling away in the race to win a majority in the U.S. Senate. At least this week.
In mid-September, several polls seemed to be going the other way. The well-informed Washington Post analyst Chris Cillizza wrote that for the first time in this election cycle, odds favored the Democrats keeping their majority.
Two weeks later, he was singing another tune. Analysts at the Post, the New York Times, and FiveThirtyEight, in addition to psephologists Charlie Cook, Stuart Rothenberg, and Larry Sabato, all agreed.
What may have happened is this: Over the summer, Democrats used their money advantage to savage Republican opponents. When spending got equalized in September, Republicans’ numbers rose.
So Republicans retain big leads to pick up three open seats in states carried by Mitt Romney –West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota. Republican nominees have moved ahead of three Democratic incumbents in Romney states (Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana) and in two target states carried by President Obama (Colorado and Iowa).
Only in North Carolina, which Romney narrowly carried, has the Republican not yet overtaken the incumbent Democrat senator Kay Hagan — and her edge is narrowing in the most recent polls.
Psephologists used to have a rule that incumbents running below 50 percent against lesser-known challengers would inevitably lose. Everyone knows them, the logic went, and half aren’t voting for them.
That rule doesn’t seem to apply anymore, but perhaps another one does. The Real Clear Politics average of recent polls puts Democratic incumbents in these five states at 41 to 44 percent of the vote.
In seriously contested races in the last six Senate cycles, starting with 2002, only two incumbents polling at that level in September ended up winning. One was appointed to an open seat and thus probably was not widely known.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
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AS ONE EXAMPLE Obamacare's healthcare.gov is a HUGE voter fraud machine-------plugging unsuspecting enrollees into Democrat voter rolls.
REALITY CHECK Local couple upset after receiving pre-marked voter registration card from "Covered California" (Cali O/Care)
10news | 03-29-2014 | Preston Phillips / FR Posted by Kevin in California
A local couple called 10News concerned after they received an envelope from the state's Obamacare website, "Covered California." Inside was a letter discussing voter registration and a registration card pre-marked with an "x" in the box next to Democratic Party.
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Turns out Obamacare is also a vehicle for consolidating Dummycrat power.....w/ a multi-billion dollar slush fund.
The Untraceable $8 Billion ObamaCare PR Budget---truly govt fraud at its finest. Egged on by Pelosi, no one in Congress told Americans about Section 4002---which mandates an $8B untraceable fund to "promote" Obamacare (Dummycrat govt fraud unlimited).
In 2010 Taxpayers are extorted $500 million, in 2011, $750 million, 2012, $1 billion, 2013, $1.25 billion, 2014, $1.5 billion and in 2015 and on, $2 billion........
Voter fraud mechanics....the reasons for all those O/Care delays, fixits, exemptions, waivers, extensions, etc........
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Not to mention the hordes swarming at the border---a smokescreen for massive votino fraud.
Obama's only concerns are: A) Is this good for me? B) Is this good for the Democrat Party? C) Is this good for liberalism? He's not a president---he's a credentialer.
He employs the power of the presidency to credential marginal people....using familiar tools:
<><> appointing imbeciles to top govt jobs, so they get plush jobs post-govt;
<><> the endless photo-ops, pumping weak resumes;
<><> handing out govt money to credential dubious liberal projects (Solyndra)...
<><> the proliferating foreign aid scams...
<><> emptying out Turd World lowlifes onto the backs of US taxpayers.......
And so on and so forth, ad infinitum, ad nauseaum
“Have the Democrats paid Barone to pitch this forecast so GOP voters don’t bother to vote because “the election is in the bag?””
Most Republican/conservative voters pay taxes, or at least did before retirement, and taxpayers tend to vote in every election.
Midterm elections will always favor Republicans, because there will always be something on the ballot that effects their pocketbook.
Other than government employees like school teachers pushing tax increases, the majority of the Demonrat base don’t show up for state/local elections.
I am not seeing a wave that Barone is seeing, but rather an advantage. I however am concerned that even if the GOP does well, too many candidates will take away the wrong message from the election.
Conventional polling cannot account for the modern democrat fraud machine. It’s pretty clear it leans heavily on early voting, extended voting and same day registration since all are touchstones of claims of racism whenever efforts are made to reign in the practices.
What difference at this point does it make?
I would rather it crash and burn quickly than elect a rino and prolong the pain.
They didn't do too bad in 2006 when they regained control of Congress.
You underestimate the Dem GOTV machine, which has become ferocious. And add to that voter fraud.
They didn't do too bad in 2006 when they regained control of Congress.
You underestimate the Dem GOTV machine, which has become ferocious. And add to that voter fraud.
What GOP reps do you see as being endagered?
Historically, that has been true. But the past is not necessarily an indicator of future results. The Dems have developed a very sophisticated and powerful GOTV machine. I can tell you that here in VA, Ed Gillespie has no chance of defeating Mark Warner. And anyone who thinks that defeating Dem incumbents will be easy, is delusional.
I fear the Dems aided by the MSM are setting up the GOP for a major fall. They have created the expectation of a giant GOP wave and when that is not achieved, even if the GOP realizes modest gains, it will be portrayed as a defeat.
Who would have thought it?
Who would have believed it?
The shining beacon of liberty, justice, fraternity! Home of the American dream! The greatest hope of mankind and the world!
The magnificent illumination of enlightenment here on earth.
What the men who stormed the beaches of Normandy--to rid the world of the evil of Naziism--what they fought and died for!
No foreign power could have defeated the United States. Only decay and moral rot within could possibly do it.
Millions of Americans are still in denial. Note tagline.
Well. I guess we disagree here. Even though demographic trends do benefit the Dems in high turnout presidential elections, I still think the Dem base will be fairly depressed this November. In the midterm elections, it is the party out of power which tends to be most motivated, this especially pronounced in the 6th year of an incumbent administration and BHO’s poll numbers today are about where GWB’s were at this time in his administration. Nearly every expert believes the GOP will make gains in both houses of Congress this November. The only question is by how much.
I agree that Gillespie is a long shot in VA.
But I do think the GOP will pick up WV,SD, MT, AK, AR, LA,IA,and CO.
Has a great chance in NH,NC
Outside shot in MN, OR, and MI
Anyhoo, we’ll know in about four weeks. I sense the GOP base is energized, independents have turned against BHO, and the Dem base is less than thrilled this year. But we’ll know in a few weeks and we’ll compare notes.
An assumption without foundation. A number of states have placed marijuana legalization on the ballot to attract young Dem voters, i.e., Alaska and Arkansas. Again, I would not underestimate the Dem GOTV effort and the huge advantage they have over the Reps in campaign funds.
In the midterm elections, it is the party out of power which tends to be most motivated, this especially pronounced in the 6th year of an incumbent administration and BHO’s poll numbers today are about where GWB’s were at this time in his administration. Nearly every expert believes the GOP will make gains in both houses of Congress this November. The only question is by how much.
The conventional wisdom isn't always correct. Given what is at stake, the Dems will spare no effort, legal and illegal, to prevent a takeover of the Senate. The GOP was supposed to have taken the Senate in 2012, but fell short despite many more Dem seats up for election.
I agree that Gillespie is a long shot in VA.
He has no shot.
But I do think the GOP will pick up WV,SD, MT, AK, AR, LA,IA,and CO.
The only real sure bets are WV, SD, and MT, which are vacant Dem seats. AK, AR, LA, and CO have Dem incumbents, which will make them very tough to take. There is no way the Reps take them all. They would be lucky to get two of the four. IA could be another one the GOP has a shot at.
Has a great chance in NH,NC
The Reps will lose both against Dem incumbents. Both GOP candidates are losers.
Outside shot in MN, OR, and MI
Wishful thinking.
Anyhoo, we’ll know in about four weeks. I sense the GOP base is energized, independents have turned against BHO, and the Dem base is less than thrilled this year. But we’ll know in a few weeks and we’ll compare notes.
I look forward to it. Take care.
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