Well. I guess we disagree here. Even though demographic trends do benefit the Dems in high turnout presidential elections, I still think the Dem base will be fairly depressed this November. In the midterm elections, it is the party out of power which tends to be most motivated, this especially pronounced in the 6th year of an incumbent administration and BHO’s poll numbers today are about where GWB’s were at this time in his administration. Nearly every expert believes the GOP will make gains in both houses of Congress this November. The only question is by how much.
I agree that Gillespie is a long shot in VA.
But I do think the GOP will pick up WV,SD, MT, AK, AR, LA,IA,and CO.
Has a great chance in NH,NC
Outside shot in MN, OR, and MI
Anyhoo, we’ll know in about four weeks. I sense the GOP base is energized, independents have turned against BHO, and the Dem base is less than thrilled this year. But we’ll know in a few weeks and we’ll compare notes.
An assumption without foundation. A number of states have placed marijuana legalization on the ballot to attract young Dem voters, i.e., Alaska and Arkansas. Again, I would not underestimate the Dem GOTV effort and the huge advantage they have over the Reps in campaign funds.
In the midterm elections, it is the party out of power which tends to be most motivated, this especially pronounced in the 6th year of an incumbent administration and BHO’s poll numbers today are about where GWB’s were at this time in his administration. Nearly every expert believes the GOP will make gains in both houses of Congress this November. The only question is by how much.
The conventional wisdom isn't always correct. Given what is at stake, the Dems will spare no effort, legal and illegal, to prevent a takeover of the Senate. The GOP was supposed to have taken the Senate in 2012, but fell short despite many more Dem seats up for election.
I agree that Gillespie is a long shot in VA.
He has no shot.
But I do think the GOP will pick up WV,SD, MT, AK, AR, LA,IA,and CO.
The only real sure bets are WV, SD, and MT, which are vacant Dem seats. AK, AR, LA, and CO have Dem incumbents, which will make them very tough to take. There is no way the Reps take them all. They would be lucky to get two of the four. IA could be another one the GOP has a shot at.
Has a great chance in NH,NC
The Reps will lose both against Dem incumbents. Both GOP candidates are losers.
Outside shot in MN, OR, and MI
Wishful thinking.
Anyhoo, we’ll know in about four weeks. I sense the GOP base is energized, independents have turned against BHO, and the Dem base is less than thrilled this year. But we’ll know in a few weeks and we’ll compare notes.
I look forward to it. Take care.