Historically, that has been true. But the past is not necessarily an indicator of future results. The Dems have developed a very sophisticated and powerful GOTV machine. I can tell you that here in VA, Ed Gillespie has no chance of defeating Mark Warner. And anyone who thinks that defeating Dem incumbents will be easy, is delusional.
I fear the Dems aided by the MSM are setting up the GOP for a major fall. They have created the expectation of a giant GOP wave and when that is not achieved, even if the GOP realizes modest gains, it will be portrayed as a defeat.
Well. I guess we disagree here. Even though demographic trends do benefit the Dems in high turnout presidential elections, I still think the Dem base will be fairly depressed this November. In the midterm elections, it is the party out of power which tends to be most motivated, this especially pronounced in the 6th year of an incumbent administration and BHO’s poll numbers today are about where GWB’s were at this time in his administration. Nearly every expert believes the GOP will make gains in both houses of Congress this November. The only question is by how much.
I agree that Gillespie is a long shot in VA.
But I do think the GOP will pick up WV,SD, MT, AK, AR, LA,IA,and CO.
Has a great chance in NH,NC
Outside shot in MN, OR, and MI
Anyhoo, we’ll know in about four weeks. I sense the GOP base is energized, independents have turned against BHO, and the Dem base is less than thrilled this year. But we’ll know in a few weeks and we’ll compare notes.