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Byron York: Winning Hispanic vote would not be enough for GOP
Washington Examiner ^ | May 2, 2013 | Byron York

Posted on 05/03/2013 10:27:43 AM PDT by Will88

"But what if Romney had been able to reach a mind-blowing 70 percent of the Hispanic vote? Surely that would have meant victory, right? No, it wouldn't. Romney still would have lost, although by the narrowest of electoral margins, 270 to 268. (Under that scenario, Romney would have won the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College; he could have racked up huge numbers of Hispanic votes in California, New York and Texas, for example, and not changed the results in those states."

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2014midterms; byronyork; elections; hispanic; hispanics; hispanicvote; latinos; outreach
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Byron York calculated scenarios assuming Mitt Romney won up to 70% of the Hispanic vote in 2012 and he would still have lost to Obama. Just one more illustration of how the Republicans in pursuit of the Hispanic vote are wasting their while losing many white votes from voters who are offended and sick of GOPe pandering to groups.
1 posted on 05/03/2013 10:27:43 AM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88

They don’t call ‘em the Stupid Party for nothin’.


2 posted on 05/03/2013 10:35:10 AM PDT by Nea Wood (When life gets too hard to stand, kneel.)
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To: Will88

Clearly, if Republicans want to get elected, they need to somehow win over the dead people vote.

Dead people are one of the Democrats’ most reliable voting blocks. Plus they vote early and often.


3 posted on 05/03/2013 10:36:29 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation Continues)
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To: Will88

Klueless Karl Rove is again proven to be wrong. Far more White conservatives will stay home again if the GOP goes the McCain/Rubio route for amnesty.


4 posted on 05/03/2013 10:38:01 AM PDT by txrefugee
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To: txrefugee

If white voters stay home again, the country really will be finished.


5 posted on 05/03/2013 10:41:18 AM PDT by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults)
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To: Nea Wood
Likewise, the white vote is so large that an improvement of 4 points -- going from 60 percent to 64 percent of those whites who did vote -- would have won the race for Romney.

The GOP is definitetly the stupid party as they constantly prove. And they seem to have a policy of offending white voters, especially the Tea Party types and Sarah Palin admirers and conservatives in general.

I wonder if they'll ever figure out that it's the white voters staying home now that who are withholding their winning margins in elections. Chasing the Latino vote is a fool's errand.

6 posted on 05/03/2013 10:41:27 AM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88

The GOP needs to stop with the fantasy scenarios and get down to the very serious work of trying to win governorships and Congressional races. The White House isn’t in the cards anymore.


7 posted on 05/03/2013 10:44:11 AM PDT by ScottinVA ( Liberal is to patriotism as Kermit Gosnell is to neonatal care.)
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To: txrefugee
Klueless Karl Rove is again proven to be wrong. Far more White conservatives will stay home again if the GOP goes the McCain/Rubio route for amnesty.

True, and not inviting Palin to speak at the GOP convention and practically barring any mention of Tea Party sentiment cost them many votes in 2012. Such stunts as that and amnesty would cost them more votes in the future.

They'd be be better off forgetting about the Obama/Schumer/McCain/Rubio amnesty, but they won't.

8 posted on 05/03/2013 10:47:36 AM PDT by Will88
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To: ScottinVA
The White House isn’t in the cards anymore.

If the GOP 'leadership' continues on its current path that's probably true, but if they'd end the pandering to groups and start presenting consistent and principled policies to everyone, they might get back in the WH. And, of course, an intelligent and appealing candidate would help.

9 posted on 05/03/2013 10:52:41 AM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88

There are factions within the black coalition partner of the Democrat party. Some of them are ripe for disaffiliation!


10 posted on 05/03/2013 11:03:48 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Bubba_Leroy
Look, we got rid of the dead people, the New Yorkers, the denizens of Connecticut and New Jersey down in Florida and we still lost.

You would be wise to ask how we did that ~ and it's simple. We lost the Charlie Crist faction! The guy had fans and somehow the local Republican machine and the Rubio faction completely forgot about Charlie.

11 posted on 05/03/2013 11:06:29 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Will88

It’s all about demographics now....not so much about the economy anymore. Romney actually won a higher percentage of the white vote in 2012 than Ronald Reagan won in 1980, meaning that if demographics had not changed dramatically since 1980, Romney would have won in an even greater landslide that Reagan did that year (he only lost six states).


12 posted on 05/03/2013 11:10:14 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: Will88

I have a feeling the Obama temper tantrum is going to be fr more pleasurable than a Romney presidency.


13 posted on 05/03/2013 11:17:46 AM PDT by struggle
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To: Will88

But hey, we’d better give them amnesty as fast as we can, right?


14 posted on 05/03/2013 11:17:58 AM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: Will88

Not to mention votes they will lose if they support amnesty. It is a lose/lose situation for our country and the Republican politicians. So why are some supporting it? Who knows, but might want to follow the money.


15 posted on 05/03/2013 11:21:35 AM PDT by Tammy8 (~Secure the border and deport all illegals- do it now! ~ Support our Troops!~)
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To: ScottinVA

“Likewise, the white vote is so large that an improvement of 4 points — going from 60 percent to 64 percent of those whites who did vote — would have won the race for Romney.”

So, how is the White House not in the cards? 4% of the white vote is an insurmountable goal?


16 posted on 05/03/2013 11:36:43 AM PDT by Boogieman
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To: muawiyah

“We lost the Charlie Crist faction!”

I think we were always going to lose Key West.


17 posted on 05/03/2013 11:39:25 AM PDT by Boogieman
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
Romney actually won a higher percentage of the white vote in 2012 than Ronald Reagan won in 1980, meaning that if demographics had not changed dramatically since 1980,

From the Washington Examiner

. In 1980, Reagan won white voters 56 percent to 36 percent, with third party candidate John Anderson taking 8 percent of the vote. He ended up beating Carter by 10 points and winning 44 states.

Romney wins white vote by same margin as Reagan did in 1980 landslide

Actually, John Anderson, a Republican who lost to Reagan in the primaries of 1980, won 8% of the vote in the general election. Most of his vote would likely have gone to Reagan so those percentage comparisons with Romney don't work from 1980 to 2012.

The Republicans are losing elections because many conservatives, mostly whites, are staying home because they're tired of their priorities being ignored.

18 posted on 05/03/2013 11:42:52 AM PDT by Will88
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To: Tammy8
Not to mention votes they will lose if they support amnesty.

Yep, and I think they've already lost many votes by W's pushing amnesty so hard in 2006 and 2007. And now some GOP characters are back for more, or less.

"Family values don't stop at the Rio Grande."

Maybe Marco should revive that classic and use it to push the Gang of 8 amnesty.

19 posted on 05/03/2013 11:46:50 AM PDT by Will88
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To: muawiyah
There are factions within the black coalition partner of the Democrat party. Some of them are ripe for disaffiliation!

I think so, too. And if Republicans could peel away just 10 - 15% of the black vote that would be huge because their votes are in many more states than Latinos whose votes are concentrated in a smaller number of mostly blue states.

20 posted on 05/03/2013 11:51:48 AM PDT by Will88
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To: Boogieman
There were all sorts of widow wimmen up and down the coast who liked Charlie and they jumped out when he went Democrat.

We'd lost far worse if we hadn't seen the voter registration files purged of all the phony voters, but for someone reason they let Charlie go and forgot about his followers!

21 posted on 05/03/2013 11:52:02 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Will88
Definitely. We've messed up several times in Virginia ~ mostly due to the Webb vote ~ those guys don't vote unless it's for someone with a pro-Confederate leaning.

The Doug Wilder action could very well have been busted out of the Democrat party every time Webb ran but we had too many Republican GOP-e types imagining that we can't offend any Republican by calling on the black voters to join us!

22 posted on 05/03/2013 11:54:44 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah

Yep, I was thinking about Virginia, and also more black votes could shore up NC, Ohio, Indiana, Florida, and a few other states that have moved back-and-forth during the past few presidential elections.


23 posted on 05/03/2013 11:57:16 AM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88

I’ve wondered if Norquist and his crowd think if they keep going left they will peel off a good percentage of the liberal white vote as they become disenchanted with Obama. They MUST know they’ll never get the socialist hispanic vote.

My favorite Norquist quote:“I started out as a right-winger, and when I retire I want to be a squishy middle-of-the-roader,” he jokes, chortling at the thought.


24 posted on 05/03/2013 11:57:45 AM PDT by AuntB (Illegal immigration is simply more "share the wealth" socialism and a CRIME not a race!)
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To: Will88
Gant's faction ~ within the larger body of black voters in NC ~ could have as easily been absorbed by the Republicans as by the Democrats. That group included all the black small entrepreneurs.

They probably thought ObamaKKKare was going to lit medical care for employees of their backs, but by now they should be completely re-educated!

Someone might make a try.

25 posted on 05/03/2013 12:00:51 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Will88

2014 and 2016: Go White, go Right, or go home.


26 posted on 05/03/2013 12:03:02 PM PDT by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise.)
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To: Boogieman
,i>So, how is the White House not in the cards? 4% of the white vote is an insurmountable goal?

Because.. half of that extra four percent white vote will go to the dems.

27 posted on 05/03/2013 12:05:08 PM PDT by ScottinVA ( Liberal is to patriotism as Kermit Gosnell is to neonatal care.)
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To: Will88

You could make that argument....that whites are staying home. But the bottom line is this: Whites are a shrinking part of the overall population....including the voting population. This especially true here in CA where white are now less than 40% which has had the effect of turning CA into a solid blue state. Not even Ronald Reagan could win in CA with current demographics in this state. And what is happening in CA is happening across the country. And Republicans are being pushed out of all of the metropolitan and urban areas. Here in CA we (Republicans) no longer win in San Diego, the Inland Empire, Fresno, San Jose, Stockton. We are close to losing Orange County, we are now losing in Ventura and Santa Barbara. We get absolutely annhilated in the SF Bay area and LA. But this jusn’t in CA where we are now losing big in urban areas.

Take a look at Texas. Sure it voted GOP in the last election, and probably will for the next several election cycles at least. But there are some warning signs: Whites are now just under 50% of the population in TX. Wiit unti whites are below 40% in Texas, you will see that state turn purple then red. In the last election, Obama carried Harris County (Houston) and Dallas County-—the state’s two biggest counties——GWB and RR easily carried both these counties back in the day. The GOP vote in Texas as in CA is being pushed out of the big metro areas and into the hinterlands. Here in CA nearly all of our (few remaining) GOP elected legislators (congressmen, assemblymen, state senators) com from remote and rural corners of the state as the Party has been effectively pushed out of all of the coastal areas and big metro areas. I see the same thing happening in Texas and elsewhere. I am not in favor of compromising our conservative principles. I am adamantly opposed to illegal immigration and have witnessed first hand how it has destroyed my once great state. I am concerned about the GOP’s weakness in most of our nation’s urban areas and I do believe the US is going the way of Europe. And I wish we could reverse these disturbing trends. Not even a pro-business articulate candidate promising progrowth tax cuts and decent private sector jobs and energy independence can win any more. It is all about the raza and all about who can promise to give away the free stuff at the expense of others. It is all about reparations baby——here in obamanation.


28 posted on 05/03/2013 12:06:57 PM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

I meant to say Texas will turn blue.


29 posted on 05/03/2013 12:09:55 PM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: AuntB
I’ve wondered if Norquist and his crowd think if they keep going left they will peel off a good percentage of the liberal white vote as they become disenchanted with Obama.

I don't know. I can't see any real libs voting Republican under any circumstance.

I've said that the swing vote which put Obama in office was the white guilt vote. By that I mean those white voters who are independents, or moderates, or whatever we call those who still might move back-and-forth from one presidential election to the next - those voters voted for Obama out of white guilt. It just felt so good to vote for a black guy.

I think those voters might come to their senses and vote Republican next time. And I still think many conservatives have stayed home the past two elections.

But I think Norquist and his ilk have just bought into a line of thinking that they have to pander and compete with the Dims for all sorts of group votes, and that that strategy will mostly lose more and more conservative voters.

30 posted on 05/03/2013 12:12:23 PM PDT by Will88
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

About 1/3 of the Hispanics in the US are here illegally, but those illegals appear in or census counts and in all the demographic analyses and projections. And that is why they are about 14% of the population and only about 7% of the voters.

That’s why amnesty or not is so critical. It would bring a net of several million new Dim voters.

But you live in California and tend to think the rest of the nation is just a few years behind. Actually the Latino population is still very small in most states and they are not the swing voters who determine all elections.

And some of the most reliably Dim states are 85% plus white. One wonders if they will ever give up their leftest world view: Wisconsin, Minnesota, most of New England and others.


31 posted on 05/03/2013 12:19:57 PM PDT by Will88
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To: ScottinVA

I’m not talking about increasing the number of white people by 4%, I’m talking about convincing 4% more of the existing ones to get out to the polls and vote for us. Is that not possible? Have we just given up on selling our message to the public?


32 posted on 05/03/2013 12:20:20 PM PDT by Boogieman
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To: Will88

Hispanics have dramatically increased their numbers in a lot of states including TX, NM, FL, AZ, CO, NV, and others-—they aren’t as concentrated in CA as they used to be. In fact as CA’s economy has worsened in recent years many have left the state.


33 posted on 05/03/2013 12:27:26 PM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

And 1/3 of them are illegal.


34 posted on 05/03/2013 12:29:30 PM PDT by Will88
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

We’re seeing the same dynamic here in Virginia. Since 1964, Virginia was a reliable pro-Republican state at the national level, governors notwithstanding. Then, immigrants started rolling in the northern part of the state back in the 1990s. You can travel parts of Falls Church and be convinced you’re not even in America anymore.

Additionally, property developments and suburban sprawl up there attracted much of the government worker base from the DC area, Maryland, and as far away as Pennsylvania. The big warning signs we saw came in 2004, when Bush trailed throughout most of election night until he finally pulled ahead when Richmond County and Hampton Roads tabulated their vote totals. The first big bombshell came in 2006, when George Allen was upended by Jim Webb in his first try for reelection. While, we know about the impact from the “macaca” incident, the fact was a single word could sway the relatively small number of voters needed to tip a vitally important election.
The 2009 (gubernatorial) and 2010 (Congressional) elections gave some hope that a red-state turnaround was in the offing, but the results of 2012 put that notion to rest. GOPers still do somewhat well Hampton Roads, but the numbers are narrowing, and barring miracles, it’s gotten nearly impossible to overcome the dems’ totals in Fairfax County, the beltway region, Norfolk and Newport News. This was clearly evidenced by the state’s 13 EVs going to Obama.

Like the states you mentioned, Virginia is looking particularly troubling. The 2014 elections are going to draw in the supporters of that pathetic sock puppet Mark Warner, so the pro-GOP tilt may not be pronounced at all.


35 posted on 05/03/2013 12:30:49 PM PDT by ScottinVA ( Liberal is to patriotism as Kermit Gosnell is to neonatal care.)
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To: ScottinVA

Yes, I know a lot what you are saying about VA. My grandparents (RIP) used to live there in northern VA and I am very familiar with your state. It is quite true, VA no longer even seems like a southern state anymore. You are lucky though to have a pro-business state government. Some say your governor has now become a RINO-—but compared to what I’m stuck with in CA he looks VERY good. Remember I got Gov. Moonbeam and I’m also stuck with Boxer, Feinstein, Pelousy and Maxine. Yes, VA has turned purple, some might even say blue after voting for Obama twice. I am keeping a close eye on your gubernatorial election this yers-—Love Cuccinnelli ( I probably mispelled his name). I could care less what happens in NJ this year.


36 posted on 05/03/2013 12:42:12 PM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: Boogieman
I’m talking about convincing 4% more of the existing ones to get out to the polls and vote for us.

I hear ya, but that involves pulling them back from their perceived comfortable climes of liberalworld. Large percentages of Americans have become slothful and dependent on government handouts, and will vote for whomever keeps the gravy train rolling. The numbers of hispanics are growing rapidly as well -- these are people who think and act in a collective sense, not individual, so -- like the blacks -- they tend to support who their leaders instruct them. Hate to be a bucket of cold water here, but the demographic changes are not in our favor.

37 posted on 05/03/2013 12:54:01 PM PDT by ScottinVA ( Liberal is to patriotism as Kermit Gosnell is to neonatal care.)
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To: Will88
The Republicans are losing elections because many conservatives, mostly whites, are staying home because they're tired of their priorities being ignored.

Supporting white priorities will expose the GOPe to withering criticism from the MSM that they don't know how to rebut without sounding "insensitive."

So they literally have no idea what to do, now.

38 posted on 05/03/2013 1:07:53 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves (CTRL-GALT-DELETE)
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To: Mr. Jeeves

If something doesn’t break the hold the Karl Rove types now have on the GOP national party, then they have little hope of winning the presidency again in the foreseeable future.

To get more conservatives back into the active fold of the party, about all they have to do is stop pandering to groups and: be pro-life, pro-traditional marriage, be fiscally conservative, don’t award illegal behavior with amnesty, and generally uphold the conservative values the party upheld in the past. And they don’t have to be strident and over-the-top in doing it.

And stop insulting and excluding Tea Party types and Palin supporters from the party functions such as the Romney convention.

Those steps might lose a few RINO votes, but those would be in mostly deep blue states.


39 posted on 05/03/2013 1:23:38 PM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88

Then we are screwed forever.


40 posted on 05/03/2013 1:36:29 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Will88

Time to self deport. Where? I don’t know. Certainly not here.


41 posted on 05/03/2013 1:38:35 PM PDT by riri (Plannedopolis-look it up. It's how the elites plan for US to live.)
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To: ScottinVA

“Hate to be a bucket of cold water here, but the demographic changes are not in our favor.”

Screw the demographics. We used to go out there with a message and the attitude that we could win, if we could just communicate our message to the people, because our message was right.

Now people just want to throw up their hands and say “it’s the demographics!”. Well, the demographics shouldn’t matter if you have the right message. Vote fraud shouldn’t matter if you have the right message. Welfare leeches shouldn’t matter if you have the right message. We need to get back to the fundamentals.


42 posted on 05/03/2013 2:55:19 PM PDT by Boogieman
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To: Boogieman; ScottinVA
“Hate to be a bucket of cold water here, but the demographic changes are not in our favor.”

Screw the demographics.

I wish we could, but the demographic problems are not what you think they are.

Last May, the Pew Hispanic Center, in a study based on U.S. and Mexican statistics, reported that net migration from Mexico to this country had fallen to zero from 2005 to 2010.

In a nutshell:

What’s way up among working class whites are out of wedlock births and males dropping out of the workforce.

I do see some hope.

According to a recent study by Harvard University's Institute of Politics, voters aged 18 29 are not clamoring for more gun control, even after the tragedies in Colorado and at Sandy Hook elementary school.

43 posted on 05/04/2013 11:11:05 AM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: Jonty30

The GOPe always take the conservative whitey vote for granted. They think we have no alternative but to vote Republican. They never seem to realize that another choice is to just stay home and not vote...


44 posted on 05/05/2013 12:06:59 AM PDT by Cowboy Bob (Democrats: Robbing Peter to buy Paul's vote.)
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To: Will88

“..one more illustration of how the Republicans in pursuit of the Hispanic vote are wasting their while losing many white votes from voters who are offended and sick of GOPe pandering to groups.”

It reminds me of how Republicans focused on the Independents! Well, Romney got the Independent vote this time, but STILL LOST!

Time for the Republicans to be concerned about energizing the BASE!


45 posted on 05/05/2013 12:10:03 AM PDT by Sun (Pray that God sends us good leaders. Please say a prayer now.)
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To: neverdem

Demographics will continue to go against whitey as long as whitey continues to feed the “democrats.”

These groups have multiple children, or come to this country illegally, because whitey subsidizes their lifestyle. What 12 kids with 12 different fathers? Sure, no problem. Whitey will give you money - mo’ kids, mo’ money.

What happens when there is an economic collapse and whitey can no longer pay for all these democratic voters? Well, aside from riots, there will be more of a balancing out of demographics...


46 posted on 05/05/2013 12:12:08 AM PDT by Cowboy Bob (Democrats: Robbing Peter to buy Paul's vote.)
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To: Will88; wardaddy

Tell me Freepers: Which segment of the white vote are we not getting but that are not? We are not getting secular whites, white single women, and white single moms. What, pray tell, do we do to get these folks, none of whom seem to like conservatism? I see no evidence of a “hidden conservative vote” anywhere. Hence, why I am despondent when I look at the numbers.


47 posted on 05/05/2013 7:12:10 AM PDT by Clemenza ("History, I believe, furnishes no example of a priest-ridden people maintaining a free civil governm)
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To: Will88

Anderson’s voters were socially liberal suburbanites, many of whom now vote Dem. Even in looking solely at white America, this is a vastly different country than the one in 1980. If you were 30 in 1980, you are now 63.


48 posted on 05/05/2013 7:15:22 AM PDT by Clemenza ("History, I believe, furnishes no example of a priest-ridden people maintaining a free civil governm)
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To: Boogieman

Screw the demographics. We used to go out there with a message and the attitude that we could win, if we could just communicate our message to the people, because our message was right.

Now people just want to throw up their hands and say “it’s the demographics!”. Well, the demographics shouldn’t matter if you have the right message. Vote fraud shouldn’t matter if you have the right message. Welfare leeches shouldn’t matter if you have the right message. We need to get back to the fundamentals

You could not be more RIGHT if you tried.

Bravo!



49 posted on 05/05/2013 2:33:04 PM PDT by rdb3
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To: Will88

I remember too that the foolish Bob Dole wouldn’t let Pat Buchanan speak in San Diego in 1996; couldn’t have helped Dole in the least. Then E. Dole took the Helms seat and squandered it away.


50 posted on 05/05/2013 8:21:20 PM PDT by Theodore R. ("Hey, the American people must all be crazy out there!")
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