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The Dinkins Effect in the Presidential Race
Commentary ^ | 07.31.2012 | John Steele Gordon

Posted on 08/01/2012 2:23:25 AM PDT by neverdem

Andrew Malcolm at Investors Business Daily has an interesting column on whether those who are telling pollsters they intend to vote for the president really are going to do so. The vast majority of them surely will, of course. But politics, like baseball, is a game of inches. If only two percent of those saying they will vote for Obama go into the voting booth and vote for Romney instead, that’s a four-percent shift, turning a comfortable 52-48 win into a 48-52 loss. If they simply stay home, that turns 52-48 into 50-50.

There are numerous signs the Obama campaign is very, very worried. His fundraising has not been the money machine it was in 2008, despite Obama’s burning out the engines of Air Force One going, hat in hand, from one group of fat cats to another. He is running through the money he does raise at a furious pace, mostly running negative ads in toss-up states. He is trying to shore up his base rather than reaching out to the center as he would if his base were secure. That doesn’t bear much resemblance to Ronald Reagan’s “It’s Morning in America” campaign of 1984, does it? There are even those who say Wall Street’s recent climb, despite very gloomy economic news, is due to a growing conviction on the Street that Obama is toast.

And yet pollsters all have the race tight as a tick, as Karl Rove terms it. What’s going on?

I think what I call the Dinkins effect is in operation. David Dinkins was the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York in 1989, having defeated three-term incumbent Ed Koch in the primary. His Republican opponent was Rudy Giuliani. The polls all showed Dinkins well ahead, but he won the race only narrowly...

(Excerpt) Read more at commentarymagazine.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia
KEYWORDS: obama
IIRC, it's also been called the Bradley Effect and the Wilder Effect from the former Mayor Tom Bradley of Los Angeles and former Governor Doug Wilder of Virginia, respectively. It's not a new phenomenon. The rats can thank themselves for constantly playing the race card at every opportunity.
1 posted on 08/01/2012 2:23:34 AM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem

Dinkins, the washroom attendant, was absolutely the worst mayor NY has ever seen.


2 posted on 08/01/2012 2:26:49 AM PDT by Doogle ((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: neverdem

The incompetence effect.


3 posted on 08/01/2012 2:38:43 AM PDT by chuckee
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To: neverdem

The Dinkins race was known for another issue; since his last race they no longer project winners earlier on election day because of the reaction as the day went on that he might win. Voters jammed the polls later in the day, and his loss was attributed to the projections throughout the day motivating his opposition.

He really was a horrible mayor; the city lost a large number of whites (especially Jews) during his tenure. I don’t think the city has ever recovered.


4 posted on 08/01/2012 2:45:24 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: neverdem
I think Obama should worry more about the “Oreo Effect” where in the latest polls over 90% of black folk still say they are going to vote for Obama...

...SAY they are going to vote for Obama—being black on the outside but going for the “white inside” the voting booth.

I work and know many black folks and they ain't all controlled by racial politics I can tell you...only they have to keep their true opinions about Obama—like OJ’s guilt—to themselves or suffer ostracism in the black community. Obama is counting on that over 90% and even a 5% drop could sink him.

5 posted on 08/01/2012 2:52:49 AM PDT by Happy Rain ("Obamacare like all Marxist fails, outlaws redress before creating it's demand.")
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To: Happy Rain
I meant work “with” and know many black folk...

...without the “with” the sentence has an ominous meaning;)

6 posted on 08/01/2012 2:55:19 AM PDT by Happy Rain ("Obamacare like all Marxist fails, outlaws redress before creating it's demand.")
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To: neverdem
... President Obama... He’s arrogant, often mean-spirited, sometimes downright nasty. He avoids taking responsibility for failure but takes all the credit for success. He doesn’t have much of a sense of humor that I can see.

But, but, but the New York Times and Washington Post love him....

7 posted on 08/01/2012 3:01:26 AM PDT by GOPJ (Political correctness is simply George Orwell's Newspeak by a non-threatening name. FR- Bernard Marx)
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To: Happy Rain

Five percent of 12% is 0.6%—less than a sixth of his margin in ‘08.


8 posted on 08/01/2012 3:22:38 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: neverdem

I like Gordon but his grasp of numbers here is shaky. If 2% of voters say they are voting for candidate A but vote for candidate B, it would change a 52-48 victory for Candidate A to a 50-50 tie. It won’t make an eight point swing (52-48 to 48-52).


9 posted on 08/01/2012 3:24:43 AM PDT by Richard from IL
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To: 9YearLurker; Happy Rain

This isn’t ‘08 - Romney has already shown 10X more fight than McCain.


10 posted on 08/01/2012 3:33:17 AM PDT by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
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To: neverdem

There are reasons to hope this year, but the fantasy of a “Bradley Effect” isn`t one of them. Remember in 2008, right here on FR, when so many were confident the factoring in of the “Bradley Effect” would deliver a win for McCain?

The “Bradley Effect” is a mirage.


11 posted on 08/01/2012 3:39:35 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: Richard from IL
I like Gordon but his grasp of numbers here is shaky. If 2% of voters say they are voting for candidate A but vote for candidate B, it would change a 52-48 victory for Candidate A to a 50-50 tie. It won’t make an eight point swing (52-48 to 48-52).

It's even worse than that. His statement was "If only two percent of those saying they will vote for Obama . . ." which means one percent of voters, or a shift from 52-48 to 51-49.

12 posted on 08/01/2012 3:53:51 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: neverdem

NYC was an absolute cesspool under Dinkins.

Giuliani had a hell of a time cleaning up that mess.


13 posted on 08/01/2012 4:10:11 AM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative)
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To: Pollster1; ScottinVA; neverdem

The writer (and the article) could still be right in principle, but still, you have to wonder, how could someone who presumably passed the 5th grade make such a horrendous mistake in arithmetic.


14 posted on 08/01/2012 4:11:36 AM PDT by samtheman (Obama. Mugabe. Chavez. (Obamugavez))
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To: neverdem

Zer0 is America’s David Dinkins.

2 posted on Wednesday, August 24, 2011 11:06:33 PM by Roccus (Obama & Holder LLP, Procurers of fine arms to the most discerning drug lords (202) 456-1414)
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15 posted on 08/01/2012 4:12:33 AM PDT by Roccus
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To: ScottinVA
The “Bradley Effect” is a mirage.

It's a sublte play of the race card to explain why a black candidate lost.

16 posted on 08/01/2012 4:19:35 AM PDT by IamConservative (Well done is better than well said. - Ben Franklin)
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To: ScottinVA
Well, except for the absolute fact that 4 years of Obama has totally cured ‘white guilt’!
17 posted on 08/01/2012 4:22:33 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: neverdem

-—— tight as a tick, as Karl Rove terms it———

but, to wrap up his piece he says the polls in the important swing states are very old and meaningless but since they are the only polls available they were used. In some states there are no polls and they are counted as leaning. The results re thereby skewed in Obama’s favor.

I see his pieces on Fox and am convinced he is sandbagging Obama and will pull the rug from under him eventually


18 posted on 08/01/2012 4:27:11 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
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To: kearnyirish2
He really was a horrible mayor; the city lost a large number of whites (especially Jews) during his tenure. I don’t think the city has ever recovered.

Dinkins behavior during the Crown Heights Riots, where he allowed rioters to rampage through an Orthodox Jewish section of Brooklyn for three days, was reprehensible. He convinced white voters that a black mayor would never protect them from black crime.

New Yorkers realized that having a black democrat mayor for another term would likely irrevocably send NYC into the same decline that Detroit experienced.

19 posted on 08/01/2012 4:34:46 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (If I can't be persuasive, I at least hope to be fun.)
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To: ScottinVA
Yep, right up until election day '08 there was no shortage of Freepers who claimed the polls were full of it and that the Bradley effect (and the "PUMAS" - remember that extinct species?) were going to give the election to the admiral's widdle kid.

Final score: Pollsters 1 - Deluded Freepers, 0.

20 posted on 08/01/2012 4:51:25 AM PDT by Notary Sojac (Ut veniant omnes)
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To: neverdem

I do not think there will be one demographic in 2012 where Obama exceeds his 2008 vote.

Given that, he has very little chance at victory.

The Dinkins/Bradley/Wilder Effect is merely reflective of MSM bias in polling.


21 posted on 08/01/2012 4:53:02 AM PDT by Erik Latranyi (When religions have to beg the gov't for a waiver, we are already under socialism.)
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To: Doogle
Dinkins, the washroom attendant, was absolutely the worst mayor NY has ever seen.

so it's a perfect analogy then.

22 posted on 08/01/2012 5:05:22 AM PDT by the invisib1e hand (Woe to them...)
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To: neverdem

Spot on. I don’t “Dinkins Effect” is an original term either, thought the “effect” is a valid observation.


23 posted on 08/01/2012 5:07:05 AM PDT by Lee'sGhost (Johnny Rico picked the wrong girl!)
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To: Beagle8U
Well, except for the absolute fact that 4 years of Obama has totally cured ‘white guilt’!

silver lining of the century.

24 posted on 08/01/2012 5:08:15 AM PDT by the invisib1e hand (Woe to them...)
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To: FreedomPoster

Who said it was?

I essentially pointed out that a 5% drop in black support would be close to a rounding error in the overall vote.


25 posted on 08/01/2012 5:09:10 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: neverdem

This “effect” does not occur anymore. I was told it would occur in 2008 and it didn’t.

I have little faith in the people of this country to see past class warfare. The citizenry is sick and far too dependent on the government.


26 posted on 08/01/2012 5:22:26 AM PDT by Jake8898
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To: neverdem

Dinkins was so bad, that not only has NYC failed to elect another black man as mayor, we haven’t elected anyone with a (D) next to their name for 20 years!


27 posted on 08/01/2012 5:24:46 AM PDT by Tanniker Smith (Rome didn't fall in a day, either.)
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To: neverdem
If only two percent of those saying they will vote for Obama go into the voting booth and vote for Romney instead, that’s a four-percent shift, turning a comfortable 52-48 win into a 48-52 loss. If they simply stay home, that turns 52-48 into 50-50.

Likewise...

If only two percent of those saying they will vote for Romney go into the voting booth and vote for Obama instead, that’s a four-percent shift, turning a comfortable 52-48 win into a 48-52 loss. If they simply stay home, that turns 52-48 into 50-50.

One MUST remember that there are VAST amounts of Obama voters, who will NOT vote for him again, that are NOT being 'reported' by the MSM.

28 posted on 08/01/2012 6:20:33 AM PDT by Elsie
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To: Happy Rain
...without the “with” the sentence has an ominous meaning;)

Whatchu talkin' bout, Massa? :)

29 posted on 08/01/2012 7:45:37 AM PDT by Max in Utah (A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within.)
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To: neverdem

It’s also the “I don’t want to say anything bad about the Black guy (Colored guy for the super seniors” syndrome.


30 posted on 08/01/2012 9:26:25 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: PapaBear3625

“New Yorkers realized that having a black democrat mayor for another term would likely irrevocably send NYC into the same decline that Detroit experienced.”

I remember the riots well; they killed the fellow from Australia in a wild pack attack. The city is still declining, but they’re really pricing the multi-generational dependents out now. The gentrification, accompanied by the Hispanic invasion, would indicate that Dinkins may be the last black mayor of NYC.


31 posted on 08/01/2012 6:59:04 PM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: sf4dubya

Dinkins paved the way for Giuliani. No pundit predicted a white Republican as mayor.


32 posted on 08/02/2012 1:52:50 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Erik Latranyi

That only matters state by state. He could lose the gross national vote, but win the EC.


33 posted on 08/02/2012 1:59:03 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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