[Pollster1]

I like Gordon but his grasp of numbers here is shaky. If 2% of voters say they are voting for candidate A but vote for candidate B, it would change a 52-48 victory for Candidate A to a 50-50 tie. It won’t make an eight point swing (52-48 to 48-52).

It's even worse than that. His statement was "If only two percent of those saying they will vote for Obama . . ." which means one percent of voters, or a shift from 52-48 to 51-49.

[samtheman]

The writer (and the article) could still be right in principle, but still, you have to wonder, how could someone who presumably passed the 5th grade make such a horrendous mistake in arithmetic.