Skip to comments.Why Obama Will Lose in a Landslide
Posted on 05/30/2012 7:16:29 AM PDT by Kaslin
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I dont believe its possible to turnaround America.
But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.
Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60s. This is not good news for Obama.
*Youth voters. Obamas biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.
*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That wont happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to give someone different a chance. I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that hed support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didnt listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
*Suburban moms. The issue isnt contraception its having a job to pay for contraception. Obamas economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their childrens future. This is not good news for Obama.
*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying I didnt vote for Obama 4 years ago. But hes done such a fantastic job, I cant wait to vote for him today. Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obamas radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.
But Ill give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.
Actually Wilson and LBJ were far far worse. However if we give this guy a 2nd term he may yet surpass them.
No matter who wins, there will be a democrat in the white house in 2013.
The biggest mistake anyone can make is to sit home and not vote because someone makes a prediction. The only way to make sure the prediction comes true is to vote
The money quote.
More than one if you prefer...
“Either is death for America”
True, but one is quick, sudden and painful. And irreversible.
The other is slow and tortuous, but might be put into remission, or even reveresed and cured, eventually.
Neither is a pleasant choice, but there is no other. One of these two will be President. But I’d like to see Sarah Palin as President, or Thomas Sowell, or Walter Williams. Or, if he wasn’t so valuable on the Supreme court, the magnificent Clarence Thomas.
He left out the Stalin factor.
It's not who votes that counts. It's who counts the votes.
A socialist foreign interest is counting our votes. Not good for the USA.
Don’t forget Gunny Sgt. R. Lee Ermey or Lt. Col. Allen West for possible POTUS and/or VPOTUS picks!
“*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I’m a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to ‘give someone different a chance.’
In my circle of small businessmen friends, I was one of the few who didn’t say, “give someone different a chance.” I was very disappointed, four years ago, when a dear friend of mine, fairly conservative owner of multiple small businesses over the years, came out angrily against McCain and indicated his intention to vote for the anti-Christ.
Here we are four years later and he can’t wait to vote against the Kenyan.
Similarly with devout Catholics. Four years ago, many of my church-going Catholic friends were willing to “give someone different a chance.” This year, most of the folks I know are angry at the Kenyan anti-Christ and can’t wait to go vote against him.
It will be a difficult election for the scum currently occupying the White House. Let’s hope it’s as difficult as this writer makes out.
Thinking about it now could you imagine if West and Ermey were POTUS and VeP? Think of the press conferences they would have. If one of the press got out of line it would be great to see West use style and grace to cut them down to size. Then have an immediate follow up by Ermey to shred them with that D.I. mouth and persona of his in front of everyone and then kick their buttocks out of the conference. Or give them the option to drop and give him 50 pushups! LOL!
It would be an absolute riot. The ratings would go through the freaking roof!!!
Or have see them revoke all of the press credentials of the Leftist journos and only allow conservative, freedom and liberty-loving reporters in!
The good news is that this is a wash and all the other voter blocs mentioned will be moving away from Obama this time around as the author says. I'm on board with the landslide but will try not to be over-confident.
Except 4 years later, they know there are no jerbs. 46% unemployed in their chosen field two years after graduation. And what is Bobo's opponent talking about every time his mug is onscreen? Jerbs.
We'll be here to dry their tears -- with sand -- on Nov. 7.
He didn’t mention what conservative voters will do. I wonder why? /s
It was June of 1992 when I went to a Perot rally on Boston Common. It was pandemonium. About 20,000 people turned out on a day's notice.
Like you, I wonder if Perot had an "oh crap" moment when he realized he was actually on the way to winning the election outright. That's probably not what Perot had in mind at all so he turned on the "crazy uncle" bit in order to throw the election to Clinton (which is what he evidently wanted to do all along). Notice how he got back in the race that summer after dropping out when it seemed that Bush might be catching up. However this time, he threw Admiral Stockdale (poor guy) into the mix just to ensure he wouldn't actually win. All he wanted was to pull enough votes away from Bush to guarantee Clinton the victory.
I know it all sounds like some crazy conspiracy but evidently the Bushes did something in Texas to rub Perot the wrong way and this was his way of exacting a measure of revenge. It's probably nothing more than that.
One thing for sure, Perot is not the crazy nut people make him out to be. I just think he had absolutely no intention of actually being elected president.
Good article. But lacking any insight that he couldn’t have just picked up by reading FR for a couple of days.
Minor correction needed:
“This time around we have a flaming liberal against an avowed Marxist”/closet Muzzie.
Hope you don’t mind - your concept is spot on, just a bit deficient. ;-)
Muslims will be the only demographic group that will go and vote for their fellow Muzzie in greater numbers. With this group, he has delivered.