Posted on 05/30/2012 7:16:29 AM PDT by Kaslin
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s possible to turnaround America.
But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.
Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.
*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.
*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.
*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.
But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.
It was quite easy to have contempt for him even before becoming familiar.
Fake is so very easy to spot.
And there ain’t nuttin’ about this loon that isn’t fake.
I loathe, dispise, hate, spit upon, sneer at, and f*rt in the general direction of this loathsome cretin.
Unfortunately, the only candidate who could screw this up is Romney.
And, as we have seen time and again, when two liberals run against each other, the majority end up voting for the liberal who will give them more of other people's money. Only when a conservative runs can the entire election question be re-framed.
This analysis would be spot-on ... IF there were no media cheerleaders distorting reality.
Example: an Associated Press (TASS) story the other day headlined, “Americans Obsess Over Gas Prices.”
The 100%+ rise in gas prices since he took office is Obama’s achilles’ heel and there is not much he can do to change that. Therefore, AP writers endeavor to minimize the importance of same, suggesting that voters’ concern over gas prices is a sign of immaturity, if not mental disorder.
I cringe every time someone says or prints such balderdash 6 months before the election; even El Rushbo a.k.a Maha Rushie. I much prefer to hear about it on Wednesday AFTER the polls have closed.
“Unfortunately, the only candidate who could screw this up is Romney.”
Which is why the Republicans are running him.
When his reign began, even I wanted to give him a chance.
But then he said, "I won, stick it."
Anyone who wants to be re-elected has to try to attract those who did not vote for him, because he certainly won't hold all those who did vote for him.
Man, there is going to be a LOT of freepers very, very upset if that happens....(namely, the “Obama is a lock for re-election” crowd).
Obama will win it based on a historical turnout of dead voters.
Romney haters.
Many folks forget that in 1980 there was a third party candidate on the ballot.John Anderson split the pinko vote in half making it easier for the Tipper to win.We have no such situation this time and I think Obozo will beat Mittins without breaking a sweat.
Oh,,, And I thought it was because Øbama likes men more than his wife does.
F U B O
“Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008?”
Leeches and ticks.
Everyone can vote their conscience. I know I went against better instincts and voted for McCain to keep Obama out, but Obama infested the office anyway, and the toll on this country has been irreparable. Thankfully, his fangs were chopped a little in 2010.
THE most important thing for me when voting in November will be to vote CONSERVATIVE on all down-ticket races. To me, this would mean voting against Saxby or Chambliss here but keeping my representative, Tom Graves.
In the end, I’ll take it in the rear and vote for Romeny because I know Obama will destroy us as fast as he can. If Romney is elected and has a more conservative Congress/Senate, then he can be bitch-slapped into reality, hopefully.
quick, what were Root’s calls on the last ten Super Bowls?
I didn’t need familiarity. I just read his first book, back when Hillary was still the presumptive candidate and Obama was still coming on, and I had plenty of contempt.
Correct and that is why that arrogant, lazy, lying pos occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave will get his eviction notice on November 6
John Anderson was a Republican who ran Independent after losing to Reagan in the primaries.
He only got 6% of the vote, and a majority of his support came from people who wouldn't vote for Carter, but liked a more liberal alternative than Reagan.
He didn't move a single electoral vote from one-side of the ledger to the other.
With the exception of when one lib points out the printing press is broke. Which is why Perot had to gaslight the country on LKL with the ninjas-on-my-lawn story, otherwise he was going to win. In fact it was exactly 20 years ago when he had the plurality polling lead (39%).
Not unironically, Perot endorsed Mittens in '08...
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