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Why Obama Will Lose in a Landslide
Townhall.com ^ | May 30, 2012 | Wayne Allyn Root

Posted on 05/30/2012 7:16:29 AM PDT by Kaslin

Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.

Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s possible to turnaround America.

But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.

*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.

*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.

But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bho2012; landslide; predictions; romney2012
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1 posted on 05/30/2012 7:16:33 AM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

“But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.”

I utterly despise Obotulism. He is a malignant cancer on this nation that must be excised.


2 posted on 05/30/2012 7:19:54 AM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: Kaslin
"I simply use common sense to call them as I see them."

Well, that certainly saves on time and money.

3 posted on 05/30/2012 7:20:48 AM PDT by Paladin2
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To: Kaslin

Op-Ed pieces and polls in May are not predictive of what will occur in November.

Let’s hope the author is correct.


4 posted on 05/30/2012 7:22:02 AM PDT by RexBeach (Mr. Obama Can't Count.)
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To: Kaslin

I cannot stand Obama. That said, I expect he will not lose to ORomney.


5 posted on 05/30/2012 7:23:36 AM PDT by Ingtar ("As the light begins to fade in the city on the hill")
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To: DarthVader

You’re too kind.


6 posted on 05/30/2012 7:24:27 AM PDT by Mr. Lucky
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To: RexBeach

Wayne Root is an outstanding odds-maker and his analysis has some interesting numbers to back up his conclusions.


7 posted on 05/30/2012 7:25:26 AM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: RexBeach
"Let’s hope the author is correct."

I hope and pray that the author is correct, but I fear that he is not.

8 posted on 05/30/2012 7:25:56 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: Kaslin

B-b-but this astrologer says that the stars are in The Manchurian’s favor!

Astrologers say celestial charts favor Obama over Romney
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/astrologers-celestial-charts-favor-obama-over-romney-215912482.html

It really doesn’t matter because both candidates follow the same Progessive plan. Yes, they have their own unique way of doing it but a vote for either is death to America. That’s why I’m writing in Sarah’s name for POTUS this November!


9 posted on 05/30/2012 7:26:11 AM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: Kaslin

’ It’s Reagan-Carter all over again.’

I wished it was. In that contest it was a conservative against a flaming liberal. In 2012 there are 2 flaming liberals running against each other.


10 posted on 05/30/2012 7:28:36 AM PDT by 556x45
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To: Kaslin

Clinton was right. It’s the economy, stupid


11 posted on 05/30/2012 7:29:24 AM PDT by AppyPappy (If you really want to annoy someone, point out something obvious that they are trying hard to ignore)
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To: Kaslin

PING


12 posted on 05/30/2012 7:29:44 AM PDT by Batman11 (Obama's poll numbers are so low the Kenyans are claiming he was born in the USA!)
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To: 556x45

I beg to differ. This time around we have a flaming liberal against an avowed Marxist.


13 posted on 05/30/2012 7:33:09 AM PDT by ZirconEncrustedTweezers (To criticize the government is to speak blasphemy against a liberal's god.)
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To: Kaslin

Bookmarked.


14 posted on 05/30/2012 7:36:23 AM PDT by Inyo-Mono (My greatest fear is that when I'm gone my wife will sell my guns for what I told her I paid for them)
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To: Kaslin
What he says sounds logical. With voter fraud and control of the voting machines, all bets are off. It's a big we'll see. . .
15 posted on 05/30/2012 7:42:00 AM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: DarthVader

He is absolutely the worst president in American history...a monumental disaster.


16 posted on 05/30/2012 7:42:20 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: Kaslin

I can back upmhis assessment about thhe Jewish vote. Most of my Jewisg friends and family voted for Obama last time. This time? NOT A ONE.


17 posted on 05/30/2012 7:42:51 AM PDT by Hildy ("When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser." - SocratesHill not text while dri)
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To: Ingtar

He will steal the election and it will be found out. Just like it was planned. Then the fracturing really begins.


18 posted on 05/30/2012 7:43:52 AM PDT by Hoosier-Daddy ( "It does no good to be a super power if you have to worry what the neighbors think." BuffaloJack)
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To: Kaslin

Obama’s legacy...It will be taked about for centuries...How he almost ruined America.


19 posted on 05/30/2012 7:44:09 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: Kaslin

I agree, the important point to remember is that it is continuing every day to move against him. By election day a tidal wave is going to sweep these wing nuts out.


20 posted on 05/30/2012 7:47:18 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: Kaslin

It was quite easy to have contempt for him even before becoming familiar.

Fake is so very easy to spot.

And there ain’t nuttin’ about this loon that isn’t fake.

I loathe, dispise, hate, spit upon, sneer at, and f*rt in the general direction of this loathsome cretin.


21 posted on 05/30/2012 7:48:34 AM PDT by Da Coyote
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To: Kaslin

Unfortunately, the only candidate who could screw this up is Romney.


22 posted on 05/30/2012 7:49:11 AM PDT by Colonel_Flagg (Conservatism is not a matter of convenience.)
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To: 556x45
In 2012 there are 2 flaming liberals running against each other.

And, as we have seen time and again, when two liberals run against each other, the majority end up voting for the liberal who will give them more of other people's money. Only when a conservative runs can the entire election question be re-framed.

23 posted on 05/30/2012 7:53:24 AM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Support hate crime laws: Because some victims are more equal than others.)
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To: Kaslin

This analysis would be spot-on ... IF there were no media cheerleaders distorting reality.

Example: an Associated Press (TASS) story the other day headlined, “Americans Obsess Over Gas Prices.”

The 100%+ rise in gas prices since he took office is Obama’s achilles’ heel and there is not much he can do to change that. Therefore, AP writers endeavor to minimize the importance of same, suggesting that voters’ concern over gas prices is a sign of immaturity, if not mental disorder.


24 posted on 05/30/2012 7:53:30 AM PDT by Walrus (Barack Obama --- fomenting race wars since 2008)
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To: Kaslin
Nothing kills a good voter turnout like a guaranteed, money in the bank, landslide prediction.

I cringe every time someone says or prints such balderdash 6 months before the election; even El Rushbo a.k.a Maha Rushie. I much prefer to hear about it on Wednesday AFTER the polls have closed.

25 posted on 05/30/2012 7:53:53 AM PDT by cashless (Unlike Obama and his supporters, I'd rather be a TEA BAGGER than a TEA BAGGEE.)
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To: Colonel_Flagg

“Unfortunately, the only candidate who could screw this up is Romney.”

Which is why the Republicans are running him.


26 posted on 05/30/2012 7:57:52 AM PDT by Soul of the South
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To: Kaslin
This is the big point.

When his reign began, even I wanted to give him a chance.

But then he said, "I won, stick it."

Anyone who wants to be re-elected has to try to attract those who did not vote for him, because he certainly won't hold all those who did vote for him.

27 posted on 05/30/2012 7:58:33 AM PDT by HIDEK6
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To: Kaslin
I've been saying this for a long time; White House internals are dreadful. That's why the Pres has been in full blown campaign mode 24/7.

The veil has lifted for most of those who conned themselves into believing that electing a man simply because of his race (and the historic nature of that act) and they are beginning to realize just what a complete and incompetent putz it is they have elected.

Romney (could have been any of our candidates) by low double digits--11-13%. Republicans are going to sweep in with another historic victory.
28 posted on 05/30/2012 7:58:47 AM PDT by Sudetenland (Anybody but Obama!!!!)
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To: Kaslin

Man, there is going to be a LOT of freepers very, very upset if that happens....(namely, the “Obama is a lock for re-election” crowd).


29 posted on 05/30/2012 7:59:32 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Kaslin

Obama will win it based on a historical turnout of dead voters.


30 posted on 05/30/2012 8:01:07 AM PDT by chopperman
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To: Kaslin
Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008?

Romney haters.

31 posted on 05/30/2012 8:05:45 AM PDT by dead (I've got my eye out for Mullah Omar.)
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To: Kaslin

Many folks forget that in 1980 there was a third party candidate on the ballot.John Anderson split the pinko vote in half making it easier for the Tipper to win.We have no such situation this time and I think Obozo will beat Mittins without breaking a sweat.


32 posted on 05/30/2012 8:08:08 AM PDT by Paddyboy
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To: Kaslin

Oh,,, And I thought it was because Øbama likes men more than his wife does.
F U B O


33 posted on 05/30/2012 8:13:11 AM PDT by ▀udda▀udd
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To: Kaslin

“Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008?”

Leeches and ticks.


34 posted on 05/30/2012 8:16:37 AM PDT by listenhillary (Courts, law enforcement, roads and national defense should be the extent of government)
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To: Sudetenland

Everyone can vote their conscience. I know I went against better instincts and voted for McCain to keep Obama out, but Obama infested the office anyway, and the toll on this country has been irreparable. Thankfully, his fangs were chopped a little in 2010.

THE most important thing for me when voting in November will be to vote CONSERVATIVE on all down-ticket races. To me, this would mean voting against Saxby or Chambliss here but keeping my representative, Tom Graves.

In the end, I’ll take it in the rear and vote for Romeny because I know Obama will destroy us as fast as he can. If Romney is elected and has a more conservative Congress/Senate, then he can be bitch-slapped into reality, hopefully.


35 posted on 05/30/2012 8:16:51 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Kaslin

quick, what were Root’s calls on the last ten Super Bowls?


36 posted on 05/30/2012 8:20:28 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: DarthVader

I didn’t need familiarity. I just read his first book, back when Hillary was still the presumptive candidate and Obama was still coming on, and I had plenty of contempt.


37 posted on 05/30/2012 8:21:35 AM PDT by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
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To: AppyPappy

Correct and that is why that arrogant, lazy, lying pos occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave will get his eviction notice on November 6


38 posted on 05/30/2012 8:22:10 AM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: Paddyboy
Many folks forget that in 1980 there was a third party candidate on the ballot.John Anderson split the pinko vote in half making it easier for the Tipper to win.

John Anderson was a Republican who ran Independent after losing to Reagan in the primaries.

He only got 6% of the vote, and a majority of his support came from people who wouldn't vote for Carter, but liked a more liberal alternative than Reagan.

He didn't move a single electoral vote from one-side of the ledger to the other.

39 posted on 05/30/2012 8:23:07 AM PDT by dead (I've got my eye out for Mullah Omar.)
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To: Thane_Banquo
"And, as we have seen time and again, when two liberals run against each other, the majority end up voting for the liberal who will give them more of other people's money."

With the exception of when one lib points out the printing press is broke. Which is why Perot had to gaslight the country on LKL with the ninjas-on-my-lawn story, otherwise he was going to win. In fact it was exactly 20 years ago when he had the plurality polling lead (39%).

Not unironically, Perot endorsed Mittens in '08...

40 posted on 05/30/2012 8:24:59 AM PDT by StAnDeliver
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To: ConservativeDude

Yeah


41 posted on 05/30/2012 8:25:15 AM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: AngelesCrestHighway

Actually Wilson and LBJ were far far worse. However if we give this guy a 2nd term he may yet surpass them.


42 posted on 05/30/2012 8:27:21 AM PDT by desertfreedom765
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To: Kaslin

No matter who wins, there will be a democrat in the white house in 2013.


43 posted on 05/30/2012 8:27:30 AM PDT by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: cashless

The biggest mistake anyone can make is to sit home and not vote because someone makes a prediction. The only way to make sure the prediction comes true is to vote


44 posted on 05/30/2012 8:42:19 AM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: dead
Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008?

Homos.

45 posted on 05/30/2012 8:43:41 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: Kaslin
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.”

The money quote.

46 posted on 05/30/2012 8:44:31 AM PDT by VRW Conspirator (Article 58)
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To: Kaslin
WHY OBAMA WILL LOSE IN A LANDSLIDE...

*******************

Pick one...
Just one...
Any one...

More than one if you prefer...

************

BAMMIE_ENUFF1

47 posted on 05/30/2012 8:47:44 AM PDT by Wings-n-Wind (The main things are the plain things!)
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To: Jack Hydrazine

“Either is death for America”

True, but one is quick, sudden and painful. And irreversible.

The other is slow and tortuous, but might be put into remission, or even reveresed and cured, eventually.

Neither is a pleasant choice, but there is no other. One of these two will be President. But I’d like to see Sarah Palin as President, or Thomas Sowell, or Walter Williams. Or, if he wasn’t so valuable on the Supreme court, the magnificent Clarence Thomas.


48 posted on 05/30/2012 8:49:27 AM PDT by chesley (Eat what you want, and die like a man. Never trust anyone who hasn't been punched in the face)
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To: DarthVader
>"his analysis has some interesting numbers to back up his conclusions."

He left out the Stalin factor.

It's not who votes that counts. It's who counts the votes.

A socialist foreign interest is counting our votes. Not good for the USA.

49 posted on 05/30/2012 8:50:17 AM PDT by rawcatslyentist ("Behold, I am against you, O arrogant one," Jeremiah 50:31)
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To: chesley

Don’t forget Gunny Sgt. R. Lee Ermey or Lt. Col. Allen West for possible POTUS and/or VPOTUS picks!


50 posted on 05/30/2012 8:53:00 AM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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