Posted on 10/27/2010 7:05:02 AM PDT by Kaslin
Edited on 10/27/2010 7:24:24 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
WASHINGTON -- At some point in an election cycle, out of exhaustion and desperation, commentators turn to actual experts. So I recently posed several questions to Charlie Cook of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Question: Is this a wave election? Yes, but the wave seems to have crested. "This is approximately where the 1994 election was -- something in the range of eight Senate seats, 52 House seats," says Cook. "A month ago, there was a chance it could have gone from gigantic to titanic. But the possibility of Republican House gains in the 60s or 70s has declined in the last month."
(Excerpt) Read more at townhall.com ...
Bret Hume was whining the same thing last night as was Krauthammer; both saying 50 in the House. We’re aiming for 100. Dick Morris has a totally different take on this election and he’s been in all these states talking with the campaigns.
The arrogant commentators, Elitist mouth pieces like Krauthammer think they’re so smart. Ugh! I turn them off as they make me sick.
But, why? What has changed in the last month? Things are better now?
Charlie spoke too soon and I suspect would give a different interview today. He doesn’t necessarily have any better information than the rest of us, mostly the publically available polls, and often he does not have all of the internal data. But, he knows who does the polls and who’s good and who’s not. He also knows how to interpret the data and what the historical details are for any given district. He also knows who is running a good campaign and who’s bus is about to go off the cliff.
He has already upped the R gain from what he discusses in this interview. He will make his final calls this week. Pay attention.
Some of the tea party candidates have cost us some seats we could have won unfortunately.
But, I think it’s important.
That would be comforting if he was ever right...his track record for predictions stink.
Voter turnout.
Every conservative everywhere needs to encourage every conservative they know to vote.
Don’t take it for granted. Drive them personally to the polls if that is what it takes.
Vote early to prevent anything on election day that night keep you from the polls. Encourage others to do the same.
Here is Charlie’s “expert” prediction on the ‘94 election, from the Christian Science Monitor:
“A more neutral observer, Charles Cook of the Cook Political Report, estimates that Republicans will pick up between 15 and 20 seats”
Cook is full of crap. Period.
Current Intrade contract odds
The Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2010 Congressional Elections Last Price: 90.0
SENATE:
The Democrats to control the Senate after 2010 Congressional Elections Last Price: 54.5
Republicans to hold 52 or more seats after 2010 mid-term elections Last Price: 12.9
Republicans to hold 50 or more seats after 2010 mid-term elections Last Price: 31.0
Republicans to hold 48 or more seats after 2010 mid-term elections Last Price: 80.0
HOUSE:
Republicans to gain 70 or more seats in 2010 mid-term elections Last Price: 25.0
Republicans to gain 60 or more seats in 2010 mid-term elections Last Price: 45.0
Republicans to gain 55 or more seats in 2010 mid-term elections Last Price: 69.9
Despite a few candidates causing us problems, I do like the tea party overall.
But, it’s largely because of them we may not win the Senate but get the House, an oddity that hasn’t happened since 1930.
Regardless, I am glad they are there.
He claims that O’Donnell’s personality is spilling over to other senate races. Ok, so why doesn’t the Al Greene candidacy in South Carolina spill over? Alan Grayson? many others.
The only problem is that Dick Morris is always wrong.
Tsunamis come in multiple waves. The first wave came and went. And now, in the major GOP trending we are seeing this week around the country, the second, far more devastating tsunami is arriving.
Perhaps Morris hasn’t taken the voter fraud into account that others in the MSM already know about.
The official GOP thinks of itself as a Center Right/Center Left Coalition. They make their money as brokers, not leaders/
You mean “Delaware” don’t you ~ well you bad boy. Doncha’ know that if we’d been running Castle the Democrats would still capture Delaware. So why not roll the dice and try someone else. That’s where Christine came in.
I have to admit, the commie ‘RATS did an outstanding job sweeping ObamaCare, Crap’n Tax, TARP and the stimulus under the rug. Mudslinging worked for them. As it always does. This whole election cycle was about mud and “gotcha”. We the People are the big losers for letting the ‘RATS get away with it.
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