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The Crested Midterm Wave
Townhall.com ^ | October 27, 2010 | Michael Gerson

Posted on 10/27/2010 7:05:02 AM PDT by Kaslin

Edited on 10/27/2010 7:24:24 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]

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To: Kaslin
"If you gave Democratic leaders truth serum and asked, 'Do you hate business?' they would say 'no' and pass the test. But it would be hard to convince a lot of businesspeople. Democrats were tone-deaf to how their actions would be perceived."

Not "tone-deaf". Ignorant!

Fact is, most Democrats (and many politicians of both parties) have no idea how business works. They've never run a business, they've never worked in a business. They have no experience at actually creating economic growth...and the jobs that come with it.

Follow that with the way Democrats address any "problem" in a given industry. If there is a "problem" in the oil industry, for example, Republicans would rely on expert advice from people in the oil industry. The Democrats would instead rely upon the expert advice of academics and lawyers.

41 posted on 10/27/2010 8:23:43 AM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA: Ignorance on Parade)
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To: rwfromkansas

Some of the tea party candidates have cost us some seats we could have won unfortunately.

You use the term WE loosly. I’m not a Castle kind of republican and don’t consider that kind of candidate in the WE catagory when I’m included in the WE. You can embrace rinos if you want to. I voted for my last one in 08 and I’ll never vote for another one. If you don’t believe me, put Mitt on the ballot and see what happens.


42 posted on 10/27/2010 8:27:33 AM PDT by Robbin (If Sarah isnÂ’t welcome, IÂ’m not welcome, itÂ’s just that simpleÂ…)
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To: NeoCaveman
Speaking of Bull Clinton Obama had him out campaigning in SAFE districts in Chicago!

Think about it ~ a Democrat district in Chicago is a Democrat district in Chicago. THEY NEVER go Republican, so you don't have to waste resources campaigning ~ you just decide who's going to win the primary ('cause it's his turn usually) and that's how it's done. For Chicago people local elections are OVER by June.

I think for some of those districts that's the first time an outsider like Clinton ever campaigned there.

Imagine how startled they were to find out the FIX WAS NO LONGER IN.

Makes me wonder just how bad the Democrat internal polls are ~ gotta' be an incredible disaster.

43 posted on 10/27/2010 8:34:13 AM PDT by muawiyah ("GIT OUT THE WAY" The Republicans are coming)
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To: Lazlo in PA

Something is not adding up and that makes sense because midterms usually leave the pollsters looking stupid.

....ahhhhh, don’t forget reddoperdiaper Axelrod told us it will be a LATE night, ie. MASSIVE VOTE FRAUD and close races will all go to the ones that COUNT the vote, not the actual votes... see Al Franken, Fraudqueen Gregoire, John Thune first time around etc. Election stealing is easier when you have the courts and the Sec of State in your pocket which is why Repubs will LOSE every close race. And the Dem pollsters know where the fraudsters are working and their polls will give them COVER in the press!

ymmv


44 posted on 10/27/2010 8:35:44 AM PDT by ElectionInspector (Molon Labe...)
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To: library user
But, why? What has changed in the last month? Things are better now?

It's a matter of campaign tactics.

Cook discusses it in the interview: "They gave up defending their record. Now they are going after the personal and career shortcomings of their opponents, some of whom are not very well vetted."

Hitting your opponent on qualifications -- or lack thereof -- is effective, especially if he's also a political novice who has no experience in staying on-message, and dealing with what the opponent has to say.

The Dems are good at that game, especially when it comes finding ways to attack that play into the media's biases.

The R's (especially Tea Party types) have been hurting themselves, too, by continuing to make their broad bumper-sticker statements, and sometimes tending toward hyperbole, while Democrats have been picking at the details. It's subtle, but to an undecided voter that sort of thing sows doubt about the Republicans' ability to deal with actual situations. Bennett in Colorado has been effective in that regard, as has Coons in Delaware.

So, yeah ... nothing has changed on the issues; it's just that the Dems have had some measure of success in calling into question the Republicans' chances of dealing with them.

45 posted on 10/27/2010 8:41:15 AM PDT by r9etb
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To: rwfromkansas
But, it’s largely because of them we may not win the Senate but get the House, an oddity that hasn’t happened since 1930.

Interesting that you should mention 1930. Because after 1930 came 1932 ...

46 posted on 10/27/2010 8:44:04 AM PDT by bIlluminati (Don't just hope for change, work for change in 2010.)
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To: CA_soon_gone
Long time incumbents weren’t thrown out in the primaries. The mood in 94 seemed meek compared to today. Am I hoping for too much?

1994 was the Gingrich/Limbaugh revolution. The House Banking scandal caused many House members, including my own Chalmers Wylie (RINO, Ohio) to retire, else they would have been thrown out. Plenty of anger.

Even more anger when they caved on media pressure. Our guys have to have the courage of their conviction, and add convictions to the record of the DemonRat machine.

Anger at Perot for splitting the vote in 1992. Still, you are correct. Nothing like the anger of having friends and family screwed by no jobs; the anger of desperation; anger of knowing that the Chicago Way has already shown us the graveyard of their failed policies.

Defund the Left!

47 posted on 10/27/2010 8:55:25 AM PDT by bIlluminati (Don't just hope for change, work for change in 2010.)
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To: Lazlo in PA

RATs are counting on the dead, goons in prison, and their old standby voter fraud. They’re not counting on the eyes and ears of We The People who are dedicated to ensuring our freedom and our future.

Consider this election a war against tyranny.


48 posted on 10/27/2010 8:56:57 AM PDT by ExTexasRedhead (YEAH, I ALREADY VOTED TO CLEAN THE SEWER!!!)
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To: ExTexasRedhead

Most of the trends I see, including the early voting (GOTV is huge this year), are pointing to a mega wave. 10 Senate seats, 70 House seats. 10-70, a nice ring to it for some reason, I wonder why. Oh yeah, SB1070.


49 posted on 10/27/2010 8:59:03 AM PDT by cookcounty (My Final prediction: 10 Senate seats, 70 House seats.)
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To: muawiyah; rwfromkansas
You mean “Delaware” don’t you ~ well you bad boy. Doncha’ know that if we’d been running Castle the Democrats would still capture Delaware. So why not roll the dice and try someone else. That’s where Christine came in.

Delaware is one, Colorado is another.

In Delaware, Mike Castle (the only US Rep for that state) had been winning state-wide elections for over 30 years, despite the disparity between R and D voters, and would almost certainly have steam-rolled Coons in the general. His loss in the primary is an interesting example of the fact that primaries are not the same as the general election.

Castle's replacement, Ms. O'Donnell, excited the GOP primary base, which is not the same as exciting a general electorate that is predominantly Democrat. Her background and experience are not exactly confidence-inspiring, which explains her lagging numbers among the independents whose votes she needs to win.

In Colorado, Mike Bennet is an appointed incumbent, and he's as dull a party hack as you're likely to find. He was eminently beatable by the right candidate, but he's in a dead heat with Ken Buck. Buck is a smart enough guy, and has real-world experience. But he tends to whine and shoots from the lip, which diverts attention from his winning issues. Buck also tends toward hyperbole and raised voice in debates, which doesn't sound good in comparison to Bennet's more measured approach.

50 posted on 10/27/2010 9:00:10 AM PDT by r9etb
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To: dirtboy
"Tsunamis come in multiple waves. The first wave came and went. And now, in the major GOP trending we are seeing this week around the country, the second, far more devastating tsunami is arriving."

Everything in the last 48 hours is pushing us up.

51 posted on 10/27/2010 9:00:29 AM PDT by cookcounty (My Final prediction: 10 Senate seats, 70 House seats.)
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To: Robbin

I know we needed to get rid of him, but she has ended up being a lightning rod.


52 posted on 10/27/2010 9:00:29 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: r9etb
In Colorado, turnout will make the difference (early voting, unlike 2008, is very strongly GOP). Tancredo has at least a 50-50 chance, my concern with him is that he's something like the 6th or 7th name down on the ballot, that could cost a point or two.
53 posted on 10/27/2010 9:03:44 AM PDT by cookcounty (My Final prediction: 10 Senate seats, 70 House seats.)
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To: r9etb

Hey, Castle votes with the Democrats ~ letting him win a Senate seat is ridiculous. There’s no difference between Castle and Coon.


54 posted on 10/27/2010 9:04:10 AM PDT by muawiyah ("GIT OUT THE WAY" The Republicans are coming)
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To: Former Proud Canadian

Excellent point you have there. Talk about a non serious candidate.


55 posted on 10/27/2010 9:06:13 AM PDT by dforest
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Think we may see between 60-70 just based on pure statistics.

Anything 60 or over is a true huge wave.


56 posted on 10/27/2010 9:06:53 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: r9etb

Yeah, Buck has squandered his lead.

I think he will still pull it off, but it will be very close.

Most of the tea partiers are good, but he has been an issue, as well as O in Delaware. Angle somewhat, but not too bad comparatively.


57 posted on 10/27/2010 9:12:47 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Kaslin

I say we assume and broadcast “about 50” as our official expectation. That way, if only get that, we’ll appear right and not look like we’ve performed “worse than expected.” And if we get more, it will look “better than expected” and far more meaningful.

Frame public expectations to work in your favor, regardless of what happens. Privately, believe whatever makes you feel good.


58 posted on 10/27/2010 9:18:59 AM PDT by sourcery (Don't call them "liberals" or "progressives." The honest label is extreme anti-Constitutionalists!)
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To: muawiyah
Hey, Castle votes with the Democrats ~ letting him win a Senate seat is ridiculous. There’s no difference between Castle and Coon.

Vote-wise, yes.... but votes aside, Castle would have meant another R in the Senate, and that could end up being the difference between majority or minority status.

Considering the stakes in the larger game of stopping Obama, and considering the power over committees and agendas that majority status confers ... that's probably a lot more important than Castle's weakness on the issues.

But let's grant Castle's primary loss was justified by his stance on the issues. It still does not make Christine O'Donnell a good candidate for the general election. Cook's comments about attacking the background and qualifications of candidates is certainly true for her, and it's been effective.

59 posted on 10/27/2010 9:58:17 AM PDT by r9etb
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To: r9etb

I’d rather do the right thing, for the right reasons...and let the cards fall where they may.


60 posted on 10/27/2010 10:00:48 AM PDT by Osage Orange (MOLON LABE)
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