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ZOGBY's DELUSIONS
Zogby ^

Posted on 11/04/2004 12:11:46 PM PST by golch1979

Polling firm Zogby International accurately predicted President Bush's Ohio victory, as well as the defeat of Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota, and accurately forecast the outcome of every Senate race in our final battleground poll, conducted October 29 through November 1, 2004. The margin of error was +/- 4.1 percentage points.

PRESIDENTIAL VOTE -2004

STATE BUSH KERRY

CO-Actual 53% 46% CO-Zogby 49% 47%

FL-Actual 52% 47% FL-Zogby 48% 48%

IA-Actual 50% 49% IA-Zogby 45% 50%

MI-Actual 48% 51% MI-Zogby 46% 52%

MN-Actual 48% 51% MN-Zogby 45% 51%

NV-Actual 51% 48% NV-Zogby 50% 45%

NM-Actual 50% 49% NM-Zogby 48% 51%

OH-Actual 51% 49% OH-Zogby 49% 43%

PA-Actual 49% 51% PA-Zogby 46% 50%

WI-Actual 49% 50% WI-Zogby 45% 51%

** Zogby FINAL Oct. 29-Nov. 1, MOE +/- 4.1

SENATE RACES

DASCHLE THUNE SD-Actual 49% 51% SD-Zogby 46% 48% Oct 25-26 MOE +/- 3.5

SALAZAR COORS CO-Actual 51% 47% CO-Zogby 52% 44% Oct 29-Nov 1 MOE +/- 4.1

MARTINEZ CASTOR FL-Actual 50% 48% FL-Zogby 48% 43% Oct 29-Nov 1 MOE +/- 4.1

GRASSLEY SMALL IA-Actual 70% 28% IA-Zogby 69% 20% Oct 29-Nov 1 MOE +/- 4.1

REID ZISER NV-Actual 61% 35% NV-Zogby 57% 34% Oct 29-Nov 1 MOE +/- 4.1

VOINOVICH FINGERHUT OH-Actual 64% 36% OH-Zogby 56% 32% Oct 29-Nov 1 MOE +/- 4.1

SPECTER HOEFFEL PA-Actual 53% 42% PA-Zogby 53% 32% Oct 29-Nov 1 MOE +/- 4.1

FEINGOLD MICHELS WI-Actual 56% 44% WI-Zogby 58% 38% Oct 29-Nov 1 MOE +/- 4.1


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004electionbias; ashheapofhistory; bushvictory; cya; electiondaybias; electionnightbias; exposedasafool; final2004polls; finalzogbypolls; lyingliar; mediabias; poll; pollfigures; specialsauce; statistics; zogby; zogbybias; zogbyism; zogbypoll; zogbysauce
He claims that he called it right. Uhm...Didn't he predict Kerry to win more than 300 votes? In what universe is he? His defense of his predictions shows that he knows he is f-----.
1 posted on 11/04/2004 12:11:46 PM PST by golch1979
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To: golch1979

I think he said Kerry would have 311 electoral votes.


2 posted on 11/04/2004 12:12:48 PM PST by GeorgeBerryman
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To: golch1979

Zogby... the Jason Blair of polling.


3 posted on 11/04/2004 12:13:13 PM PST by Blue Screen of Death (/i)
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To: golch1979

Zogby has lost all credibility except for democrats who want to be filled with bogus information.


4 posted on 11/04/2004 12:13:24 PM PST by Moconservative
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To: colorado tanker

ping


5 posted on 11/04/2004 12:14:02 PM PST by HockeyPop
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To: Moconservative
Terrorist sympathizer, future rug merchant
6 posted on 11/04/2004 12:14:23 PM PST by DAC21
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To: Timesink; martin_fierro; reformed_democrat; Loyalist; =Intervention=; PianoMan; GOPJ; ...

Media Schadenfreude and Media Shenanigans PING


7 posted on 11/04/2004 12:15:12 PM PST by weegee (Bob Hope loved a Republican Ohio...)
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To: golch1979

He is spinning like a top. If he was so accurate, why did he call Keryr getting 311 EVs at 5:30pm Tuesday?

See this thread also:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1268922/posts
Statement from John Zogby on 2004 Presidential Election Results (CYA spin) ^


8 posted on 11/04/2004 12:15:17 PM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: golch1979

That's ok. You'll still have some Freepers harping how Zogby is the most accurate pollster around despite the evidence.


9 posted on 11/04/2004 12:16:25 PM PST by LdSentinal
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To: GeorgeBerryman

At 5 pm on election day he had Florida and Ohio going to Kerry. I mean who does he think he's fooling. falling into the right result once gave him a sense of his own importance that's been completely refuted. The guy's junk.


10 posted on 11/04/2004 12:16:31 PM PST by golch1979
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To: finnman69

He has the accuracy of Dan Rather.


11 posted on 11/04/2004 12:16:50 PM PST by Patrick1
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To: GeorgeBerryman

I have this day emailed Mr Zogby and informed him that his credibility as a pollster resides on the trash heap of history.


12 posted on 11/04/2004 12:17:20 PM PST by JoeV1 (The Democrats-The unlawful and corrupt leading the uneducated and blind)
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To: golch1979

LOL, this guy called every key state wrong. So he was "within the margin of error" - I could have thrown a dart at a list of numbers and been just as accurate.


13 posted on 11/04/2004 12:17:53 PM PST by KellyAdmirer
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To: golch1979

At 5.00 pm Zogby was on his way to the Kerry celebration.


14 posted on 11/04/2004 12:17:53 PM PST by mmyers
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To: LdSentinal
how Zogby is the most accurate pollster around

Is that like being "the most honest lawyer around"?

15 posted on 11/04/2004 12:18:04 PM PST by weegee (Bob Hope loved a Republican Ohio...)
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To: JoeV1

I was just thinking of that line when I was wondering about his fate. Sweet.


16 posted on 11/04/2004 12:18:10 PM PST by golch1979
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To: golch1979

Anyone who cant hit within +/- 4 (thats an 8 POINT SPREAD folks) should not be charging money for polling


17 posted on 11/04/2004 12:18:36 PM PST by Mr. K
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To: weegee
Baghdad Zog, aka John Zogby, says, "I didn't predict a massive win by Kerry in my last poll! I was correct and the conservatives are lying about my expert polling data! Trust me, I'm a great pollster!"

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

18 posted on 11/04/2004 12:19:22 PM PST by Grampa Dave (FNC/ABCNNBCBS & the MSM fishwraps are the Rathering Fraudcasters of America!)
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To: weegee

There are lies, damnable lies, statistics, and now zogby polls.


19 posted on 11/04/2004 12:19:42 PM PST by Mr. K
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To: JoeV1

We need to use his name as the left has used Senator McCarthy's.

Zogbyism will forever more be the term for a leftist media snowjob designed to sway public opinion.

example: "The Zogbyism in this campaign almost gave John Kerry an unearned victory."


20 posted on 11/04/2004 12:20:12 PM PST by weegee (Bob Hope loved a Republican Ohio...)
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To: golch1979
Hey, Zogby...

21 posted on 11/04/2004 12:21:08 PM PST by evets (God bless president George W. Bush)
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To: Blue Screen of Death
Zogby... the Jason Blair of polling.

Excellent. But where Jason Blair just gave leftist media bosses what they wanted to hear, Zogby has a more specific purpose:

Zogby exists to make Democrat election theft look plausible.

22 posted on 11/04/2004 12:21:30 PM PST by eno_ (Freedom Lite, it's almost worth defending.)
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To: golch1979

Zogby is really delusional.

If you look at his prez state numbers, he consitently understated the President's support by about 3-5% ... I have not run the numbers, and may not get the chance to, but he really blew the states.


23 posted on 11/04/2004 12:22:25 PM PST by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: Grampa Dave

That photo actually looks real. If the shoe fits...


24 posted on 11/04/2004 12:22:53 PM PST by golch1979
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To: HockeyPop
Thanks for the ping!

I guess I must have been having hallucinations from drinking too much special sauce when I saw Zogman post his 5:00 pm prediction of a Kerry win!

Zogs is toast. He stole the exit poll data and repackaged them in his 5:00 pm "call" so's he could claim to be most accurate in 2004. But it blew up on him bigger than a Pali suicide belt.

25 posted on 11/04/2004 12:24:28 PM PST by colorado tanker ("medals, ribbons, we threw away the symbols of what our country gave us and I'm proud of that")
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To: finnman69
"He is spinning like a top. If he was so accurate, why did he call Keryr getting 311 EVs at 5:30pm Tuesday? "

I don't see many calls for his predicting services after this "projection". HA

26 posted on 11/04/2004 12:25:12 PM PST by lstanle
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To: golch1979

ZOGBY is a muzzy you know.. biding time waiting for 72 virgins.. all muslims are timebombs..


27 posted on 11/04/2004 12:26:03 PM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to included some fully orbed hyperbole....)
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To: golch1979

Zog needs another job after one realizes what a liar and front man for the rats he has been while posing as a pollster.

So he would be perfect to be America's Baghdad Zog to defend the Islamofascists, their American political party the Rats, and other enemies of America.


28 posted on 11/04/2004 12:27:22 PM PST by Grampa Dave (FNC/ABCNNBCBS & the MSM fishwraps are the Rathering Fraudcasters of America!)
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To: golch1979

Zogby is trying to have his cake and eat it too. His published numbers were as accurate as he could make them, but starting the Saturday before the election, he started giving interviews interpreting the data and saying that he was detecting a shift toward Kerry and that Kerry would probably win big, etc. But he never changed the individual numbers, because he thinks that his credibility is based on those numbers alone.

He cannot deny, however, that he stood up on Election Day and predicted a big Kerry win in the Electoral College.

My view is that Zogby has been building up political capital in the United States for decades by calling them as well as he could. He acted almost like a sleeper agent, toiling away to position himself to have the greatest possible effect at the critical moment. On Tuesday, he cashed in all of his chips in an attempt to influence this one election. This one was the all-or-nothing battle that he had been working toward for years.

But in the end, it wasn't enough. Now he is trying to pick up the pieces. We must not let him do so. We must not forget what Zogby tried to do here.


29 posted on 11/04/2004 12:27:34 PM PST by gridlock (FOUR MORE YEARS!!!! FOUR MORE YEARS!!!!)
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To: Moconservative
Zogby has lost all credibility except for democrats who want to be filled with bogus information.

Zogby ... as one 'Rat to another ... here's your kool-aid!

30 posted on 11/04/2004 12:28:04 PM PST by BluH2o
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To: golch1979
What makes it even worse is that Zog claimed he caught a late trend to Kerry that was not reflected in his polls. So, his real prediction was that Kerry would do even better than his already inflated numbers suggested.

This is nothing more than spin by Zogby, and it is a feeble attempt at that.

31 posted on 11/04/2004 12:28:38 PM PST by comebacknewt
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To: Moconservative

"Zogby has lost all credibility except for democrats who want to be filled with bogus information."

There will always be a market for that!



32 posted on 11/04/2004 12:31:20 PM PST by Let's Roll (For a guy who shirks his own job, Kerry sure is eager to tell others how to do theirs ...)
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To: golch1979
Zogby did what he was paid to do.......

We will remember!

Sadly enough I saw Pat Robertson's program on the day before the election and he was about to introduce Zogby.

I immediately changed the channel.

Two delusional people who seemingly deserve each other.

33 posted on 11/04/2004 12:31:47 PM PST by OldFriend (PRAY FOR POWERS EQUAL TO THE TASKS)
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To: colorado tanker

"But it blew up on him bigger than a Pali suicide belt."

That's a good one. You should send it to Dan Rather to explain why their projections were wrong on election night.


34 posted on 11/04/2004 12:49:14 PM PST by weegee (Bob Hope loved a Republican Ohio...)
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To: weegee

Thanks. Is Dan still refusing to call Ohio?


35 posted on 11/04/2004 12:51:41 PM PST by colorado tanker ("medals, ribbons, we threw away the symbols of what our country gave us and I'm proud of that")
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To: Grampa Dave

I only have time for a short post, but here's what I've seen... (Z's Prez state polls):

He understated the Prez's strength by an average of 2.9% in these states. EVERY state, he understated it.

He understated the DIFFERENCE in the strength of the Prez vs sKerry support by 2.5%.


His special sauce ended up skewing his figures by about 3% in favor of the Demodog, on average, it appears ... and I have no more time to look further now. Whether intentional or not, it was a systematic error because there was not even a hint of scatter in these underestimates of the president's strength.

----


36 posted on 11/04/2004 12:52:47 PM PST by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: golch1979
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
37 posted on 11/04/2004 12:53:30 PM PST by anonymous_user (The Surgeon General never said anything about smokin' Liberals.)
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To: AFPhys

Thanks! Just another reason why Zog should find another job and forget about his polling gig.


38 posted on 11/04/2004 12:54:26 PM PST by Grampa Dave (FNC/ABCNNBCBS & the MSM fishwraps are the Rathering Fraudcasters of America!)
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To: colorado tanker

The spin I am STILL hearing from the left was that Kerry opted not to "put the country through a repeat of the 2000 election". They think he COULD HAVE won if he had gone to the courts. They are delusional. There is no way that he would have gotten the necessary votes.

At least they now agree with us that he is a p***y.


39 posted on 11/04/2004 12:55:25 PM PST by weegee (Zogbyism will forever more be the term for a leftist media snowjob designed to sway public opinion.)
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To: golch1979
He frantically adjusted his numbers to fit the exit polling on election day. Now we know the exit polling was bogus and Zogby is a fraud.
40 posted on 11/04/2004 12:58:05 PM PST by blogblogginaway
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To: AFPhys

The overstated polls probably got some 'undecideds' to vote sKerry so that they could vote "for the winner" (also deferring judgment to "whoever" must be the better candidate).

The overstated polls had another effect as well though (especially when the media's Zogbyism became apparent night after night). It drove conservative voters to the polls in record numbers. People stood up and said HELL NO, WE WANT BUSH!


41 posted on 11/04/2004 12:58:30 PM PST by weegee (Zogbyism will forever more be the term for a leftist media snowjob designed to sway public opinion.)
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zogby went out of his way to give kerry a lead everywhere he could.
even when he says he accurately predicted the daschle/thune race, he's giving a 'nuanced' answer. he predicted daschle would win, but his prediction was within the =/- 4% of the margin of error of his poll, so since the final thune win was still within 4% of his expected daschle win, he's claiming he was accurate in his predictions. this is another examplpe of how facts and statistics can be 'massaged' to say whatever you want to say....90% of the people sitting home could have had a 100% prediction rate with a +/- 4% spread simply by looking at an average of the polls.
zogby will be looking for the best spin possible so he can say he was 'accurate' in the polling for this election....what a joke
42 posted on 11/04/2004 1:08:43 PM PST by jer2911tx (john kerry doesn't like rice, or as he calls it 'weapons of ass destruction')
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To: weegee

I like it, I like it!


43 posted on 11/04/2004 1:09:47 PM PST by JoeV1 (The Democrats-The unlawful and corrupt leading the uneducated and blind)
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To: golch1979

I think I have the answer for all the bogus polls and exit polls. The media was setting us up for the RAT lawsuits that never happened. They were going to go with the eletion 2000 game plan that even if Bush won they were going to tarnish the win and hope that the goons in the RAT party rioted making Bush look bad again.


44 posted on 11/04/2004 1:15:15 PM PST by John Lenin
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To: HockeyPop

bump for later


45 posted on 11/04/2004 1:44:35 PM PST by woodb01 (Take out the 'dnC'BS "news" trash... SEE ---> http://www.noDNC.com)
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To: Grampa Dave
Trust me, I'm a great pollster!"

We have all learned that as soon as one says "Trust Me" we know we can not. It is not different with John-boy!

46 posted on 11/04/2004 3:03:48 PM PST by rundy
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To: rundy

Hopefully Dick Morris and some others will force an investigation of the Exit Poll Scam to electronically coup the election for Kerry.

It appears that Zog the Great set the stage for this bs the night before the election with his last so called poll.

FNC/ABCNNBCBS were part of this attempted electronical coup. They bought it or pushed it gleefully to discourage us from voting. It didn't work.

The vile odor of this can probably be traced back to the DNC and Komrade Kerry's Kamp.


47 posted on 11/04/2004 3:14:09 PM PST by Grampa Dave (FNC/ABCNNBCBS & the MSM fishwraps are the Rathering Fraudcasters of America!)
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To: Grampa Dave

They forgot the rule, that when crooks cook the books, they should always keep a LEGIT record so they know just how much it is off.


48 posted on 11/04/2004 3:28:23 PM PST by weegee (Zogbyism will forever more be the term for a leftist media snowjob designed to sway public opinion.)
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To: weegee

Also, the Zog and other liars forget how we save things on the internet.

Zog should ask Blather and c BS about what happens when one tries to Rather America with Free Republic watching.


49 posted on 11/04/2004 3:37:17 PM PST by Grampa Dave (FNC/ABCNNBCBS & the MSM fishwraps are the Rathering Fraudcasters of America!)
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