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By and large the pollsters did an excellent job this year, especially when you consider the significant variables they were grappling with (massive registration increases, historic levels of intensity, cell phones, etc) and also that they were working under intense public scrutiny and scorching partisan attacks from both sides.At the national level the answer to the question is pretty straightforward. Ed Goeas's GW-Battleground Vote Projection and Pew Research got it exactly right. Goeas's final Battleground projection was Bush 51.2, Kerry 47.8, Nader 0.5 and Pew's final allocation was 51-48-1. CBS News/NY Times also nailed the final spread in the race...

Polling firm Zogby International accurately predicted President Bush's Ohio victory, as well as the defeat of Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota, and accurately forecast the outcome of every Senate race in our final battleground poll, conducted October 29 through November 1, 2004. The margin of error was +/- 4.1 percentage points. PRESIDENTIAL VOTE -2004 STATE BUSH KERRY CO-Actual 53% 46% CO-Zogby 49% 47% FL-Actual 52% 47% FL-Zogby 48% 48% IA-Actual 50% 49% IA-Zogby 45% 50% MI-Actual 48% 51% MI-Zogby 46% 52% MN-Actual 48% 51% MN-Zogby 45% 51% NV-Actual 51% 48% NV-Zogby 50% 45% NM-Actual 50% 49% NM-Zogby...

Final Battleground Projection: Bush: 52, Kerry: 48%

Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry Final Projection Bush 50.2% Kerry 48.5% Other 1.3% RasmussenReports.com Tuesday November 02, 2004--On Election Day, the final Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll projection shows President George W. Bush with 50.2% of the vote, Senator John Kerry with 48.5%, and other candidates with 1.3%.

I have included leaners and percentage of "certain voters" in parentheses. Florida Bush 51 (97% certain) Kerry 47 (89%) Michigan Bush 46 (99%) Kerry 50 (89%) Minnesota Bush 48 (94%) Kerry 50 (91%) Ohio Bush 52 (91%) Kerry 46 (90%) Pennsylvania Bush 48 (94%) Kerry 50 (92%) Pray he's right this time.

Nev. +8 Col. +3 PA -1 Iowa -3 Click on the link to see the full report... They are updating through the night...

A breakdown of these polls: (B = Bush, K = Kerry, State Electoral Votes in Parenthesis) Florida (27): B 49%, K 45% Arizona (10) : B 51%, K 43% Colorado (9): B 50%, K 43% Ohio (20): B 48%, K 46% Iowa (7): B 49%, K 45% Michigan (17): K 49%, B 47% Missouri (11): B 49%, K 44% New Hampshire (4): K 47%, B 46% Nevada (5): B 50%, K 44% West Virginia (5): B 51%, K 43% Oregon (7): K 50%, B 44% Pennsylvania (21): K 48%, B 46% Wisconsin (10): K 48%, B 46% Minnesota (17): B...

51.2% TO 47.8% [Larry Kudlow] That’s the call made by Ed Goeas, co-author of the blue-chip, bipartisan Battleground Poll. I spoke to Ed this morning, at 7 a.m. He is using an ultra-conservative, worst-case, 2000-like, partisan sample of 44.3% Democrats and 42.3% Republicans. He tells me Bush has bounced up in the past 48 hours on leadership and Iraq. Also, on the economy -- on keeping America prosperous, Bush has moved up from a 45% to 47% deficit to a 48% to 46% lead. This could be the response to the excellent GDP economic report published Friday and totally ignored...