Bush Hangs on to Slim Leads in State Polls

Mason-Dixon Polling Online ^ | 11/2/04 | Calvarys_Soldier

[Calvarys_Soldier]

A breakdown of these polls:

(B = Bush, K = Kerry, State Electoral Votes in Parenthesis)

Florida (27): B 49%, K 45% Arizona (10) : B 51%, K 43% Colorado (9): B 50%, K 43% Ohio (20): B 48%, K 46% Iowa (7): B 49%, K 45% Michigan (17): K 49%, B 47% Missouri (11): B 49%, K 44% New Hampshire (4): K 47%, B 46% Nevada (5): B 50%, K 44% West Virginia (5): B 51%, K 43% Oregon (7): K 50%, B 44% Pennsylvania (21): K 48%, B 46% Wisconsin (10): K 48%, B 46% Minnesota (17): B 48%, K 47% New Mexico (5): B 49%, K 45%

That totals to 108 EV's for Bush and 59 EV's for Kerry.

[Calvarys_Soldier]

Removing these battleground states, Bush has a total of 191 EV's, Kerry a total of 169 EV's. Thus, my electoral prediction using the Mason-Dixon polling numbers is:

Bush 299, Kerry 228

That's not as close as some would like you to believe. And I will stand on that.

Also, I will note again that Mason-Dixon's margin of error compared to actual vote tallies is .5% over the last two decades. Compare that to 4-5% by Zogby and Gallup.

[Heff]

Good numbers. Praying they hold.

[RetiredArmy]

JUST REMEMBER, THE ONLY NUMBER THAT COUNTS IS 270!! WE NEED 270. MORE IS NICE, BUT 270 CLINCHES IT. 270, REPEAT IT ALL DAY LONG. WE WANT 2-7-0!!!

[over3Owithabrain]

These M/D #'s look good, enough to win rather easily. I think Minnesota will be the upset turnover for W. I spend a couple weeks a year there, and it is definitely trending conservative.

[madison46]

Winning numbers*

[HiJinx]

Arizona (10) : B 51%, K 43%

As an Arizona voter, I'd say these numbers are lopsided in favor of Kerry...I expect him to receive less than 40%.

[Question Liberal Authority]

Welcome to Free Republic!

[NYC Republican]

These are old, polling through 10/30.

[rocklobster11]

THIS DATA IS A COUPLE DAYS OLD.

[Humvee]

Today the polls are meaningless - VOTE BUSH NOW.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

bump

[finnman69]

If the 2004 presidential election were held today, would you vote for:

	FL	AR	CO	OH	IA	MI	MO	NH	NV	WV	OR	PA	WI	MN	NM
Kerry-Edwards	45	43	43	46	44	47	44	47	44	43	50	48	48	47	45
Bush-Cheney	49	51	50	48	49	45	49	46	50	51	44	46	46	48	49
Others	1	N/A	2	1	1	2	1	1	2	N/A	1	N/A	1	1	1
Undecided	5	6	5	5	7	6	6	5	4	6	5	6	5	4	5

[aft_lizard]

A poll released yesterday had Bush winning by 16%, cant remember which one, all I know is that cheesy halloween commercial from the state democratic party probably caused many dims to just forget about voting after seeing that piece of amateur production.

[HiJinx]

The Dims must not think Cochise County is worth wasting their money on...I don't recall seeing anything from them.

[aft_lizard]

I see them alot, but on channels like the food network and stuff. really chesy commercial, thought they were advertising a haunted house party or something

[Calvarys_Soldier]

First and foremost, those two day old polls are actually more reliable than some of the daily updated polls because it is near impossible to come up with a reliable poll over the course of one day.

Compare the sample sizes. Also, to garner a decent sized sample, a one day poll will likely center itself in population centers...aka cities. That means it leaves out significant portions of rural areas, which are more Republican.

Secondly, I believe the aforementioned reasons explain a small trend toward Kerry.