I still maintain, the issues you have outlined are powerful but demeanor at this point is everything.
Posted on 10/03/2016 10:20:48 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
With the 2016 presidential election now just 36 days away, we'll be updating our Fix electoral map every Monday from here on out as things change. The big change this week is that Pennsylvania, long the holy grail for Donald Trump's chances of expanding the playing field and potentially getting 270 electoral votes in his race against Hillary Clinton, is moving back to the toss-up category in our rankings.
Why? Because poll after poll after poll — including one released by Quinnipiac University on Monday — suggest that in a four-way race that includes Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Clinton holds a very narrow lead over Trump. It's a lead more consistent with the other states that we rate toss-ups than the states we rate lean Democratic, which is where we've had Pennsylvania for some time now.
Moving Pennsylvania certainly helps Trump as its 20 electoral votes — if he can win them — give him some wiggle room in his still-narrow path to 270. But the question now is whether Trump's disastrously bad last seven days — beginning with the first presidential debate and ending today with a brutal AP story about his conduct toward women on the set of "The Apprentice" — will erase the gains he has made in Pennsylvania in recent weeks. (That same question goes for Colorado, Ohio and Florida, too.)
But, as of today, Pennsylvania looks like a toss-up. And that's very good news for Trump....
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Yes, and we know what city those votes came from!
I still maintain, the issues you have outlined are powerful but demeanor at this point is everything.
I agree with you that Trump’s ground game will come nowhere near Hillary’s. I also acknowledge that the disdain for the polls expressed here on Freerepublic also happened in 2012. However, one source of hope is that Trump may have energized a lot of folks that usually don’t vote. If so, then the polls would probably not pick them up as likely voters. The flip side of that argument is that the polls may be identifying likely voters on the other side based on their participation in 2008 and 2012, and I think its pretty clear that Hillary will not match Obama’s ability to turn out the Democrats. Election night will be very interesting. Whither the Republican Party if Trump carries Pennsylvania but does not carry the suburbs of Philadelphia?
Hillary has got to diminish her opponent because she has no affirmative case to make and that leaves her vulnerable on the enthusiasm side which she hopes to compensate for with a head start in the polls relying on the perennial Democrat ground game. She hopes to compensate for it in one other way which makes the dynamic very interesting.
Barak Obama had enthusiasm to spare by virtue of his race, he could count on 90 to 95% voting by African-Americans. Hillary is having no luck reaching those numbers so she has done what she has to do, play the race card. Hillary more than any Democrat has to play the race card because, as I said, she has no affirmative case to make. This is why we see Black Lives Matter plowing the ground for some time before the election season.
This dynamic becomes even more interesting because of Trump's brilliant response, "what have you got to lose?" Going right at the heart of the Democrat plantation dependency culture. In taking this line, Trump will get no backlash in any meaningful level from white voters but Hillary might well face backlash from white voters when she plays the race card. The intriguing events occur in places like Charlotte in which Hillary is careful to endorse the mob but runs the risk of backlash.
Enthusiasm might well prove to be hostage to events if we have A Black Swan. Within a matter of hours we will see what wikileaks has to offer, the economy could serve up a shock, terrorists are busy plotting, the world is very unstable and war could break out at any moment.
But as things stand today, we have to watch the polls because if Hillary gets too far ahead enthusiasm will not overcome the gap and the gap itself will actually diminish enthusiasm. Believe me, it will not be some poster on free Republic who diminishes that enthusiasm because any Clinton advantage in the polls will be broadcast far and wide, high and low until every potential voter is aware of it.
It’s the Washington post.. Or in other words Bezos personal
Rag... They are mandated by Bezos to attack and bring down Trump. There is absolutely no onjectivity from them at all Trump could be up 90 points and they would still claim he was flailing.
I have expected Trump to take PA from the offset. Trumpocrats are real and numerous here and throughout the rust belt. Hillary’s support is weak and enthusiasm non existent.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/
Nate Silver made his name in 2008 when he correctly predicted Obama’s win. He also correctly predicted Obama’s win in in 2012. He was way off in 2014. Why? Because the polls were skewed toward the Dems. From the article: “Based on results as reported through early Wednesday morning — I’ll detail our method for calculating this in a moment — the average Senate poll conducted in the final three weeks of this year’s campaign overestimated the Democrat’s performance by 4 percentage points. The average gubernatorial poll was nearly as bad, overestimating the Democrat’s performance by 3.4 points.”
I know a lot of people have a form of PTSD after being so sure that the polls showing Romney losing were skewed in 2012, but blindly accepting that the polls are accurate today is no better than blindly rejecting them in 2012.
Most election polling in recent times shows a Dem bias. Sometimes that bias is slight and sometimes it’s large, but it is usually there. After all, a pollster’s results are no better than his assumptions, and almost all pollsters are currently making assumptions that I believe are false. They are using a 2008/2012 turnout model which assumes that blacks and youth are going to turn out for Hillary in the same numbers they turned out for Obama. They are also assuming that women voters will vote for Hillary in the same kinds of numbers that black voters voted for Obama.
I think both of these assumptions are wrong. There was an article yesterday (I can’t find it or I would post it) that discussed polling that shows the youth vote is not energized for Hillary, and I have seen no indication that the black vote is either. My gut tells me that there will be a “vagina vote,” but it will be much smaller than projected—most women vote pocketbook issues and the security of their families, not by the gender of the candidate.
I’m a Floridian, and Trump will win here, handily. I wasn’t freeping in 2008 or 2012, but I correctly predicted Obama’s wins here, and I’ve correctly predicted all senatorial and gubernatorial races in this state for decades. If you want to know what is really going on in Florida politics, watch Senator Bill Nelson. He’s an idiot, but he’s a politically astute idiot, not to mention a first-rate political whore, and he will always show who’s winning and losing the DNC’s internal polling in Florida. He staunchly supported Hillary in 2008. She won the Florida primary by a mile. He all but humped Obama’s leg in 2012 (Nelson was up for reelection) fundraising and introducing him all over the state, gushing over him, etc. This year he came out strong for Hillary in the primary (she won.) His support since then, however, has been markedly tepid. He’s introduced her a couple of times at rallies, but his remarks to the press have been lukewarm at best, even though he’s officially one of her key people in Florida. He’s even talked about her “high negatives.” On the Senate side, he’s defended Rubio against the Dem challenger, Murphy. Nelson’s actions tell me two things—the DNC’s internal polling has Trump and Rubio winning Florida.
Great news!
Psst: Your boy Cruz lost!
And your sour-grapes mash is a loser’s brew.
Choke on it Nate, you old coot.
Even in the projects, I don't see Hillary signs like I did with O in 2012.
Yes, I've made comments about some women who attacked me, but my opponent destroyed women whom her husband assaulted. In my career I've created jobs, in hers she's destroyed jobs. So if I get angry, it's a righteous anger, because I see that my opponent and her friends in the biased media want to keep the current rigged system in place, where they prosper by selling out, you, the American people. That makes me angry.
As a man of intellectual integrity no doubt you are courageous and will stand up to every other FReeper who will lash out in the event of a loss, God forbid, by Donald Trump looking for villains and scapegoats, people they can blame. They will turn on Donald Trump just as they have turned on Dole, McCain and Romney blaming the candidates they extolled only days before but they will never blame themselves. No, they will never blame themselves for failing to heed the warnings which were so timely, so clearly sounded and so often delivered but I could tell from your reply that you are not such a shallow man, you will not be afraid to stand up for me and others like me beginning on November 9 on that most unhappy day because, above all, you respect truth and will defend to the end all truth tellers and you know that it is not the truth tellers who failed Donald Trump.
I am reassured that you have my back and Trump's back.
Sage advice. I am afraid it will fall on deaf ears. Prior to the debate, even NJ was in play. I didn’t think he woukd win, but polls showed he was within 6 and anecdotal info on the ground showed it was real. After the debate, it was like someone popped a balloon. It was cringe inducing. I will not take a back seat to anyone in my opposition to Hillary, but he blew it.
Excellent Betty Jane. I think it would help if he said that or something close to it, and in a calm and measured tone.
I concur.
Watch where the candidates travel and how they manage the most precious resource has in the closing days of the campaign: their time.
Trump spent time since the debate in several swing days: WI, MI, PA and CO. All of which his own polls inform him are winnable.
Hillary is reduced to stumping on the defense. Hard to reconcile with national polls that supposedly have her up.
People’s best sense of where the race is going is by watching what the candidates do and don’t do and what they say and don’t say.
To be sure, you can get the polls to say whatever you want but human nature doesn’t lie - in a confusing world its constant and predictable.
Trump will win, barring some development that changes the dynamics of the race of completely. Whether or not MSM pollsters catch up with reality, its going to be told in the weeks ahead.
The reason for that is simple: People have made up their minds well before Labor Day weekend and the debate moved few votes.
I don’t expect the remaining debates to change what’s happening on the ground. And one more thing people tend to overlook.
Its a year when 77% of the American people feel the country is moving in the wrong direction and they want change.
The candidate embodying the desire for it is Trump.
Laughable on its face. I don’t even need to see the numbers to know that poll is out of whack. That’s almost as rediculous as the F&M poll claiming she’s up 12.
Trump was ahead IMO, but his blunders and the illegal media leak of his taxes have swung it to Clinton. Now we’ll have a month of “don’t believe the polls” like in 2008 and 2012.
Nathan, you know that polls are used by the msm to shape public opinion, not reflect it in an accurate fashion.
That is the very definition of propaganda, and it is very effective.
We cannot ignore polls, but you can't give them too much validity especially when there are many conflicting polls.
And get the hell off your "smarter than thou" position, you are still pissed that your guy got skunked, and I don't care that you are feeling so much better.
Jagoff!!!
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