Posted on 04/22/2016 2:32:50 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The math is certain, it's time to move on to fighting Hillary.
The current real numbers are just fine, Trump was expected to win New York, optimistic news I had received not with standing. Yes Trump got 90 delegates. Yes he did well. Yes Kasich got 5 delegates, his first in how long? Yes yes and yes. And No I am not even bothered.
Real Numbers: Cruz 696 Delegates to Trumps 815 Delegates.
Whats left now?
California 172 Indiana 57 New Jersey 51 Washington 44 Maryland 38 Nebraska 36 West Virginia 34 South Dakota 29 Connecticut 28 Oregon 28 Montana 27 New Mexico 24 Rhode Island 19 Pennsylvania 17 +54
Trump needs to get 422 delegates, out of that list.
He loses Montana in full, the 54 in Pennsylvania are gone, Oregon is a wipe for him (he gets 3-6), Washington is already soured to him (maybe 4-6 there), Indiana is looking like Ted Cruz, S. Dakota is Ted Cruz, no one will give Nebraska to Trump, New Mexico is unlikely Trump… These “losses” (we will leave the gains in play) add up to 283 of 658, leaving 337 delegates left for Trump to try to win. Look he ain’t taking all of California either, even if he gets 120 out of there he loses 52 more, which means he comes up short by 137 missing delegates.
Yes you read that correct, even if we tilt California for Trump he cannot win, he misses by 137 delegates. Even if he wins three small States, or Indiana and a medium State, he comes up missing by far too much.
Mathematically Trump has been out for a while, it is a Contested Convention.
In fact it is worse than that for Donald Trump because he messed up in West Virginia and automatically loses 3 delegates minimum there, he started his campaign office in California so late that a number of us pundits think he cannot get delegates for all the Congressional Districts there, and Rhode Island is a proportional election.
Trump cannot get enough delegates from the remaining States even if he picks up 2 major surprise wins.
Ted Cruz has seen an additional bunch of Delegates arrive with his securing S. Carolina for sure (while not fully voted yet you can take this to the bank), Nebraska voted their delegates for Cruz, and Indiana is a done deal according to Party Insiders. Those 54 in Pennsylvania are rumored to be in contention, but not for Trump. Apparently Kasich is making a big play there. However it still hurts Trump significantly, leaving him no way to continue on. One of the most surprising developments was Florida and New Jersey. Rubio had his team walk over everyone in Florida, those 99 delegates are his. In New Jersey Christie is actually strong-arming the leadership in a potentially illegal manner, and is securing almost all of the slates there. Yes you read those right, they secured their home States and not for Trump.
However I reiterate, Trump has already lost the challenge to get to 1237 delegates. There is NO CHANCE OF A TRUMP NOMINATION.
Current Pledged Delegates for Cruz is estimated by me to be at 865 delegates.
Where does Ted Cruz secure the remaining delegates? He needs 372 to win the convention on 2nd or 3rd ticket (vote): Oregon 28 Oklahoma 43 California (projected) 100 South Dakota 29 Pennsylvania (Possible Kasich) 54 Arkansas 40 Kansas 40 Kentucky 46 Montana 27
The list goes on. We have only really gotten a bit over half way in the actual positions. Ted Cruz is the champion here, no other is coming close currently. There is well in excess of 450 delegates I deem “likely” to “Guaranteed” for Ted Cruz. Due to the machinations of Kasich, Rubio, and Christie the establishment has secured 235 delegates already.
This means when Ted Cruz gets 137 more delegates to pledge to him that Trump is mathematically out there as well without offering one of them (Not Rubio) the Vice Presidency, and he is 222 delegates being pledged for Ted Cruz to be guaranteed mathematically eliminated in a contested convention.
The odds of Trump getting the nomination is now under 1% in my view.
Yes that statement is correct. Trump cannot turn the tide in enough States, his efforts in New Mexico are also showing lagging (he had to strong arm them to extend the time he needs to search for people to be potential delegates) and he cannot win so many pledges in an obvious hostile venue in the remaining time. Trump is done.
So, here I am, the first of the major and minor Statisticians, I am calling the election formally for Ted Cruz. Yes this is my formal announcement. I was going to wait until April 27th, but the nature of the States has been provided to me by various sources, and I am confident that even with two major upsets that Trump is not going to win.
Congratulations Ted Cruz for winning the Republican Nomination for President.
Benny Hill! My favorite.
Sorry, but the Cruzin math here is just like:
2 + 2 + 2 + Some-’aint-never-gonna-happen-miracle = 100 Million
Maybe you should just stick with president Paul Ryan, then. Or Ted Cruz... You know, The guys who have actually been in govt power over those things, when trump just entered politics 10 months go.
Maybe you should stand on requiring all Americans to live by a socially conservative standard of behavior. That is a sure election winning platform. Ask the last conservative who got elected to the presidency.
Surely you will do better with the Bible holding lovable likeable Calgary Ted who can’t even get his wife and kids to kiss him much less his colleagues on Capital Hill and 60 million American voters to win the WH
Reagan made deals, just as Trump will do.
Reagan traded away things that he cared less about for things that he wanted and needed.
The crucial difference is in what Reagan wanted and needed and what Trump wants and needs.
Reagan wanted to rebuild the military, so he budget discipline for military spending.
Reagan wanted to jump start the economy, so he deficits for tax cuts.
Reagan wanted to secure border, so traded Amnesty for ending illegal immigration. (That one did not work out so well)
The question before us today is, what does Donald Trump want and need and what is he willing to trade away to get it?
In the case of Reagan, we had decades of principled positions advocated publically, cogently and forcefully. We knew what he was after.
In the case of Donald Trump, you have no idea. He is saying one thing now, but just a few years ago he was saying the opposite. Even when he advocates a position, he does not do so cogently or forcefully. He is all over the map.
The way I see it, and you might disagree, Donald Trump wants and needs to be President. That is the end game for him. That is the goal. That is what he wants out of The Deal.
What he is willing to trade away to make that deal is everything.
Every single plank of the platform. Every Republican in Congress. Every conservative principle the GOP ever pretended to stand for.
Everything Must Go.
I really, seriously need a “point and laugh” key on my keyboard...
Common Core math.
The guy is good at pulling numbers out of that sunshine-less place. There are actual current delegates listed at sites and he low-balled Trump by 32 and hi-balled Cruz by 137 (169 in Cruz’s favor) for this exercise in futility.
Great video!
“Marco Rubio has 171 delegates. Think Donald J Trump could make a deal for them?”
Almost certainly not.
He failed.
It’s over.
What happened to Delaware?
This is certainly...provocative. I dare not even read the comments.
“What I can’t figure out is why anybody is happy with that prospect, except the Liberals, who will get whatever they want, and have it given to them by a nominal Republican. “
Liberals will not be happy with any Republican, liberal or conservative. Consider the for the time very liberal policies of Republican Richard M. Nixon:
1) Gave us the EPA and OSHA
2) Ended the US dollar backed by gold
3) Opened up China - more radical at the time than Obama’s overtures to Cuba.
4) Detente with the Soviet Union
5) Continued the Democrat Vietnam war started by JFK and escalated by JFK
6) Proposed national health care with federal subsidies
7) Implemented wage and price controls — direct government management of the markets
8) Proposed a negative income tax for poor people
9) Expanded food stamps
10) Implemented supplemental security income for elderly an disabled
11) COLA, indexing of Social Security payments for inflation began under Nixon.
12) Executive order 11478 in 1969 requiring the US government provide equal opportunity in federal employment for all persons. Prohibited discrimination on basis of race, sex, age, color, religion, national origin, or handicap.
13) Executive order in 1971 requiring affirmative action for federal contractors
Despite governing as a liberal, Nixon was hounded by the press and the Democrats in Congress. The crime for which he was impeached — covering up a third rate burglary — pales in comparison with the current POTUS who routinely violates the Constitution, rules through imperial edicts, kills American citizens with drone strikes and gun running, chooses which laws to enforce, spies on American citizens, and uses the IRS against political enemies.
Of course the key difference between Nixon’s era and today is Nixon faced a real opposition party in Congress. Obama enjoys a Congress fully collaborating with his policies.
The Democrats will fight a President Trump just as aggressively as they fought Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, both Bushes, and will fight a President Cruz or Kasich.
This works better as satire than analysis.
Fiscal Restraint: I think you are wishcasting worse than the author of this article if you believe Donald Trump reign in government spending. Donald Trump is not even pretending to advocate that position. Cutting spending will be the result of disciplined adherence to small government conservative principle. We can't get out of this by saving five cents on a length of pipe, as George Baily would say.
Border Controls: Trump has already advocated Touchback Amnesty. And that is before the horse-trading to come in the General Election. Touchback Amnesty is Amnesty. There will be a system built, but all it will do is legalize the illegal, and it will do nothing to stem the tide.
Nationalism: As for nationalism, Trump's schtick is already beginning to wear thin. He can't even stand up to bathroom bullies to say that men should use the Men's Room and women should use the Women's Room. We all learned that in Kindergarten. How is he going to stand up for anything when he is already punting on something as simple as this?
That said, if Trump is the nominee, I will vote for Trump. No question.
Wait a minute... I thought Ted Cruz was a first term Junior Senator who had not accomplished anything...
Now I find out that Ted Cruz has been at the center of power over everything!
Pick one and stick with it!
AM, I don’t mean to be disrespectful, but why are my comments being moderated?
I don’t think I am being abusive or insulting. I am advocating a position, but I kind of thought that was what this site was all about.
Whatever helps you sleep at night. Oh, I forgot, you don’t sleep at night. or in the day.
LOLOL...
Posting machine never sleeps :)
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