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Why I still believe Donald Trump will never be president
Vox ^ | January 30, 2016 | David Roberts

Posted on 01/30/2016 3:24:55 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

As Donald Trump continues his pundit-defying dominance of the national polls, with early primaries just days away, the once-unthinkable has become all too thinkable: Could Trump actually pull this off? Could he become president?

I'm going to stake out a firm answer: no. Absent extreme and unlikely circumstances*, Trump will never be president.

Jack Shafer argues that Trump's success so far is a "black swan" event, an unpredictable and unrepeatable concatenation of improbable circumstances. That sounds about right.

But just because some political rules and conventions have been violated doesn't mean they've all vanished. Just because Trump makes no sense doesn't mean common sense has become worthless. One black swan does not foretell a flock of black swans....

(Excerpt) Read more at vox.com ...


TOPICS: New York; Campaign News; Issues; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: 1stcanadiansenator; 2016election; 2016trump; cnsrvtvtreehouse; d20roll; dailykos; davidroberts; demagogicparty; disbelieve; dungeonsanddragons; election2016; erickerickson; glennbeck; liberal; marklevin; markosmoulitsas; megynkelly; memebuilding; newyork; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; pinkstain; pinkstate; politico; redstate; redstategathering; rogerailes; sundance; tds; trump; vox
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Except for generals, we’ve never elected someone who has never held any public office.


21 posted on 01/30/2016 3:43:35 PM PST by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: FreedBird

Not going to happen. Ted is already wiggling like a cod out of water. Monday will be time to pack in it if he’s looking up at Marco.


22 posted on 01/30/2016 3:44:20 PM PST by Kudsman (Restore the Republic, repeal the 17th.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Your compatriots are busy posting anti-Cruz articles from those sources.”

I have no “compatriots” here. No one speaks for me. And no one posts for me. And I don’t approve of BS (and I emphasize BS) attacks on any candidates.

I assume by “busy posting” and plural “compatriots” that you are implying MANY anti-cruz posts being made from salon and slate and huffpo, you know, like the hundreds of anti-Trump posts here by cruz-trolls every day, and even though I’ve read almost every post here for the last 24 hours, I don’t recall seeing a deluge of anti-Cruz posts from salon or slate or huffpo.


23 posted on 01/30/2016 3:44:57 PM PST by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: traderrob6

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Clinton beats Bush in four polls shown.

The other ones are all pretty much a dead heat, with the MOE.


24 posted on 01/30/2016 3:45:12 PM PST by exit82 ("The Taliban is on the inside of the building" E. Nordstrom 10-10-12)
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To: FreedBird
What if Trump and Cruz cancel each other out. They hit each other harder and harder and pretty soon they are both damaged.

If Trump is taken out of the race, Cruz will be next. There is no way that Cruz will ever get the nomination. All this feuding between Trump and Cruz supporters will be for naught. So instead of having a president that Sen. Cruz just might be able to get some strong support in the Senate, we'll be right back to square one. Nothing will be gained. Absolutely nothing.

25 posted on 01/30/2016 3:46:32 PM PST by upsdriver
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To: siamesecats

Almost 10 more months of negativity. I don’t think I can handle that much, too depressing.

...

Don’t forget the following eight years of his presidency.


26 posted on 01/30/2016 3:52:20 PM PST by Moonman62 (The US has become a government with a country, rather than a country with a government.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

well, if the election were today Trump would probably win. he can Certainly beat Hillary hands-down (and I think he could beat Bernie the Red)

and there does not seem to be a derailment in sight


27 posted on 01/30/2016 3:53:30 PM PST by faithhopecharity ("Politicians are not born, they're execreted." Marcus Tullius Cicero (106 -- 43 BCE))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

[So to win, Trump will have to reach out to moderates or independents or white-collar professionals or Latinos or college-educated women or ... some other demographic.]

So, isn’t that happening right now? Doesn’t he poll very well with blacks and Hispanics, moderates, independents and even democrats?

[And that’s Trump (who, not coincidentally, refuses to shake hands for fear of germs).]

I guess they haven’t been watching him on the campaign trail shaking hands.


28 posted on 01/30/2016 3:57:07 PM PST by Duchess47 ("One day I will leave this world and dream myself to Reality" Crazy Horse)
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To: traderrob6

He’s not even begun to fight THAT battle, and he’s already, in passing, fired a few salvos their way. They got kinda quiet after that. Hillary is toast. The walls are closing in on the *itch.

May she rot in Leavenworth purgatory, before her rightful place in Hell.


29 posted on 01/30/2016 3:57:44 PM PST by AFreeBird
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To: FreedBird

I think there’s something going on between those two. Can’t say what it is, but there’s something.


30 posted on 01/30/2016 3:59:35 PM PST by AFreeBird
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To: euram
https://grist.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/david-roberts.jpg?w=970&h=545&crop=1

Lefty David Roberts writes for lefty rag Vox.

31 posted on 01/30/2016 4:01:37 PM PST by MarvinStinson
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To: Duchess47

Yea, he shakes hands. Someone here tried to say he was crazy because he washed his hands so much. If you shake as many hands as a high profile businessman/candidate, I’d wash my hands a lot too.

And trust me, here at home, I get enough grief for not washing them enough. And I’m not out there shaking a lot of hands.

The one giving me the grief is a nurse.


32 posted on 01/30/2016 4:04:33 PM PST by AFreeBird
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To: MarvinStinson

Gay?


33 posted on 01/30/2016 4:05:02 PM PST by AFreeBird
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I think the big problem this country has is being politically correct. I've been challenged by so many people, and I don't frankly have time for total political correctness.
And to be honest with you, this country doesn't have time either.

Donald Trump



click the pic
donate to the most conservative online site!


34 posted on 01/30/2016 4:07:01 PM PST by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I am pretty sure he’s right but only because, historically, the way the political establishment deals with populists is with a lone gunman or a mysterious plane crash.


35 posted on 01/30/2016 4:09:46 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum ("The goal of socialism is communism... Hatred is the basis of communism" --Vladimir Lenin)
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To: AFreeBird

LOL, I used to wash my hands after every 1 hour shift when I changed desks at the library. I wasn’t shaking hands, just handling lots of books, full of germs.


36 posted on 01/30/2016 4:11:49 PM PST by Duchess47 ("One day I will leave this world and dream myself to Reality" Crazy Horse)
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To: Duchess47

That’ll do.


37 posted on 01/30/2016 4:18:30 PM PST by AFreeBird
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To: siamesecats

I actually feel for the guy. I thought the same about Obama.....he will come to find out he is wrong.


38 posted on 01/30/2016 4:19:07 PM PST by napscoordinator
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To: AFreeBird

OlE Bernie is not fighting Hilllary the way Trump is fighting Cruz and Cruz is fighting Rubio.


39 posted on 01/30/2016 4:20:28 PM PST by FreedBird
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To: traderrob6

Who gives a damn about polls 10 months out. Rubio was polling very low in Iowa 10 months ago and now look. Polls change constantly.

Trump 2016


40 posted on 01/30/2016 4:20:42 PM PST by napscoordinator
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