Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Polling guru Nate Silver warns Biden could be just one 'McConnell moment' from losing in 2024
Fox ^ | 09/05/2023 | Jeffrey Clark

Posted on 09/05/2023 7:05:38 PM PDT by Drew68

Pollster Nate Silver warned Democrats and the "expert class" that President Biden’s distinction as the oldest-serving president in history at age 80 is a source of "valid concern" for voters.

"If the expert class doesn’t understand that Biden’s age is both a real concern for voters and a valid concern, they’d better be prepared for getting a second Trump term instead," Silver wrote in an analysis piece on Sunday.

"This election is probably going to be close, and [former President] Trump might be only one Biden-has-a-McConnell-moment away from winning," he added.

Pollster Nate Silver warned Democrats and the "expert class" that President Joe Biden’s distinction as the oldest-serving president in history at age 80 is a source of "valid concern" for voters. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster, File)

Recent polling from AP-NORC, Silver wrote, indicate that Americans overall are far more concerned about Biden’s age than Trump's, even when weighed against partisan political divisions. Trump turned 77 in June, while Biden will turn 81 in November.

"[T]he differences can’t entirely be chalked up to partisanship — 74 percent of independents also said that Biden was too old, while just 48 percent said that of Trump," he wrote.

Silver, who is also a trained statistician, argued that even numbers on death show that Biden is at higher risk than Trump. "By age 78 —Trump’s age in 2025 — the risk has roughly doubled to 4.9 percent," Silver wrote, referring to risk of death. "At 82 — Biden’s age if he’s reinaugurated in 2025 — it’s increased further to 7.3 percent. And the risk of dying is 11.0 percent by age 86, which would be Biden’s age at the end of his second term."

(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2024; 2024election; biden; joebiden; natesilver; trump
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-47 next last
It is interesting to note that in the current RCP polling average, Biden is beating Trump by a mere 0.7%

This is the slimmest RCP polling average trail that Trump has ever had in his 7 years in politics.

Silver has mentioned elsewhere that there is a diminishing enthusiasm amongst Biden's minority voters and while they might not flock to Trump, they might just instead simply stay home.

Anyhow, it's noteworthy that Nate Silver is sounding the alarms for the Democrats.

1 posted on 09/05/2023 7:05:38 PM PDT by Drew68
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Drew68

Nate’s a leftist pundit who pretends he a math based neutral

If RCP average is less than a point Trumps up at least 7


2 posted on 09/05/2023 7:11:08 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Drew68

no need to sound the alarm. Nate Silver serves the purpose to make you think there is anything legitimate with any of these elections.

The Democrats could have Hitler and Stalin on a ticket running on a ticket against Jesus and Lincoln, and the Democrat’s cheating machine would win every time.


3 posted on 09/05/2023 7:11:46 PM PDT by MNDude
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Drew68

The Medal of Honor ceremony today drew him closer to the drain.

One of these days he’s going to drop an unmistakably foul pantload.


4 posted on 09/05/2023 7:15:09 PM PDT by lightman (I am a binary Trinitarian. Deal with it!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: lightman

Didn’t seem to affect Fetterman.


5 posted on 09/05/2023 7:16:08 PM PDT by DIRTYSECRET (e allowed )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Drew68

“Just one”? He’s had...how many? For years on end...barely covered. McConnell’s two brief incidents received more coverage than the numerous times Biden has had these sorts of issues for years...and his issues aren’t merely becoming dazed for a few minutes - far worse than that.


6 posted on 09/05/2023 7:17:07 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DIRTYSECRET

They were actually reported as a positive. “Why shouldn’t a disabled man be able to serve his country just like anyone else?”


7 posted on 09/05/2023 7:17:54 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Drew68

Biden has a “McConnell Moment” literally every day


8 posted on 09/05/2023 7:18:50 PM PDT by PGR88
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DIRTYSECRET
Didn’t seem to affect Fetterman.

The seriousness of Fetterman's condition was successfully withheld by the media until enough early voting had taken place.

9 posted on 09/05/2023 7:19:31 PM PDT by Drew68 (Ron DeSantis for President. A conservative who fights and wins. )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: PGR88
Biden has a “McConnell Moment” literally every day

It's starting to appear that way.

I will give Trump credit for not coming across nearly as old as Biden is, even though they are relatively the same age.

At least Trump stays active golfing. I'm serious. He's out in the sun getting at least a little bit of exercise. He's also clearly lost weight.

He's nowhere near he was a decade ago or even in 2016 but he's holding up a helluva lot better than Biden is.

Biden is aging very quickly. He reminds me of my grandpa during the final two years of his life. He just went downhill fast (as tends to happen at that age).

10 posted on 09/05/2023 7:23:50 PM PDT by Drew68 (Ron DeSantis for President. A conservative who fights and wins. )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Drew68

Biden needs a much larger national polling lead to win.

California and New York bank cast millions of excess useless votes for Dems.

Current polling means utter devastation for Biden in the swing states.


11 posted on 09/05/2023 7:26:00 PM PDT by lonestar67 (America is exceptional)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: lonestar67
Biden needs a much larger national polling lead to win.

The concern will be the swing states, that have all seemed to move leftward in the past few years.

12 posted on 09/05/2023 7:29:44 PM PDT by Drew68 (Ron DeSantis for President. A conservative who fights and wins. )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Drew68

Bull Shit! Biden is safe as long as the Democrat hierarchy want him to be safe. They will replace him when they want to replace him.


13 posted on 09/05/2023 7:30:46 PM PDT by sport
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

McConnell had two moments vs dozens of Biden moments.


14 posted on 09/05/2023 7:31:16 PM PDT by TakebackGOP
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Drew68

“This is the slimmest RCP polling average trail that Trump has ever had in his 7 years in politics.”

The MSM pounding the drumbeat that “Trump is the Devil” for seven straight years will do that. Imagine if he had been treated fairly by an impartial press dedicated to pursuing truth and exposing corruption!


15 posted on 09/05/2023 7:34:07 PM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom (“Occupy your mind with good thoughts or your enemy will fill them with bad ones.” ~ Thomas More)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Drew68

Biden just walked out of a Medal of Honor presentation for no reason, does that count?


16 posted on 09/05/2023 7:34:38 PM PDT by gibsonguy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: sport
Bull Shit! Biden is safe as long as the Democrat hierarchy want him to be safe. They will replace him when they want to replace him.

They believe he's safe because they believe, as of now, that 2024 will be a slam-dunk repeat of 2020.

They also know they can't replace him because Kamala is the next in line and she polls even worse than Biden does. Denying her the top spot will lead to an ugly, expensive primary battle.

No, they'll keep Biden and if the nightmare of 2016 starts creeping back into their consciousness, they'll work towards other methods, primarily ballot denial in key swing states.

And if Trump wins a write-in campaign, there will be endless recounts. If this fails, they'll work on faithless electors.

No matter what, they will play every card they have before Trump is allowed back into the White House.

17 posted on 09/05/2023 7:38:08 PM PDT by Drew68 (Ron DeSantis for President. A conservative who fights and wins. )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Drew68

Probably lots of disgust all around. Winner could come down to which side can bring out more of their hardcore base.


18 posted on 09/05/2023 7:39:43 PM PDT by plain talk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: gibsonguy
Biden just walked out of a Medal of Honor presentation for no reason, does that count?

This behavior is now considered "normal" for Biden.

Wait until he takes off his pants at the podium or exhibits some other trait common with full-blown dementia.

19 posted on 09/05/2023 7:40:20 PM PDT by Drew68 (Ron DeSantis for President. A conservative who fights and wins. )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: lightman

Maybe he was the one on that flight where someone trailed liquid feces down the aisle.


20 posted on 09/05/2023 7:40:47 PM PDT by dynachrome (War does not determine who is right, but who is left.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-47 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson