Posted on 10/19/2020 5:34:52 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Here are the RETURNED Florida VBM numbers for 2020 (these are returned ballots but not yet counted).
43.5% of VBM ballots have been returned at this point.
42.0% of REP ballots have been returned and 47.1% of DEM ballots have been returned.
10/19/20: REPs - 757,694, DEMs - 1,227,883, lead of 470,189 for DEMs, 48.9% to 30.2%
10/18/20: REPs - 753,711, DEMs - 1,221,809, lead of 468,098 for DEMs, 48.9% to 30.2%
10/17/20: REPs - 726,797, DEMs - 1,185,892, lead of 459,095 for DEMs, 49.1% to 30.1%
10/16/20: REPs - 681,111, DEMs - 1,124,439, lead of 443,328 for DEMs, 49.4% to 29.9%
10/15/20: REPs - 623,395, DEMs - 1,043,514, lead of 420,119 for DEMs, 49.9% to 29.8%
10/14/20: REPs - 564,361, DEMs - 967,036, lead of 402,675 for DEMs, 50.4% to 29.4%
10/13/20: REPs - 519,876, DEMs - 904,217, lead of 384,341 for DEMs, 50.7% to 29.2%
10/12/20: REPs - 487,754, DEMs - 850,328, lead of 362,574 for DEMs, 50.9% to 29.2%
Magic Number for Reps to hit in IPEV: 359,000 lead
Combined VBM+IPEV Magic Number for Reps to hit in IPEV: Dem lead of 294k
By comparison, in 2016 Dem combined lead on Election Eve was 96,450. This year, Reps can over come a bigger Dem combined lead because ED voting will have a larger percentage of Rs.
And in person early voting begins...
Is this looking good or bad? or don’t know yet?
Here's the cannibalization info from lefties at Florida Politics.
79% of Florida Republicans who voted in all of the previous four elections have yet to cast a ballot.
Democrats have 65.3% of their 4/4 voters.
This represents a 474,484 voter advantage for Republicans. /2
The BIG factor is that Dems are much more concerned about COVID as they vote, and have told pollsters they plan to vote early in MUCH larger numbers.
It’s not exactly a fair comparison, because states with mail-in only elections tend to run strongly Democrat, but polls showed Dem plan to vote by mail 3:1 over Republicans.
We don’t know yet.
Voter registration numbers for Rs in Florida say Trump should win state.
I’m hopeful as early voting starts today.
Democrats only gained 2K. Sweet.
Right now, I’d say 50/50 whether Ds hit 653k. Its a number based on many assumptions, but I think its a fair threshold.
Palm Beach IPEV this morning: Rs 676, Ds 1223
Broward: Rs 568, Ds 2428
Checked some R counties and no numbers yet.
Even more good news is that Ravi’s numbers do not capture first time voters. At the Trump rallies, they collect stats on the attendees. Usually anywhere from 15-25% of the rally attendees say they have never voted before. I think this translates to a huge number of Trump voters not showing up in the polling data.
In Florida, 27% of Republicans and only 12% of Democrats plan on voting on Election Day.
Clay: Rs 659, Ds 375.
Let’s see how the R counties do over the next 2 weeks
As of St Pete’s polls October 11-12 poll, 34% claimed to have already voted, including 41% of Democrats. But as of October 19, early voters made up only 24% of 2016’s turnout.
“In Florida, 27% of Republicans and only 12% of Democrats plan on voting on Election Day.”
2016 ED was Rs 32%, Ds 28%.
Election Day will be big for Rs. It would still be nice to win IPEV to cut the Dem numbers down though.
Early voting started in ark today. Huge lines. Unheard of. Western ark is not a Biden stronghold. Lol
Even better news: As Richard Baris confirmed to me yesterday, most Hispanic votes going to Trump that are NOT Cuban or Venezuelan will be registered Ds.
This is huge.
I spoke with Baris yesterday. He isn’t concerned in the least about FL. Trump by 3 there, he says.
But understand that FL still has more registered Democrats than Republicans (about 180k more), so technically it stands to reason that Dems will always have the lead on voting.
These were the registration numbers in FL as of 8/31/2020:
Dems - 5,203,795
Reps - 5,020,199
Other - 3,841,633
What you need to consider is that a sizeable amount of Florida (nearly 4 million) are Trump's votes to win. Even if Trump just won 55% of those independents, the 382,000 difference is more than double the current Dem registration advantage. Thus Trump wins FL easily.
If Trump gets 60-65% of those Independents, it becomes a rout.
Then you have a number of Dems who will vote Trump.
To sum up, things are looking very good for Trump in Florida.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.