[SpeedyInTexas]

Magic Number for Dems to hit in VBM: 653,000 lead

Magic Number for Reps to hit in IPEV: 359,000 lead

Combined VBM+IPEV Magic Number for Reps to hit in IPEV: Dem lead of 294k

By comparison, in 2016 Dem combined lead on Election Eve was 96,450. This year, Reps can over come a bigger Dem combined lead because ED voting will have a larger percentage of Rs.

[SpeedyInTexas]

And in person early voting begins...

[Henderson]

Is this looking good or bad? or don’t know yet?

[dangus]

The BIG factor is that Dems are much more concerned about COVID as they vote, and have told pollsters they plan to vote early in MUCH larger numbers.

It’s not exactly a fair comparison, because states with mail-in only elections tend to run strongly Democrat, but polls showed Dem plan to vote by mail 3:1 over Republicans.

[bort]

Democrats only gained 2K. Sweet.

[dangus]

In Florida, 27% of Republicans and only 12% of Democrats plan on voting on Election Day.

[Ravi]

Let’s see how the R counties do over the next 2 weeks

[dangus]

As of St Pete’s polls October 11-12 poll, 34% claimed to have already voted, including 41% of Democrats. But as of October 19, early voters made up only 24% of 2016’s turnout.

[arkfreepdom]

Early voting started in ark today. Huge lines. Unheard of. Western ark is not a Biden stronghold. Lol

[SamAdams76]

IPEV starts in FL today and look for the Republicans to start chopping away substantially at that EV lead.

But understand that FL still has more registered Democrats than Republicans (about 180k more), so technically it stands to reason that Dems will always have the lead on voting.

These were the registration numbers in FL as of 8/31/2020:

Dems - 5,203,795
Reps - 5,020,199
Other - 3,841,633

What you need to consider is that a sizeable amount of Florida (nearly 4 million) are Trump's votes to win. Even if Trump just won 55% of those independents, the 382,000 difference is more than double the current Dem registration advantage. Thus Trump wins FL easily.

If Trump gets 60-65% of those Independents, it becomes a rout.

Then you have a number of Dems who will vote Trump.

To sum up, things are looking very good for Trump in Florida.

[Political Junkie Too]

Let me see if I understand these numbers.

From the Florida Elections statistics website:

Registered:

• Republicans: 5,169,012
• Democrats: 5,303,254

Requested Mail-In Ballots:

• Republicans: 1,801,298 (34.8%)
• Democrats: 2,602,802 (49.1%)

Returned Mail-In Ballots

• Republicans: 757,696 (42.1% of requested)
• Democrats: 1,227,929 (47.2% of requested)

Not Yet Voted Mail-In Ballots:

• Republicans: 1,043,602 (20.2% of registered)
• Democrats: 1,374,873 (25.9% of registered)

In-Person Voters:

• Republicans: 3,367,714 (65.2% of registered)
• Democrats: 2,702,452 (51.0% of registered)

Total Outstanding Ballots:

• Republicans: 4,411,316 (85.3% of registered)
• Democrats: 4,077,325 (76.9% of registered)

I'm not sure what these numbers suggest, but I needed to write them down.

-PJ

[pghbjugop]

FWIW, Wifey works for county here in FL. Also an EV place. She said the county workers all came to work with their Trump flags on their trucks today which are parked in the EV county parking lot while they are off working in their county vehicles