Posted on 11/06/2019 7:50:00 AM PST by SeekAndFind
President Trump tried. And he warned Kentuckians at a huge rally a few days ago that the gubernatorial race was going to be viewed by all as a referendum on him.
So the apparent loss of Republican Gov. Matt Bevin to Democrat Andy Beshear last night, is a stinger. A Trump endorsement is usually a surefire means of winning the election and it has been up until now for nearly all candidates in special elections, which is why so many candidates want them. Once Trump endorses, Republicans almost always win.
But apparently, not even a Trump endorsement was enough for Bevin, who had some popularity problems. The punditocracy of course is calling curtains for Trump. The Washington Post is calling it "embarrassing." But there's plenty of reason to be dubious.
Bevin seems to have lost for three reasons:
One as the Washington Post notes, he only got into office four years ago by a thin 85,000-vote margin. So he was on thin ice all through his term and didn't work to increase his support.
Two, he had a third party challenge. Sen. Rand Paul is a popular Senator in Kentucky and on that ground alone, his libertarian allies managed to run a third-party candidate that won 2% of the vote. Had they not, Bevin might have pulled through.
Three, and this seems to have been the big one: Bevin wasn't popular. A poll that ran in April had him ranked as the least popular governor in all 50 states. According to the WaPo, he had a brash abrasive personality that tended to annoy people.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
His personality grated on people a lot more than his conservative politics.
They just couldn’t stand him. They love the GOP in KY but NOT Bevin.
FROM HOTAIR:
When I turned on CNN this morning, the crew there was already doing their best to make Trump’s prediction come true and paint this as a defeat for the President, and since he had personally gone down to the Bluegrass State to try to drag Bevin over the finish line I suppose that’s technically true. But some fairly recent polls showed Bevin trailing Beshear by more than a dozen points. Assuming he loses, it will be by roughly one or two points, so it appears that Trump did indeed rally the vote for him and deliver a better than anticipated turnout.
As of last month, Morning Consult still had Trump’s approval rating in Kentucky at plus 15. Also, Kentucky voters have continued to hand control of both houses in the legislature to the GOP for the past three years on top of previously electing Bevin, so they clearly don’t have an issue with voting for Republicans.
The fact is that Bevin just wasn’t a popular governor in his home state. The press is jumping all over themselves today to remind everyone that Bevin was ranked as the second least popular governor in the country. (Behind only the scandal-plagued Democrat Gina Raimondo in Rhode Island.)
Bevin didn’t do himself any favors with some of the political battles he picked to fight while in office. We’re talking about a state where a Republican should easily be able to stay afloat, but Matt Bevin seemed to find a way to get under people’s skin. With all that in mind, it’s probably a miracle that he came this close to reelection and one could credibly argue that he only pulled within ten thousand votes because Trump showed up to throw him a lifeline.
Either way, we may have to wait for a recount if Bevin decides to request one. (He can, but he’ll have to pay for it out of his own campaign funds if he does.) But finding ten thousand votes won’t be any small feat.
FROM HOTAIR:
When I turned on CNN this morning, the crew there was already doing their best to make Trump’s prediction come true and paint this as a defeat for the President, and since he had personally gone down to the Bluegrass State to try to drag Bevin over the finish line I suppose that’s technically true. But some fairly recent polls showed Bevin trailing Beshear by more than a dozen points. Assuming he loses, it will be by roughly one or two points, so it appears that Trump did indeed rally the vote for him and deliver a better than anticipated turnout.
As of last month, Morning Consult still had Trump’s approval rating in Kentucky at plus 15. Also, Kentucky voters have continued to hand control of both houses in the legislature to the GOP for the past three years on top of previously electing Bevin, so they clearly don’t have an issue with voting for Republicans.
The fact is that Bevin just wasn’t a popular governor in his home state. The press is jumping all over themselves today to remind everyone that Bevin was ranked as the second least popular governor in the country. (Behind only the scandal-plagued Democrat Gina Raimondo in Rhode Island.)
Bevin didn’t do himself any favors with some of the political battles he picked to fight while in office. We’re talking about a state where a Republican should easily be able to stay afloat, but Matt Bevin seemed to find a way to get under people’s skin. With all that in mind, it’s probably a miracle that he came this close to reelection and one could credibly argue that he only pulled within ten thousand votes because Trump showed up to throw him a lifeline.
Either way, we may have to wait for a recount if Bevin decides to request one. (He can, but he’ll have to pay for it out of his own campaign funds if he does.) But finding ten thousand votes won’t be any small feat.
The country is split roughly 50/50 and is moving to the left for too many reasons, immigrants voting, millenials wanting socialism etc
For a red state like KY to vote democrat boggles my mind.
I do not think Pres. Trump has the reelection in the bag as many think ala HC 2016.
Democrats won 10 of the last 12 governor’s elections in Kentucky BEFORE yesterday. Bevin was actually an anomaly as a GOP governor even in a state that votes “red” on a national level.
RE: I do not think Pres. Trump has the reelection in the bag as many think ala HC 2016.
You hit the nail right on the head.
Trump is popular WITH HIS BASE. That is all we can conclude from the huge attendance at his rallies ( Kentucky included).
The fact that Congress flipped to Democrat by a wide margin in 2018, despite warnings to the American electorate that voting Democrat would result in this impeachment brouhaha we are seeing today tells me that Trump is widely unpopular with Democrats *AND* a significant percentage of independents.
We cannot let our guard down or we will find a Democrat in the White House and a repeat of 2008.
In KY they will vote for a Democrat from time to time. Beshear only beat Bevin by a narrow margin.
He’s a dead man walking come 2023.
The KY Governors race came down to Jefferson County. Bevins lost it by 100,000+ votes. The most McConnell ever lost the county by is 40,000. Bevins actions as Governor against the teachers allied all teachers against him. Otherwise, Bevisn performed as a R would be expected to in a statewide race in KY.
The article does not contain the phrase “mighty Trump endorsement,” either in the title or in the text. How did it end up in quotes in your title?
Kentucky turned even redder. GOP knocked off long time Dem incumbents in the SOS and AG offices.
That’s great news in spite of the Bevin loss.
So in standard Fake News Fiction let fixate on the fraudulent spin about Trump being the cause an unpopular gov losing (despite Trump's rally pulling him from 15% down in the polls into 4100 votes of wining). Every other GOP state wide candidate got 100,000 more votes then Bevin. KY is a non story for the Dems.
The real story is the blue states, like VA, got bluer and the red states like MS and KY got redder. The political positions on both sides are hardening quickly.
From what I've seen of Kentucky politics, since about 1995, they vote Dem for Governor and strongly Republican for other state and national offices. Bevin was the first Republican governor in many decades.
A lot of people in Jefferson split ticket. No one voted Democrat except for Beshear.
He was a safe protest vote.
RE: The article does not contain the phrase “mighty Trump endorsement,”
It is in the subtitle of the article and search for the string: “Message from Kentucky: Strong candidates matter”
Look for it here:
https://www.americanthinker.com/
NONSENSE! Shifty Schiff, is that you?
A good black conservative, Cameron, won the atty gen slot here in KY.
Hopefully, he can keep that soon to be dem gov in check.
Many voters want free stuff and probably misery.
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