Warming Russia-Turkey relations send a chill through Ukraine

Christian Science Monitor ^ | October 11, 2016 | By Fred Weir

[Brad from Tennessee]

Moscow — Leaders of Turkey and Russia signed a long-delayed deal Monday to build the TurkStream gas pipeline under the Black Sea to deliver Russian gas to Europe's doorstep within three years.

The rapid warming trend in Russo-Turkish relations holds deep implications for Syria's immediate crisis, which dominated the talks and the subsequent headlines, but the fallout from that pipeline deal is a potentially crushing blow to struggling pro-Western Ukraine and may be rearranging strategic realities around the region for many years to come.

Analysts say that if TurkStream goes ahead it will enable Moscow to cut its former main gas transit partner, Ukraine, completely out of the loop when current contracts expire in 2019. For Ukraine, it spells the loss of about $2 billion in annual transit fees paid by Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, which will make a huge hole in the struggling country's state revenues. More importantly, it will also upend Ukraine's strategic dream of integrating with the European Union (EU) as the key energy hub that mediates Russian energy to the continent's thirsty markets. . .

[nickcarraway]

So many people here were incorrectly claiming Turkey and Russia were going to war.

[nathanbedford]

Behold the fecklessness of American foreign policy.

Behold the self-destructive American energy policy.

Behold the triumph of Russian foreign policy.

Many of us who do not run with a hero worshiping domestic crowd do not acknowledge Vladimir Putin as a new saint, rather we have been well aware for some time of the axis of power, a caliphate if you will, running from Iran to the shores of the Mediterranean at Syria and including huge portions of Iraq and probably all of the Iraq.

in We have seen American foreign policy enable this caliphate to form by its ideologically forced withdrawal from Iraq, by its mindless deal with Iran removing the sanctions and facilitating their reach for nuclear weapons, and even actually financing this axis with billions of dollars delivered in cash, in secret, by night.

We have seen that this axis because of its Russian partnership is now equipped with nuclear weapons and the means of delivering them by plane and rocket already based in Iran and Syria. Any reasonable observer knows that Iran will soon have its own atomic weapon, thanks to Hillary and Barak.

At a time when Iran was on the ropes financially from the sanctions, Obama lifted the sanctions. At a time when Russia is utterly dependent on the price of oil for the regime there to survive, Obama wages war on energy. Hillary applauds him. So now instead of bankruptcy this new caliphate will be awash in oil and gas money.

Europe will become even more dependent upon Russia and the danger of a defection from NATO and from American influence by Germany, grown even more dependent on Russian energy, increases geometrically. Anyone who does not understand the potential significance of a relationship between Germany and Russia does not know the history of the Ribbentrop/Molotov pact and it's immediate consequences.

All of this was a stunning failure of American foreign policy. All of this is a triumph of Russian foreign policy which converted an enemy with whom it was in virtual war, Turkey, into a business partner and effective ally against the West possessed of an economic gun pointed directly at the head of the southern flank of NATO.

Let's see Hillary spin this one.

[TYVets]

The rapid warming trend in Russo-Turkish relations

Nothing in the news about the United States hydrogen bombs stored on the Turkish airbase in the pass few weeks?

The number was reported to be as high as 60 to 100, with the exact number classified.

Reports that the bombs were to be moved to Hungary seemed to be a quick answer for public consumption.

A warming trend of Russo-Turkish relations and perhaps US nukes involved is a bit troubling.

[nickcarraway]

Russia and Turkey were allies long before the dust up earlier this year. While the ignoratti were saying Russia and Turkey would go to war, I waa saying they would remain allies. It wasn’t hard to predict, and it had nothing to do with U.S. policy.

[nathanbedford]

Russia and Turkey were allies long before the dust up earlier this year.

Russia and Turkey have been historic enemies since the 17th century. Turkey has historically denied Russia access to the Mediterranean from the Black Sea from time to time. They were enemies in the Crimean war. Turkey is a member of NATO. Although Russia has supplied Turkey with energy and tourists who used to be able to spend petrodollars, Turkey has been a member of NATO since the early 50s out of fear of the Soviet Union.

It's not so much that Turkey has resumed its natural alliance with Russia but that Turkey has succumbed to Islamic radicalization and pulled away from the United States.

This is a monumental and historic failure of American foreign policy. There is no way to put lipstick on it.

[thinden]

It’s the facts maam. Just the facts.

[Krosan]

These reports about the bombs being moved to Hungary were fake news from conspiracy sites. Probably spread by Russians as they like to spread fake news about their former slave states being in NATO a nuclear threat. If nukes were to be moved anywhere it would probably be Italy as they already have the infrastructure.

[agere_contra]

Turkey and Russia used to be on opposite sides in Obama’s war on Syria. ISIS oil came through Turkey. That Russian fighter was shot down and its crew murdered.

In response the Russians stopped going on holiday to Turkey. The bottom dropped out of the Turkish tourist industry. Erdogan came under enormous internal pressure.

And then there was the coup attempt. And right after it Erdogan and Putin started mending fences.

Now, nobody deserves a coup more than Erdogan, assuming the coup is an Ataturk-style constitutional coup.

But now I’m wondering if the White House organised the coup attempt. Obama may have attempted to remove Erdogan because Erdogan was moving East and detaching from ISIS? (This is speculation on my part).

[knarf]

Not to mention the jobs that are created.

Energy wealth into the pockets of the people.

[mountn man]

ping

[Hacksaw]

Turkey was probably made an "offer they couldn't refuse". Rumors that the US engineered the attempted coup in Turkey probably didn't help either.

Obama has the opposite of the Midas touch - everything he touches turns to sh*t.

[HiTech RedNeck]

Russia is in a pretty position to be a major oil producer to the world. Does this have to mean hostilities? I’m not so sure. Most world uses of energy are in peace.

[HiTech RedNeck]

How Turkey will be viewed by the rest of the Islamic world for helping Russia — another infidel land — supplant that world’s main sustaining export, might be less clear. I suspect that it would be easy for jealousy to reign.

[nathanbedford]

Does this have to mean hostilities?

No, of course not, but it might be an alternative means of waging war.

The significance of this pipeline deal is threatening to the chances of Western Europe remaining civilized. With Turkey possessed of a pipeline switch and able to interdict the flow of gas and oil into southern Europe, it will be even more difficult to deny Turkey membership in the European Union. Short of that, it will be exceedingly difficult to bar Turks from free access into Europe, especially Germany. The Islamization of Europe, already approaching the inevitable, will accelerate

The pipeline deal has significance for American economic interests. We are trying to convert Europe away from Russian energy and turning it to the consumption of American gas delivered by huge ships. Presumably a pipeline will be able to deliver the energy cheaper, putting us at a profound disadvantage for a fledgling energy industry by denying us our biggest market. We have surplus gas but no place to sell it, or at least no place with the demand of Western Europe.

I had dinner last night with a Russian who is very knowledgeable and who said that the entire game of Russia in the Mideast is the construction of these pipelines. Do not be surprised to find that Chinese money will finance the construction of these very expensive pipelines. He estimates that the plunging energy prices from about US$100 per barrel to today's level has forced Vladimir Putin to inflate the ruble by at least 30%. It appears that this new source of energy income will shore up the Russian regime for some time to come. Thus, the opportunity to influence Russian behavior in the world through energy policy has probably now been lost and if we are to project our interests in conflict with the Russians we will be forced to look closely at the military option. In other words, this makes war even more likely.

Overall, this development makes America weaker and Russia stronger, it turns the balance of power in the Middle East on its head and threatens the of power that favors America, at least in Europe. Much depends on the overall intentions of Vladimir Putin but it is hardly reassuring to place one's expectations for peace in the hands of a murderer and a thug.

[snoringbear]

“So many people here were incorrectly claiming Turkey and Russia were going to war.”

Well, it remains to be seen. Turkey is a large country and has the scale and will to fight. Should Russia try any mischief with Turkey Russia will regret it.

[HiTech RedNeck]

Strength is a morally neutral thing in and of itself. The purposes to which it is put make the difference to good or to evil.

I expect, per biblical prophecy, for the entire remaining world to dissolve in evil one day. But we knew that was coming anyhow. That, to me, is not a reason to put a cynical spin on present beneficial uses of power or strength. New generations will eventually inherit the resources, and in the end (to the extent that the resources remain) they will be used evilly. But that eventuality doesn’t care what part of the world it occurs in.

We could see the rise of a world of peaceful power for a season, and if we do, by all means we should give thanks to the Lord for it and use it for good as long as we can.

[ought-six]

NATO. What a joke.

[HiTech RedNeck]

By the way, as with Donald Trump, I am ascribing what is happening to the hand of God. God and does can use people that are considerably less than godly in the hands of His own superior power to furnish His own blessings to the world.

Putin can wish every evil thing in the book, but if God hems him in, the result will be a nothingburger.

[ought-six]

Yup, you summed it up quite succinctly.