Posted on 05/31/2016 2:25:28 PM PDT by goldstategop
natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): I’m not ready to accept yet that we’ll have a whole new map this time around. There will probably be some differences, yes. But my prior is that we’ll still have mostly the same swing states as last time, and I haven’t seen persuasive enough evidence yet to convince me otherwise. Here’s why: These polls are showing huge, enormous numbers of undecided voters. In that Monmouth poll of New Jersey, for instance, it’s Clinton 38 percent and Trump 34 percent, leaving 28 percent undecided, voting third party or saying they’ll sit out the general election. The Monmouth poll is a bit of an extreme case, but there are plenty of polls that are like, Clinton 43 percent, Trump 41 percent, undecided/other 16 percent, which is still a huge number.
micah: Is that unusual?
natesilver: It’s unusual, yes. By comparison, in 2012, we were seeing numbers more like Obama 47 percent, Romney 45 percent at a comparable point in the campaign.
But my point is that with all these undecided voters, it makes the state-by-state numbers a little flatter right now, if that makes sense.
I’d guess that if you looked at the makeup of the undecided voters in New Jersey, they’d look like they’ll probably wind up being Clinton supporters. And if you look at them in Arizona or Utah or one of the states where Trump has looked surprisingly vulnerable,they’d look like they’ll eventually be Trump supporters.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Especially with all the undecideds. They usually break for the winner.
Should they break for Trump by October, he can punch his admission ticket to the White House.
Nate is way off his game this cycle....he’s just another guy right now, a JAG. He does not understand the social dynamics at all that are swirling around the immigration & trade issues.
Nate Silver also said Trump couldn't win the primary. Silver is just plain wrong when he talks about Trump.
Trump from the get go has been wrong about Trump just like the GOPe and mainstream press. We will see how things evolve this fall. Best election in a very long time. The people actually have a say in the outcome.
Pundits are becoming circumspect about Trump.
Although 538 still lists Hillary as the favorite to win in November.
They might react by being over-circumspect, if they blew it on Trump in the primaries.
It’s not “can win”.
It’s unless he blows it in a yuuuuge way he’s a walk-in with a Reagan-sized landslide.
Although she is taking on water.
I think if you read the article, your comment is wildly inaccurate. He is not "conceding" he is saying it's crazy to say he can't win, and that furthermore, no one is making the argument he can't win. He may be very wrong, but that is what he is saying.
Silver always makes it too complicated. The weenie always loses. Dole to Clinton, gore to Bush, etc. it’s ever thus.
Nate does not operate in the binary world of win-yes-or-no.
He operates in probabilities. What is the probability of 51 rolls of the dice with the amount of electoral votes on each of the 51 rolls to be totally different?
But Nate’s models are totally dependent on patterns of the past. Since those have beeb proven irrelevant this election cycle, Nate knows that his model is fatally flawed.
For example, Nate’s model depended heavily on the number of endorsements by governors, senators and king-makers. But Jeb! had the most endorsements. Even Linpsey had more endorsements than Trump in Nate’s model.
Now consider external events. Suppose a new crisis arises...economic, terrorist, natural disaster, etc. Trump will show leadership by his inherent personality. But he might (finally) go too far. Hillary tends to be much less decisisve. Unless she changes her personality, she will not demonstrate leadership. She’ll demonstrate mumble-jumble.
But consider a different type of external event: Bill Clinton is (conveniently) shot with a gun by a white guy. Instantly the media is poised to blame guns and white privilege and eke every ounce of guilt and sympathy for Hillary. How dare you mention Benghazi or emails when this other topic so clearly decides the race for Hillary-common-sense?
Or someone takes a shot at Obama? Or Obama is rushed to the hospital on Nov 1 for mysterious reasons.
Or consider its Biden, not Hillary and Obama resigns in September and Biden runs as the incumbent?
Trump made this the unusual year. Therefore, in the minds of all Alinskyites (and Paul Newman fans, which is every Dem leader over 50) the Dems are entirtled and can get away with any un-conventional act.
See the knife fight in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. That movie scene is in the minds of every Alinksyite and every Dem over 50. They are currently trying to figure out how to play it. But I have no doubt they plan to play it.
Summary: They hope the media gives Johnson a LOT of coverage.
Trump could use Johnson as a catspaw to pry votes away from Hillary. Not sure how but he’s been very original in his campaign.
I don’t think a dismissive treatment (ala Jeb!) of Johnson will work.
Most people are just are just plain wrong when they talk about Trump.
Pardon my ignorance but what is a catspaw??
This year it will be Alinskyite vs. Alinksyite. But, no matter who the candidate was, including Trump, we have to deal with the post 2012 worlds, where a Republican may not be able to win, no matter what. And Obama’s approval ratings have been going up. His approval is above his disapproval. That’s the way it is...
That is very true.
“Cat’s paw is a phrase derived from La Fontaine’s fable, “The Monkey and the Cat”, referring to a person used unwittingly or unwillingly by another to accomplish the other’s own purpose.”
Thought it was one word.
I’m saying Trump should treat Johnson in a way that causes divisiveness between Johnson’s and Hillary’s supporters, like he used Bernie in the California ‘debate offer’ for instance.
Thanks. Yes I agree sounds like a good strategy.
538 bbb
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