Posted on 01/17/2016 7:12:04 PM PST by kik5150
While the media has been largely consumed by examining the GOP front-runner, asking about second choices is the key to understanding how the race will likely develop once candidates drop in viability or drop out altogether. In other words, who stands to topple Donald Trump once the field narrows?
The conventional thinking is that there is a schism between “establishment†and “non-establishment†voters in the Republican Party. If this holds true, then we should see “non-establishment†voters supporting other “non-establishment†candidates once their first choice is out of the race. The NBC|Survey Monkey online poll for the week of December 28, 2015 to January 3, 2016 provides a look at whether the pattern holds true. For most candidates, the second choice preference follows this pattern – but not always. The second choice for all candidates is a non-establishment candidate. Around 14% of registered Republicans who are not certain they will vote for their first choice support Trump, while around 22% support Ted Cruz. In fact, nearly every candidate except for Trump does better on second choices, suggesting that Trump’s numbers will soften in the coming months as candidates drop out, no matter who those candidates are.
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.com ...
But countered with this more recent polling after the debate:
- - - -
“Reuters Poll January 15 [Trump vs Cruz - Post debate Trump +4 Cruz -2 Trump 44% Cruz 33%]
Reuters ^ | January 15, 2016 | Reuters
Posted on 1/16/2016, 7:08:29 AM by GonzoII
If the Republican Presidential Primaries came down to these candidates, for whom would you vote?”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3384406/posts
Weird title. Cruz is on top at second.
Don’t they say that if a candidate breaks 40% they’re on their way?
A touch of humility wouldn't hurt Trump one bit.
Yeah I’ve heard that before too.
“Weird title. Cruz is on top at second.”
reminds me of Pia Wurtzbach at Miss Universe..
Another name for second is loser.
2nd place is the first loser
Nah, by that point, they will want to vote for a winner. As candidates drop, the majority of supporters will go with who’s going to win; Trump.
At 5.7” inches tall first thing Cruz has ever been on top of.
Cruz also the highest favorables and lowest unfavorables on all recent polls with internals I have looked at which is I think all of them.
And of course beats DT head to head in several polls including a recent NH poll.
40% in a dozen+ field is what dreams are made up of. Bush, Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, Christie etc would kill for 40% in this field.
Straw man poll. There is no 2 man primary until well past May 2016.
What will you be saying next? Ted can fix it.
At least Romney didn't resort to really tasteless, rude and awful references to us, so coming to his side was a decision but there still were people (including the people here, never accepted voting for Romney, period!)
You must be a FR Newby not to remember those called similar comments coming from Trump supporters, who now look for such pragmatism!
Why do you think Romney lost?
Poll: Trump leads, but when it comes to second choice, Cruz is on topWhat kind of illogical lunacy is that supposed to prove?
You can't also be on top for 2nd choice when you're already on top of ALL the choices.
Where do you people come up with this whacky meaningless crap?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.