Skip to comments.It's probably good expectations wise for Trump to be considered the underdog in Iowa [vanity]
Posted on 12/12/2015 3:16:51 PM PST by springwater13
Iowa caucuses are dominated by religious social conservatives who go nowhere in New Hampshire. That means a Trump victory against polls will be all the more dramatic. He gets to frame his victory as the people vs. the dishonest media/establishment and their BS polls. The media will go unhinged and into pandemonium. If he wins Iowa, there is no stopping Trump. He rolls into NH, South Carolina, SEC. Game Over. He wins. Keeping expectations in check for Trump in Iowa is to his advantage.
It also takes A LOT OF HEAT off of Trump. With being the front runner, Cruz is going to face major scrutiny like never before. Trump has prospered taking more incoming than anyone else for the last 6 months. Carson wilted under the heat. Now it is Cruz's challenge. Super PACS and GOPe forces will now run attack ads at Cruz instead of Trump to blunt his momentum so he doesn't run away with Iowa. They fear attacking Trump will only move more of his base to Cruz.
The key to winning Iowa is to peak at the end and turn out your voters. Listen to what Chuck Laudner, Trump's Iowa campaign manager, says about his organization. He knows what he is doing. Trump has a database of many, many tens of thousands of voters who have signed pledge cards. Trump is getting crowds to his rallies in the thousands in counties where in 2012 only a few hundred people turned out to vote for the winner.
Basically, if Trump turns out the majority of his support he wins. It's all about organization. He has the votes to win. The question is do they turn out? I think if they show up for 3 hour rallies. They'll show up for a 45 minute caucus.
Same for Jeb. LOL
Your not going to let him get away with saying that about you.
Fight Fight Fight
Interesting Story about his Iowa Campaign Manager:
I hope Cruz wins Iowa and several other good primaries; but I hope Trump wins a decisive nomination and they form a ticket.
I know that’s not much of an original thought around here. But sometimes the best thoughts are not original!
Yes, I think all teams need to manage their expectations for iowa, which has given some wacky results durung the last few elections.
2012 - Rick Santorum (25%), Mitt Romney (25%), Ron Paul (21%)
2008 - Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%)
2004 - George W. Bush (unopposed)
2000 - George W. Bush (41%), Steve Forbes (31%), Alan Keyes (14%)
1996 - Bob Dole (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%)
1992 - George H. W. Bush (unopposed)
1988 - Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush (19%)
1984 - Ronald Reagan (unopposed)
1980 - George H. W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan (30%), Howard Baker (15%)
1976 - Gerald Ford (45%) and Ronald Reagan (43%)
Huckabee...... winner then loser
Santorum....... winner then loser
Trump says it is important to come in first to secure as many delegates as possible and tamp down speculation of a brokered convention. Plus he just really likes to win. :)
If Cruz can consolidate fiscal and social conservative support, he will win. Trump has money and name ID, but is not conservative.
Conservative enough for me, this time around. Time for ideological purity later if Trump wins this.
While I will vote for Cruz if nominated for pres, good point!
AND AS IF BY MAGIC.
"We are now hearing news of the Empire Striking Back. We are hearing about a brokered convention.
Iowa is just one state. You can win Iowa and still lose. It is the big picture that matters. Most importantly, we must not let the liberal Dem/GOP coalition cause us to wipe out the entire top tier. Let the people decide for themselves according to the issues. That’s how it is suppose to work.
The question is, what 'kind' of person do we need right now to keep the US from going straight to hell ?
Would it be better to have a conservative or a risk-taker ?
"The dirty little secret is, If you take a close look at the actual rules for a convention (which are written by the party), you will find out that if the 'leaders' of the party decide on a brokered convention, the delegate count doesn't actually matter. ALL of the delegates could be pledged to ONE candidate, and the 'leaders' could at least try to bully them into nominating someone else. The ONLY votes that actually count of those cast by the delegates at the convention, not the votes that choose the delegates."
(see link in post 15 for source)
2012 - Barack Obama
2008 - Barack Obama
2004 - George W. Bush
2000 - Al Gore
1996 - Bill Clinton
1992 - Bill Clinton
1988 - Michael Dukakis
1984 - Ronald Reagan
Yet Iowa is so important in choosing our candidates.
Yes, but that does not mean that the individual voters do not ultimately count the most. The power grubbers can pull that off, but it will be at their own peril. It is just a candidate, not an office yet. Voters can then turn around and vote for someone else and even abandon the party altogether.
The presidency, the office, will be decided by the people via the electoral college. So if a party wants to ignore the will of the voters, they are setting themselves up to be losers.
That is why it is vitally important that we get someone in there who will end the power reign of terror in the upper ranks of the GOP.
I think the theory behind that brokered option is so that parties cannot too easily be taken over by someone who does not hold to their principles. Guessing. Unfortunately in this case, the enemies to traditional Republican ideals have already taken over. Thy brokered convention is a ploy for them to retain power when what needs to happen is for real conservatives to take back control of the party.
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