Posted on 11/13/2015 6:47:32 AM PST by Red Steel
The outsiders are still leading the pack in Rasmussen Reports' latest look at the Republican presidential primary race following Tuesday night’s debate.
Our latest national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters shows Donald Trump with 27% support. Twenty percent (20%) say they would vote for Dr. Ben Carson if the GOP presidential primary were held in their state today.
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida picks up 16% of the vote, while 13% prefer Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. Eight percent (8%) say they would vote for former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, while support for ex-Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina has fallen back to four percent (4%). Seven percent (7%) say they would choose one of the other candidates in the race. Five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Trump took the lead after the first debate in early August with 17% of the GOP vote, followed by Bush and Rubio each at 10%. Then it was Fiorina and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker with nine percent (9%) support each, followed by Cruz at seven percent (7%). Walker has since dropped out of the race.
Carson gained ground in surveys following the second and third debates. The latest survey shows Rubio and Cruz as the beneficiaries of strong performances at this week’s debate.
Most Republican voters still see Trump as their party’s likely presidential nominee in our weekly Trump Change survey. Those numbers will be updated again at 10:30 a.m. Eastern today.
The national telephone survey of 672 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on November 11-12, 2015. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
The Republican candidates have a strong military difference of opinion.
Trump leads among conservative Republicans who are the key to success in the party’s upcoming state primaries, but he holds just a narrow 25% to 21% edge on Carson. Rubio and Cruz tally 19% and 18% respectively among these voters.
Among all GOP voters, men and women are in general agreement, although women don’t have quite as much enthusiasm for Cruz.
The younger the Republican, the more likely he or she is to choose Trump.
Just 56% of all Republicans think their party has a plan for the future. The early success of candidates like Trump and Carson who are outside the GOP establishment is seen as a reflection of the unhappiness the party’s voters have with business as usual.
Democrats hold their second debate tomorrow night, and Rasmussen Reports will release new numbers on that race early next week. But front-runner Hillary Clinton is expected to emerge unscathed.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
The national telephone survey of 672 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on November 11-12, 2015. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
I was watching the Morning Joe on MSNBC this morning, and I couldn’t figure out why everyone on the show kept saying that Ben Carson was the decisive front runner. What polls do they keep referring to (other than their own, or the ones that have been discredited for oversampling evangelicals) that they base their assumptions on?
They repeat things like this over and over hoping that by saying it, it will become reality.
The left is just as scared of Trump as is the GOPe
Every time I hear Ben Carson’s name in the context of being president I laugh. He was done a long time ago.
If the guy really had support, then FR would have plenty of people backing him.
It is almost impossible to find anyone to go on camera and actually state why they support him. Just like Jeb.
Carson has defenders/apologist, not supporters [at least on this site]. His defenders claim they’re actually Cruz supporters. Something in that equation doesn’t make sense.
It is almost impossible to find anyone to go on camera and actually state why they support [Carson]. Just like Jeb.
Exactly. Carson's popularity seems to exist only in the pollsters' statistics.
To me, it's another huge indication that public opinion polling has become unreliable at best.
What remains obvious, however, is that Donald Trump's support is real, because it's being confirmed by the large and enthusiastic crowds which attend his campaign events, and by the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the media and the GOPe.
I expect Ben Carson's support to continue to fade, and on an accelerating basis. He's a fine man, but I just can't see him as President, and unless something truly miraculous occurs, I expect that to remain the case.
Interesting though that Cruz and Trump still do not attack each other.
What would be good is to have Trump and Cruz in the top two and hold that until closer to the actual primaries. It would be awful for the GOPe in that scenario.
I am certain the GOPe has plenty of tricks they are working on. Anything goes anymore.
Morning Joe has been pushing this memo for over a week now. I think it’s because they’re determined to take Carson out - all on their own. Mika couldn’t take out a mouse running around her house.
Poor Yebbie.... Saw a “Jeb!” 4”X 4” clear sticker on the back of a Prius (first Jeb sticker ) this AM whilst driving my bride of 35 years to work. This is NY mixed neighborhood between Hitlery and “moderate republicrats”. About 20% conservative. Jeb fits but he doesn’t even rate here.
I think Realclearpolitics jimmies the averages by a) excluding Reuters, OAN, Morning Consult (for some reason) and b) excluding Rasmussen. Right now Trump is up on RCP by .04 over Carson, but if you include those four polls, Trump is up by +10 or more.
It seems to me there are only two candidates who freepers support: Cruz & Trump. It’s amazing because most of us have been all over the map years ago. I take this as a good thing, myself.
I can’t wait to see what happens here if Romney enters the race!
Mika the Polska Kielbasa with the Jap name. Betcha Dupa she couldn’t take out a mouse... Rat that she is.
I love that it was a Prius. Perfect!
“Ben Carson was the decisive front runner.”
Ben is already well on his way to collapse. Puerto Rico statehood. Shooting down Russian planes. Amnesty. Drip. Drip. Drip.
‘Some Cruz supporters don’t care about any strategy. They do what they accuse Trump of.’
+1×1,000,000
That is so true. Puzzling, but profoundly true.
I like the fact that Trump and Cruz still don’t attack each other. Like you, I hope it lasts.
They are like the desperate Trump Haters on FR, who constantly post these bs polls and call us dumb. Each day Trump's reality makes them even more desperate and irrelevant.
+1!
It’s time for Trump to become Vlad the Impaler. I want Progressive/Globalist/Establishment heads on pikes.
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