Posted on 07/13/2015 1:31:38 PM PDT by Kaslin
We’re probably going to suffer through quite a few of these over the next fifteen months so let’s just get used to it now. Doug Sosnik at Politico has a lengthy “think piece” on the subject of how most presidential elections are actually over long before the polls close on the big day, and a clever reader of the tea leaves should be able to know who is going to win long in advance. Of course, such an article wouldn’t be much fun if you weren’t going to announce the winner, so Doug does so. And… surprise, surprise… it’s not the Republicans.
In every game there are decisive moments that determine the ultimate outcome. We like to think that presidential elections are dramatic fall campaigns pitting party against party, but the truth is that the most decisive moments often occur long before the general election kicks off. If history is any guide, the outcome of next year’s presidential campaign will likely be determined before the Republican Party has even selected their nominee. That uncomfortable fact means that the longer and more divisive the Republican primary, the less likely the party will be to win back the White House in 2016.
That introduction is rather far afield from the rest of the analysis in this article. Sosnik points out some statistical data as he goes along, some of which is actually quite relevant. For example, when an incumbent president has an approval rating of greater than 50% in the final year of their term, they are far more likely to win reelection, or their successor from the same party to win election if it is the incumbent’s second term. That’s not exactly rocket science, though. If the president is getting high ratings, the country is generally happy and happy people don’t tend to switch horses in mid-stream. But how far in advance are the president’s ratings “locked in” prior to election day? Look how far underwater Obama was just six weeks ago. But then two SCOTUS decisions later (which he had absolutely nothing to do with) he was back up over fifty percent. The electorate is a fickle bunch and you can’t take anything for granted when six months is an eternity in politics.
The author also notes the influence of early voting on “ending” elections early. To a limited degree I’ll give him that one, and it’s one of the greatest arguments against early voting and expanding voting windows. There may be a lot more information to come but voters are locked out of changing their minds if their ballots are already cast. But again, it’s not that big of a window. The vast majority of ballots will be cast in the final two weeks, with most of those still being on election day. And yes… by the final two weeks the die will pretty much have been cast unless we’ve got a serious nail biter taking place.
Perhaps the most curious part of the Politico analysis is where the author notes one of the most favored of all liberal chants… Republicans have lost the popular vote in five of the last six elections. (They have to include that last disclaimer to take into account Bush in 2000.) This is offered as proof of how unpopular the GOP is, regardless of the fact that Republicans control pretty much everything else at the moment.
While it is true that the Republicans now control both branches of Congress, as well as a significant majority of governorships and state legislatures around the country, it’s not enough to become the dominant political party in the country—not without the White House. Despite their successes in these recent off-year elections, Republicans have been unable to articulate a coherent national party agenda that appeals to a majority of Americans in the last two presidential elections—and they’ve lost the popular vote now in five of the last six presidential elections. At a time when the electorate’s makeup is changing and views on social issues are evolving, Republicans continue to espouse a backward vision for the country.
What this actually proves is two very different things. First, it shows us that it’s possible to lose presidential elections in places where you win gubernatorial races, state houses and a majority of congressional seats. And second, it shows that Democrats are fairly lazy as voters and tend to only show up for the big, gauzy White House race while not paying much attention to everything else in between. And yes, that’s a problem for the GOP. The real power happens at the local and state level for many aspects of life but for change on a federal level it’s hard to get much done without the big chair. The SJW have been very effective in turning out their voters every four years and finding various bits of hyped up outrage to stampede them in the direction they need.
The GOP needs an answer for that particular puzzle and they need to be getting on the problem fast. Sosnik may be grossly overstating how soon the election will be “over” but the end is most certainly on the horizon and heading our way.
Politics as normal, maybe.
This ain’t normal
Our Rulers are already telling us who will be our ‘leader’.
We saw our last ‘legitimate’ national election in 2008.
Now, it’s all just the Soviet model of installing leaders while giving the plebes a shell game false illusion that they actually have a say in who is their ruler.
Let’s face it, “hope and change” was a brilliant vision and so well executed despite median incomes being down 10-15% since 2008 and millions having departed the work force. And this time around, everyone will have the opportunity to vote for the first female president!!! What can go wrong casting your vote with that at the top of the priority list? Maybe in 2020 or 2024, the Dems can come up with a dog or cat to be the first animal president...
If this cycle goes like the last two have, then by next March Yeb Bush will have been nominated. That’s when I will stop paying attention to politics entirely as the GOP will have rendered my citizenship meaningless.
When they legalize 30 million illegal aliens as Democrats there will never be another GOP President.
I agree, 2008 was our last chance and the GOP just HAD to have McAmnesty. Because he was for amnesty.
It’s all about the amnesty.
The purpose of the GOP is to prevent the citizens from stopping The Cheap Labor Express.
I submit that Clown Prince nobama is the first animal president.
This animal could be a Democrat President, and is far more qualified than the current officeholder or any Democrat candidates.
Well we know what the purpose of that stupid article is. Unfortunately, people will fall for it and stay home. I refuse to fall for anything that left wing rag says
So according to your "Wisdom" (notice the quotation marks) the voters in Louisiana, Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, Arizona, Maryland, Washington, DC, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, Indiana, Nebraska, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Arkansas, California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota, Utah, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, North Dacota, South Carolina, Washington, Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska should just throw the towel in and give up.
You are out of your cotton picking mind. I would never give up, even if my state would be the last one with a primary date
Yeah, but we both know that the 4 year cycle is where the Rats really rev up the machine. They will manufacture the votes required. Dead voters. Voters who moved to another state. We could both go on and on with the techniques we both know of and still they will have yet others that neither of us have considered. Whatever it takes they will have just enough to win. The fraud we saw here in VA and Ohio in 2012 was enough. They will be even better at it next year and the GOP has done nothing to stop it. Anyone who thinks this next election means anything is delusional. It would be nice to see Cruz generate such a large margin the Rats just couldn’t undo it with their fraud and that is what we all have been praying for but realistically if Cruz can’t win Fla. and Ohio by 15% he can’t win. Now the question is what do we do then?
In 2008 and 2012, by the time our primary came around McCain and Romney already had the nomination locked up.
I voted against each of them, but it was pointless. That was March of 2008 and March of 2012.
There will be a presumed nominee like the last two times if the RNC can run the same playbook.
Trump seems like a wild card, but he might be a joker.
You are full of it. So what did you do in the General elections, stay home?
The shadow government has already picked Jeb! to install as our next president.
The US electorate hasn’t picked a president since Ronald Reagan. Every president since then was shoved down our throats.
We have no Democracy.
No, our last legitimate national presidential election was 1988.
More like 1856.
Hard to argue that. lol.
We haven’t been truly free for a long, long time. Just for a long time I was too ignorant to know it. Been fully awake for decades though...
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