Skip to comments.He Called It, And Now Silver's A Pop-Culture Star [Predicted Winner In All 50 States]
Posted on 11/09/2012 8:14:14 PM PST by Steelfish
He Called It, And Now Silver's A Pop-Culture Star By JOCELYN NOVECK
NEW YORK (AP) The other night, Nate Silver got a little taste of what things are going to be like for him, post-Election 2012.
The 34-year-old statistician, unabashed numbers geek, author and creator of the much-read FiveThirtyEight blog at The New York Times had gone out for a drink with friends on Manhattan's Lower East Side. But he couldn't stay incognito; immediately, he says, people sitting at the bar recognized him.
He was surprised, but probably shouldn't have been. After all, for 24 hours, ever since his election forecasts had proved uncannily successful he correctly predicted the presidential winner in all 50 states, and almost all the Senate races he'd been hailed as the election's "other winner," who'd silenced doubters and proved the value of a cool-headed, math-based approach.
That very night, he'd appeared on Jon Stewart's "The Daily Show" for the second time in three weeks. "Don't you want to stand up and say, 'I am Nate Silver, bow down to me!!'" Stewart roared, as the bespectacled Silver sat and chuckled. His name was trending on Twitter and he was the subject of a satirical Twitter hashtag, "Drunk Nate Silver." The Hollywood Reporter said he'd "made statistics sexy again." Many called his story a real-life "Revenge of the Nerds" tale.
And, oh, his new book had soared to No. 2 on Amazon, after he linked to it on Twitter an hour after the first network call for President Barack Obama. ("This is probably a good time to link to my book," he'd tweeted at 12:13 a.m. the closest he came to gloating.) Even so, Silver says he wasn't quite prepared for that incident in the bar.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Wow how did he know about the 140% turnout in some polling places the man is a genius
Wow, a rock star statistician. Just what this country was missing.
We had our own Nate Sliver here... jackmercer.
You gotta hand it to him - he’s a liberal, but a hyper-competent one. I’d congratulate him, too. Romney picked the wrong generals for his campaign, whereas Obama picked the right ones, and succeeded where Gore and Kerry failed.
Well that means Romney sucked as a candidate. The Buck Stops Here....makes you wonder about his judgement is deciding who to serve in his cabinet.
Maybe the guy should haul his rear-end to Staten Island or the Rockaways and help instead of partying in Manhattan?
This is why, the RNC needs to fire the old North Eastern liberals, the Ed Gillespie types who run the show.
He will drop like a rock when all the fraud comes out.
all “50” states...there were only 8 toss ups....like i couldn’t guess Romney was gonna win Oklahoma..etc....
Just look at actual voting numbers from Florida:
look at St. Lucie County, Fl ALMOST ALL THE PRECINCTS WELL INTO THE 130-160% TURNOUT
Reg Cards % turnout
4815 6550 136.03%
1849 2352 127.20%
1996 2566 128.56%
2694 3929 145.84%
2756 4378 158.85%
590 719 121.86%
2000 2804 140.20%
4460 6215 139.35%
2871 3663 127.59%
2948 4081 138.43%
3665 5609 153.04%
3181 4670 146.81%
3202 4119 128.64%
1835 2219 120.93%
2556 2909 113.81%
1024 1443 140.92%
2737 3631 132.66%
3840 5395 140.49%
3447 4475 129.82%
1832 2513 137.17%
3555 4847 136.34%
4122 5557 134.81%
1796 2568 142.98%
561 785 139.93%
1704 2748 161.27%
379 557 146.97%
1757 2313 131.64%
1720 2301 133.78%
If I had inside information on Democrat fraud I could have
predicted results more accurately than Nate Silver.
he was just lucky, the polls were skewed, but towards Obama
If you look at the real clear average of the final polls, obama’s margin of victory was more than 3 std deviations from from the final poll average (+2.5 vs + 0.7%).
that means that non-sampling error was more important than sampling error and the polls that silver put more weight on just happened to GUESS correctly on what turnout would be.
so enjoy it while it lasts, Nate, buddy, because success based on luck and guessing never does
Yup....I’ve been talking up jackmerecer all over FR for his excellent work. It shows how corrupt Barone, Rove & Morris were, or stupid, which I very much doubt. Jackmercer’s work shows we got out voted; unless people think jack was part of a massive plot to steal votes & just had this info on his computer.
Silver is still a pathetic, Democrat shill (most likely closet gay). He was off in the mid-term house elections by an entire 8 seats.
Yeah, enjoy it while you can, Silver. “Online sensations” last all of about two minutes anyway. You’ll soon be filed right next to ‘Numa Numa guy” and “Keyboard Cat”.
Nate used RCP state Polls. Nate didn’t do anything but report on what someone else’s polls predicted.
Looks like state polls, are the wave of the future. Forget National polls, in an electoral college the National polls don’t mean much.
Anyone can reproduce what Nate did, just look at the right data and act like an Echo Machine.
I'd have to agree. He was curiously disengaged during the whole process, given that he had 6 years to prepare (after his stint as MA governor). Where was Romney's grassroots support during the primaries, given the amount of time and money he had to throw at it, while other candidates were struggling to pay their mortgages and other bills? Reagan and GWB were no rocket scientists, but they knew intimately what they needed to do to win. Romney seems to have treated this as a hobby rather than as an all-consuming effort. The guy said and did things no one of his raw intelligence should have, unless he wasn't prepared. And that's a pity. If his past record is any guide, he would have been a great manager if he had become president.
I have to wonder if the typical contempt businessmen have for politics and the intelligence of the average politician shaped his whole lackadaisical approach. That was his mistake. Politicians might not be good at designing bridges or running businesses, but they do understand a thing or two about winning elections.
Realclearpolitics got 49/50 right just by mindlessly averaging poll numbers.
The genius, if there is any, was the Florida pick.
Question is... Was it really brilliance, or was he being fed internal poll numbers as was the case in 2008?
someone has already done just that. It turns out all you need is excel and an add on called monte carlo, then you simply plug in the top lines from publically accessable polls and PRESTO! you get Nate Silvers predictions.
Obama dismal and catastrophic foreign policy was at most only tangential to the whole campaign, Hardly any ads were played about the Rats booing God or Obama’s commitment to gay marriage. These were considered not-PC and were left out. This is now the price we pay.
Your post shows a real understanding of Mitt’s psychology. He did not belong in politics. He did not have an emotionl, or intutive feel for it. Great businessman, but he has no grasp of just how vile modern leftism is....and it chewed him up.
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