He Called It, And Now Silver's A Pop-Culture Star [Predicted Winner In All 50 States]

Yahoo News ^ | November 09, 2012 | OCELYN NOVECK

[Steelfish]

He Called It, And Now Silver's A Pop-Culture Star By JOCELYN NOVECK

NEW YORK (AP) — The other night, Nate Silver got a little taste of what things are going to be like for him, post-Election 2012.

The 34-year-old statistician, unabashed numbers geek, author and creator of the much-read FiveThirtyEight blog at The New York Times had gone out for a drink with friends on Manhattan's Lower East Side. But he couldn't stay incognito; immediately, he says, people sitting at the bar recognized him.

He was surprised, but probably shouldn't have been. After all, for 24 hours, ever since his election forecasts had proved uncannily successful — he correctly predicted the presidential winner in all 50 states, and almost all the Senate races — he'd been hailed as the election's "other winner," who'd silenced doubters and proved the value of a cool-headed, math-based approach.

That very night, he'd appeared on Jon Stewart's "The Daily Show" for the second time in three weeks. "Don't you want to stand up and say, 'I am Nate Silver, bow down to me!!'" Stewart roared, as the bespectacled Silver sat and chuckled. His name was trending on Twitter and he was the subject of a satirical Twitter hashtag, "Drunk Nate Silver." The Hollywood Reporter said he'd "made statistics sexy again." Many called his story a real-life "Revenge of the Nerds" tale.

And, oh, his new book had soared to No. 2 on Amazon, after he linked to it on Twitter an hour after the first network call for President Barack Obama. ("This is probably a good time to link to my book," he'd tweeted at 12:13 a.m. — the closest he came to gloating.) Even so, Silver says he wasn't quite prepared for that incident in the bar.

[funfan]

Wow how did he know about the 140% turnout in some polling places the man is a genius

[TXBlair]

Wow, a rock star statistician. Just what this country was missing.

[PetroniusMaximus]

We had our own Nate Sliver here... jackmercer.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2955525/posts?page=26#26

[Zhang Fei]

You gotta hand it to him - he’s a liberal, but a hyper-competent one. I’d congratulate him, too. Romney picked the wrong generals for his campaign, whereas Obama picked the right ones, and succeeded where Gore and Kerry failed.

[dfwgator]

Romney picked the wrong generals for his campaign,

Well that means Romney sucked as a candidate. The Buck Stops Here....makes you wonder about his judgement is deciding who to serve in his cabinet.

[machogirl]

Maybe the guy should haul his rear-end to Staten Island or the Rockaways and help instead of partying in Manhattan?

[Steelfish]

This is why, the RNC needs to fire the old North Eastern liberals, the Ed Gillespie types who run the show.

[freekitty]

He will drop like a rock when all the fraud comes out.

[basalt]

all “50” states...there were only 8 toss ups....like i couldn’t guess Romney was gonna win Oklahoma..etc....

[entropy12]

Just look at actual voting numbers from Florida:

look at St. Lucie County, Fl ALMOST ALL THE PRECINCTS WELL INTO THE 130-160% TURNOUT
http://www.slcelections.com/Pdf%20Docs/2012%20General/GEMS%20SOVC%20REPORT.pdf
Reg Cards % turnout
4815 6550 136.03%
1849 2352 127.20%
1996 2566 128.56%
2694 3929 145.84%
2756 4378 158.85%
590 719 121.86%
2000 2804 140.20%
4460 6215 139.35%
2871 3663 127.59%
2948 4081 138.43%
3665 5609 153.04%
3181 4670 146.81%
3202 4119 128.64%
1835 2219 120.93%
2556 2909 113.81%
1024 1443 140.92%
2737 3631 132.66%
3840 5395 140.49%
3447 4475 129.82%
1832 2513 137.17%
3555 4847 136.34%
4122 5557 134.81%
1796 2568 142.98%
561 785 139.93%
1704 2748 161.27%
379 557 146.97%
1757 2313 131.64%
1720 2301 133.78%

If I had inside information on Democrat fraud I could have
predicted results more accurately than Nate Silver.

[Reverend Wright]

he was just lucky, the polls were skewed, but towards Obama

If you look at the real clear average of the final polls, obama’s margin of victory was more than 3 std deviations from from the final poll average (+2.5 vs + 0.7%).

that means that non-sampling error was more important than sampling error and the polls that silver put more weight on just happened to GUESS correctly on what turnout would be.

so enjoy it while it lasts, Nate, buddy, because success based on luck and guessing never does

[LongWayHome]

Yup....I’ve been talking up jackmerecer all over FR for his excellent work. It shows how corrupt Barone, Rove & Morris were, or stupid, which I very much doubt. Jackmercer’s work shows we got out voted; unless people think jack was part of a massive plot to steal votes & just had this info on his computer.

[Viennacon]

Silver is still a pathetic, Democrat shill (most likely closet gay). He was off in the mid-term house elections by an entire 8 seats.

Yeah, enjoy it while you can, Silver. “Online sensations” last all of about two minutes anyway. You’ll soon be filed right next to ‘Numa Numa guy” and “Keyboard Cat”.

[4Speed]

Nate used RCP state Polls. Nate didn’t do anything but report on what someone else’s polls predicted.

Looks like state polls, are the wave of the future. Forget National polls, in an electoral college the National polls don’t mean much.

Anyone can reproduce what Nate did, just look at the right data and act like an Echo Machine.

[Zhang Fei]

Well that means Romney sucked as a candidate. The Buck Stops Here....makes you wonder about his judgement is deciding who to serve in his cabinet.

I'd have to agree. He was curiously disengaged during the whole process, given that he had 6 years to prepare (after his stint as MA governor). Where was Romney's grassroots support during the primaries, given the amount of time and money he had to throw at it, while other candidates were struggling to pay their mortgages and other bills? Reagan and GWB were no rocket scientists, but they knew intimately what they needed to do to win. Romney seems to have treated this as a hobby rather than as an all-consuming effort. The guy said and did things no one of his raw intelligence should have, unless he wasn't prepared. And that's a pity. If his past record is any guide, he would have been a great manager if he had become president.

I have to wonder if the typical contempt businessmen have for politics and the intelligence of the average politician shaped his whole lackadaisical approach. That was his mistake. Politicians might not be good at designing bridges or running businesses, but they do understand a thing or two about winning elections.

[Arthurio]

Realclearpolitics got 49/50 right just by mindlessly averaging poll numbers.

The genius, if there is any, was the Florida pick.

Question is... Was it really brilliance, or was he being fed internal poll numbers as was the case in 2008?

[TexasFreeper2009]

someone has already done just that. It turns out all you need is excel and an add on called monte carlo, then you simply plug in the top lines from publically accessable polls and PRESTO! you get Nate Silvers predictions.

[Steelfish]

Obama dismal and catastrophic foreign policy was at most only tangential to the whole campaign, Hardly any ads were played about the Rats booing God or Obama’s commitment to gay marriage. These were considered not-PC and were left out. This is now the price we pay.

[LongWayHome]

Your post shows a real understanding of Mitt’s psychology. He did not belong in politics. He did not have an emotionl, or intutive feel for it. Great businessman, but he has no grasp of just how vile modern leftism is....and it chewed him up.

[TBP]

He got lucky, and/or he had inside information about the plans. Silver is a partisan hack, nothing more.

[Zhang Fei]

Obama dismal and catastrophic foreign policy was at most only tangential to the whole campaign, Hardly any ads were played about the Rats booing God or Obama’s commitment to gay marriage. These were considered not-PC and were left out. This is now the price we pay.

I think the conclusion has to be that Romney is politically inept, not out of a lack of intelligence, but because he's never treated running for office as more than a hobby, and has spent little time on refining his message, building grassroots support and figuring out the skills he needs in his political operatives. If the six years Romney had in semi-retirement (after ending his term as MA governor) to work out the kinks in his presidential quest weren't enough, even while his rivals were busy making a living doing other things, I have to wonder if he'll ever learn.

[GeronL]

Ohio, Penn, Colorado and Florida were stolen by fraud

[Shadow44]

Silver only became famous for his prediction of the Democratic 2008 primary. Guess who had access to the Obama campaign’s polling data?

Nobody should be surprised he knew about Obama winning over 100% of precincts, he’s been a cog in the machine from day one.

[Republican Wildcat]

But for Sandy and Chris Christie, he would have been wrong.

[snarkytart]

Stop. We lost and Silver was dead on now two elections in a row and so was one of our own FR, Jack. He called it too and said the numbers were baked in for awhile.

[mojito]

was he being fed internal poll numbers

Yes. When libs started gushing over the 538 blog, the Zero people started feeding him data, or maybe even before. I'm sure that Nate knew several of the number crunchers that Zero employed. It was all very cozy between Nate, the NYSlimes, and the Zero campaign.

[Crucial]

Vote fraud in this election was massive.

[Crucial]

He will drop like a rock when all the fraud comes out.

Promise?

[LongWayHome]

Don’t waste your time. They will all ignore jackmercers work cause it blows up the theory that there was massive fraud since jack had the election called, lol, unless he was part of the plot. The fraud was the BS polls by Gallup & Ras & weighting party ID & screwing up the true results. Those were the only polls Drudge used everyday & conservatives fell for it.

[funfan]

A liberal would never cheat or lie
Just ask Obama about the video

[LongWayHome]

I remember the idiot Dems going on & on about vote fraud in 2000 & 2004. Magic machines & votes hid in Bush’s basement. Just sad. Republicans ought to be smarter than this. Not one poster has addressed jackmercer’s work & what it shows...guess why ? Cause it shows one average guy looking at the polls in an honest way using math & data could figure out Obama was ahead & likely to win.

[winodog]

I have a hard time believing there was that much fraud. But how do you explain the 130% turnout in many counties and 99% and 104% of the vote going for oboma

[NoExpectations]

"Ohio, Penn, Colorado and Florida were stolen by fraud"

I'll add Wisconsin to that list. Had a relative text me that 150 people were waiting in line before the polls opened.

[KSCITYBOY]

btt

[AnAmericanAbroad]

The reason folks are reluctant to address it is because it doesn't comport to their ideological narrative; it's discomforting information that clashes (blatantly) with a worldview that can perhaps be best described as episytemic closure. I took at look at jackmercer's work, and both he (and Nate Silver) were extraordinarily accurate. Kudos to them both; should I ever need a pollster, I certainly know who to look up. For me, one of the things I've noticed about some of the reactions to President Obama's re-election is that it's similar to reactions experienced by members of malignant cults once the truth is made all too clear. Shock, anger, denial, etc. You know; how could they be so wrong? How could they have come to believe what they did? That's why it's always good to look at multiple sources of information, even those you may disagree with. Confirmation bias is perhaps a normal human condition, but when such things lead to the aforementioned episystemic closure, false-consensus effect, and willful rejection of any ideas that might disrupt one's worldview, there's a problem. Remember; the first rule of any malignant cult is to isolate its adherents from any conflicting data or information that disagrees with the views projected by the cult itself. After awhile, the cult adherent does this mental trick by themselves, voluntary. George Orwell certainly noticed this in "1984" as blackwhite. The ability to not only accuse your political opponent of impudently saying that "black is white" contrary to logic, but to be able to convince oneself that "black is white" if the situation demands it. Come on, folks. Conservatives must be able to dispassionately analyze information and arrive at a logical conclusion based on the available empirical evidence. jackmercer certainly did that, and did so very well; bravo. Should we do otherwise, we run the risk of becoming little more than political cultists.

[patriot08]

.

Barack Obama voter fraud 2012
http://www.ObamaVoterFraud.com/

Friday, November 9, 2012 - 22 Updates Posted Today and People You Can Contact! See FRIDAY UPDATES! *

Is this what Barack Obama calls a “ground game?” All things considered, on this page and elsewhere, Mitt Romney IS our President elect. Let’s do something about it!

I’ll be adding additional links on a regular basis and forwarding all of this information to Mitt’s campaign! Please send other links.

Evidence of massive Obama voter fraud in Colorado! Ten counties show 104% to 140% turnout!

http://www.redstate.com/2012/09/04/colorado-counties-have-more-voters-than-people/

Fraud: Some told they already voted, others brag about voting multiple times

http://www.examiner.com/article/fraud-some-told-they-already-voted-others-brag-about-voting-multiple-times

Crooked Politics: Obama Lost in Every State With Photo ID Law

http://american3rdposition.com/?p=8416

Philly Polling Stations Where GOP Inspectors Were Kicked Out Had 90% Voter Turnout, 99% Voted For Obama…

http://weaselzippers.us/2012/11/08/philly-polling-stations-where-gop-inspectors-were-kicked-out-had-90-voter-turnout-99-voted-for-obama/

[Sounds like those Black Panthers who kicked out the GOP observers and stood guard at the polling stations were not just trying to intimidate voters! They were hiding something!]

Voter Fraud Watch: Two Election Judges Replaced After Illegal Activity in Ohio - Fox News Insider

http://foxnewsinsider.com/2012/11/07/voter-fraud-watch-two-election-judges-replaced-after-illegal-activity-in-ohio/

Why the Polls are Wrong: Electorate is R+6

http://www.breitbart.com/InstaBlog/2012/11/05/Why-the-Polls-are-Wrong-Poll-Shows-Electorate-is-R-6

Vote fraud alert: One out of five registered Ohio voters is bogus

http://www.humanevents.com/2012/09/17/vote-fraud-alert-one-out-of-five-registered-ohio-voters-is-bogus/#.UJrnpl7Imc0.facebook

via @BeachCity55 on Twitter: Senior parents in Florida told not to put their ballots through their reader but in a box. Senior votes in FL not counted?

Data Points To A Powerful Romney Campaign – And Yet…He Lost?
http://goo.gl/GB723

“You have to vote for Dems” NYC poll worker tells GOP Senate candidate #IllegalElectioneering
http://goo.gl/nn5CN

At least 70,000 report voting problems, mostly in swing states
http://goo.gl/jjCSX

Plane crash destroys Afghanistan US military ballots, most of which are for Mitt Romney
http://goo.gl/kNLFz

Obama’s pattern of disenfranchisement of the military vote
http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=48

Another Stolen Election? Election data HIGHLY suspicious AND the George Soros’ “Secretary of State Project” http://goo.gl/y1ybR

Yes, this is the same George Soros who owns part of the company in Spain Obama outsourced parts of the election to and who has been banned from Hungary because he tampered with elections there.

We will continue to add updates! Please check back often!

THURSDAY UPDATES:

From my friend Lynn Victory on Facebook:

“Thanks for what you are doing. My son is friends with a guy in the Romney campaign who has actually been on since 2008. He is not high up, but said that the O campaign bought high tech equipment to target county by county where the votes were needed in battle-ground states, so that they could “bus in the needed votes”. The guy would not say fraud, but that is fraud.”

Also this referral from Lynn:

White House Insider on Obama Steal the Votes Strategy (Just Before the Election)

“But…these Obama boys…they took it to a whole other level. Votes, donations…deals…it’s a lot more Putin than it is Clinton. Pay to play…Big Labor…this country never seen it at this level.”

http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/11/01/white-house-insider-governor-romney-is-gonna-win-this-thing/

Voter fraud witnessed in Wisconsin by one of Mitt’s ORCA observers:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=387389068009997&set=a.362561847159386.84375.361783440570560&type=1&theater

via Lori Patriot on Facebook:

52 Democrats arrested for VOTER FRAUD so far

http://www.newsnet14.com/?p=92957

VIDEO: Illegal Aliens Caught Voting and Stealing Elections In Florida In Vast Numbers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ILJDudUpct0

In 2008, John McCain Ignored Vote Fraud to Avoid Civil Unrest
http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/46302

[See what that got us?]

Michael Savage: How Obama fixed 2012 election
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=dmJtaOO2etc

Massive voter fraud discovered in April
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ILJDudUpct0

Is Voter Fraud Being Committed in Ohio? (Early Voting)
http://www.humanevents.com/2012/10/26/is-voter-fraud-being-committed-in-ohio/

FRIDAY UPDATES:

Pundit Press: What Luck! Obama Won Dozens of Cleveland Districts with 100% of the Vote
http://www.punditpress.com/2012/11/what-luck-obama-won-dozens-of-cleveland.html

Photo of Ethiopians brought to Ohio voting stations by busload, 95% of whom did not speak English, and told to vote for Obama, straight Dem ticket
https://www.facebook.com/lori.patriot/posts/404694619604138

“Did this Dirty Trick Get Obama Re-Elected?”
http://www.wnd.com/2012/11/did-this-dirty-trick-get-obama-elected/

Vote Fraud Expert: Romney Votes Not Counted in Key States
http://www.prisonplanet.com/vote-fraud-expert-romney-votes-not-counted-in-key-states.html

“Could we fix an election? Sure, they would never know it.”
http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/11/09/could-we-fix-an-election-sure-they-would-never-know-it/

Thousands of votes from our military troops uncounted or missing
http://www.examiner.com/article/cast-aside-thousands-of-votes-from-our-military-troops-uncounted-or-missing

Defense Department can’t put soldiers, ballots together
http://www.wnd.com/2012/11/defense-department-cant-put-soldiers-ballots-together/

Voter fraud in Pennsylvania - Black Panthers return, GOP inspectors thrown out
http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/conscience-conservative/2012/nov/6/voter-fraud-pennsylvania-black-panthers-return-gop/

Ohio fraudulent voter registration cards
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Ohio-voter-registration-fraud/2012/11/03/id/462674

Ohio Residents Told They Already Voted When They Showed Up At the Polls Tuesday
http://godfatherpolitics.com/7942/ohio-residents-told-they-already-voted-when-they-showed-up-at-the-polls-tuesday/#.UJuBsqfTvHc.facebook

Poll Worker Puts Glendale Precinct’s Ballots on Car, Drives Away
http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Ballots-Found-in-Glendale-Street-177720291.html

Referenced above, but with more information:

Two Ohio Election Judges Removed for Allowing Unregistered Voters to Cast Ballots
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/06/Report-Two-Election-Judges-Removed-By-Hamilton-County-Ohio-for-Allowing-Unregistered-Voters-to-Cast-Ballots

Democrat Admits He’s Voted FOUR Times Already
http://nation.foxnews.com/voter-fraud/2012/11/05/democrat-admits-hes-voted-four-times-already

Boston reports 129% voter turnout, 79% for Obama; 74% for Elizabeth Warren
http://poorrichardsnews.com/post/35319922188/voter-fraud-boston-reports-129-voter-turnout-79-for

This one could be just a calibration issue, but not necessarily based on the programer’s testimony in the next link:

Voting machine swaps Romney for Obama
http://www.marionstar.com/article/20121031/NEWS03/310310009

Programmer Testifies About Rigging Elections With Vote Counting
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Hbf3iaEbAuY

VIDEO: Possible voter fraud in Pennsylvania — or just voting machine malfunction?
http://blogs.seattletimes.com/uwelectioneye/2012/11/06/possible-voter-fraud-in-pennsylvania/

Voter Fraud Complaint Filed against Florida Democrats
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/voter-fraud-Florida-Democrats/2012/10/05/id/458894

“Ballot Re-writers” Update from Allen Westhttps://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=299196730187117&set=a.198312883608836.34844.198021666971291&type=1&theater

“Half the Democratic ground game is voter turnout. The other half is voter fraud.”

Voter Fraud: Obama Won 108% of Registered Voters in Wood County, Ohio
http://frontpagemag.com/2012/dgreenfield/voter-fraud-obama-won-%108-of-registered-voters-in-ohio-county/

Video: Diebold Whistleblower Speaks Out on Voter Fraud
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=k_rMpQKqZhM

BREAKING: St. Lucie County, Florida Had 141.1% Turnout; Obama Won County
http://www.ihatethemedia.com/breaking-st-lucie-county-florida-had-1411-turnout-obama-won-county

Between St. Lucie and Broward Counties, we have a pretty good idea what happened in Florida. Normal voting is what, 50% turnout? It doesn’t take many counties like this to affect an entire state by multiple percentage points.

All of these numbers between 99% (Pennsylvania) and 141.1% (Florida) turnout in dozens of counties in swing states makes me think Team Obama was panicking a lot just before the election, with Mitt up by 7% in certain early voting polls. They overcompensated so much the fraud is impossible to hide. I think they know it, which may be one reason Axelrod is stepping down. (Sound familiar Petraeus and Benghazi?)

As I told someone earlier today, this is who Obama is. This is who Chicago (the machine) is. Do we really want this to be who America is? Is this how we will define our elections from 2008 on? As Mitt says, “America can do better.” We must do better. We can’t let the message be out there that America will let this fraud go.

Want to do something about all of this? Tiffany Banks and Darin Southam forwarded me a list of people you can contact who are in the November 9, 2012 3:12 PM comment below.

Did you know voters can request a recount in certain states? (Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Wisconsin!) Take a look at the comment by @RightonMainSt dated November 9, 2012 11:45 PM below for instructions! Mitt will have to ask in Colorado himself. (Yes, you Mitt!)

It has also been suggested that we ask Republican Secretaries of State NOT to certify the election until all questions about voter fraud are abated. Some people think this may provoke a crisis, but it can’t be worse than the one we are looking at for the next four years and the impact on generations to come! America NEEDS Mitt, and Mitt won fair and square. This was not a ballot stuffing competition but an election. Let’s make sure it’s counted that way!

Thank you all. Over 7,500 people have visited this page in the first 24 hours and I hope millions will see it eventually. Please pass it on! We can do this! (Yes we can!)

[Hotlanta Mike]

Not too difficult...states like Georgia that have voter ID laws went for Romney. Those that don’t have voter ID laws “went” for Obama.

[1010RD]

Gore and Kerry weren’t sitting Presidents. There’s a lot more to this story than we’ve read so far.

[1010RD]

You’re both right. I suspect COINTELPRO on this. If the meme becomes Romney’s incompetent or ORCA failed then we seem like silly rightwingers if we pursue vote fraud.

[Crucial]

Wisconsin was also stolen by fraud. They just bussed up fancy lawyer and a bunch from Chicago to vote in Wisconsin.

[Quickgun]

What did he know about fraud, and when did he know it?

[GeronL]

i beleive it

[funfan]

Did they have electronic voting in 2004 I know they did not in 2000?

[LongWayHome]

You explained this better than I ever could. You notice that they keep skipping over jackmercer’s work here on FR before the election:) I too was guilty of pretty much the same behavior. I was looking almost exclusively at Ras & Gallup for my polling data this year & we see how that turned out.

[eater-of-toast]

Romney has had everything handed to him in life. That sort of privileged background doesn’t often produce a fighter.

[txrangerette]

Explain how Romney received post graduate degrees simultaneously from Harvard Business and Harvard Law. From having it “handed to him”.

Whatever your views on Bain Capital, explain how he was successful there. From having it “handed to him”.

How was he able to reverse a pre-Olympics disaster successfully? From having it “handed to him”.