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The shape of things to come (John Derbyshire on the future of the GOP)
John Derbyshire ^ | November 9, 2012 | John Derbyshire

Posted on 11/09/2012 10:02:38 AM PST by Zhang Fei

What about the future, then? Does the Republican Party have a future?

As I have been saying, there is no unity among white Americans. The old splits of education, class, sex, religion, city-country, and of course North-South still divide whites, and that is the basis of most of our politics. The Republican Party is white, sure enough, but whites aren't Republican.

This will presumably be less and less the case as whites head for minority status. At some point the fact of impending minority status will sink in, and whites will begin to sink their differences and circle the wagons. At some point the Lee Kuan Yew principle will take over. I've quoted it before, and I'll quote it again, because it's very quotable in this context. Quote from Lee Kuan Yew, who was Prime Minister of Singapore for thirty years, and the power behind the curtain for a further twenty in that very successful city-state, quote:

In multiracial societies, you don't vote in accordance with your economic interests and social interests, you vote in accordance with race and religion.

End quote.

What then will be the fate of the Republican Party? The Republicans themselves seem unable to discuss this at any level above the moronic. The usual thing you hear is that the GOP has to "reach out" to minorities, especially Hispanics, by handing out a few million sets of citizenship papers to illegals and by putting Marco Rubio on the 2016 ticket.

This is, as I said, moronic. Not "Mormonic" — been there, done that — moronic.

In the first place, Rubio's a white guy of Cuban ancestry, an outlier among Hispanics, from a group that Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Dominicans and Guatemalans don't much care for. In the second place, non-white, non-Asian minorities in the U.S.A. underperform in education and employment, and have for generations. You don't need to have a metaphysical theory about why this is so, it's just so, has been for decades in defiance of every kind of remedial action, and there's no evidence anyone can do anything about it. For example, we now have a good database on Hispanics covering the fourth and fifth generations: the statistics are terrible. High-school dropout rates, test scores, unmarried pregnancies, crime, every kind of social dysfunction — Hispanics in the generality are an underperforming group that depends on money transfers from whites and Asians via government. Why would this group ever, in any numbers, vote for a small-government white party? And you can of course write that out all over again in boldface large type and italics for blacks. In the third place, given the previous point, where on earth is the sense in expanding this never-going-to-vote-Republican demographic by awarding citizenship to a further three or four million of them? What's the logic here? "We got into this pickle because of uncontrolled immigration. How do we get out of it? Uhhh… I know! — let's try more uncontrolled immigration!" As Basil Fawlty would say: "Brilliant!" Or as a different Englishman, Daily Telegraph columnist Ed West, headlined his column this week, quote: Pundits tell the Republican party: "The only way you can win is by importing more Democrat voters", end quote. Did someone say "Stupid Party"? This is beyond stupid! In the fourth place, Republicans have poisoned their credibility in this zone by being complicit in the phenomenon they are now pretending to be vexed by, as I described before. The hunger for cheap labor on the part of Republican donor groups has been a big driver of our country's demographic transformation. Why should we listen to anything Republicans have to say about this? For fifty years they've been part of the problem; why should we now believe they're willing to be part of the solution? And in the fifth place, this talk about reaching out to minorities and diversifying the ticket just insults white people, the very group Republicans should be trying to rally. OK, say in 2050 our numbers fall below half the population. That's still a mighty lot of people. Are you telling me that for the next 38 years this huge bloc, the founding stock of modern America, should not be allowed to see themselves represented on a Presidential ticket? Where's the equity in that?

"But," (I hear you say), "if the GOP is to be the white folks' party, and if white folks are destined to be a minority even within the possible lifetime of a reactionary old fogey like Derbyshire, then the GOP will be a minority party, for ever excluded from power, won't it?"

That depends how things shake out over the next forty years. Yes: In a nation made up entirely of ethnic minorities, any ethnically-based party will of course be a minority party. To get power under the present constitutional order, supposing that continues to exist, two or more minorities will have to unite under one party.

But (A) I refer you to Lee Kuan Yew's observation quoted earlier, that in a multiethnic state, politics inevitably comes down to an ethnic shoving match; and (B) this logic will apply to the Democratic Party, too, only in the opposite direction.

Let me elaborate on (B) there. The only thing binding the Democratic Party together right now is hatred of traditional white America. As traditional white America fades in power and importance, the Democrats, deprived of that binding force, may come unglued. By mid-century our politics may consist of three, four, or more minority parties in floating alliances with each other. It's plausible, for example — though I'll allow I may be influenced by personal bias here — it's plausible that whites and East Asians could go into coalition with each other. Or that successful white Hispanics like Rubio might be at odds with underperforming black and Amerindian Hispanics. Or that blacks and Hispanics may turn enemies, as they already are in jails and schoolyards all over the nation.

So I take the chatter about the death of the Republican Party with a grain of salt. However, I take the other chatter — the chatter about the Republican Party ceasing to be a white party — I take that with a whole truckload of salt. No, make that a one-hundred-wagon locomotive full of salt. Mm, come to think of it, let's make it a container ship …


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Extended News; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; obama; romney
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To: DustyMoment

I actually think we should disband the Republican Party, all become Democrats, and try to destroy them from within.

Minorities have been conditioned to reflexively hate Republicans. Once everyone in the country is a Democrat, they won’t have that option any more and will have to vote on issues as opposed to the letter behind a candidate’s name.

Under that scenario, I actually like our chances.


61 posted on 11/09/2012 7:02:35 PM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: military cop

A good list.

Add to that: fly DEEP under the radar in all of these things. Take the enemy by surprise. We need to study military tactics and strategies. This is war.


62 posted on 11/09/2012 7:02:48 PM PST by thecodont
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To: Zhang Fei
Once a pain threshold is reached, the 90% shift in the white vote to the GOP may occur overnight, in political terms.

This sounds exciting! It's like the latent heat of crystallization!

63 posted on 11/09/2012 7:09:28 PM PST by thecodont
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To: Alaska Wolf

Start a thread on those parties and maybe someone will post on them to you, this thread is about the GOP.


64 posted on 11/09/2012 7:26:07 PM PST by ansel12 (Todd Akin was NOT the tea party candidate, Sarah Steelman was, Brunner had tea party support also.)
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To: ansel12
As an unwilling union member for decades,

Paul, Goode and Johnson were GOP flip floppers, weren't they?

65 posted on 11/09/2012 7:31:01 PM PST by Alaska Wolf (USA!)
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To: ansel12
this thread is about the GOP.

Paul, Goode and Johnson were GOP flip floppers, weren't they?

66 posted on 11/09/2012 7:34:09 PM PST by Alaska Wolf (USA!)
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To: soycd
And this time race was not a factor, it was the few million gonadal and religious voters that stayed home because Romney was Mormon and didn’t force rape victims to carry their rapist infected embryo. I’ll add that people also vote or abstain in accordance with their intelligence.

Your intelligence doesn't seem very high when it comes to voting and elections.

The most pro-Romney voting block was the most religious, and the most pro-life group in America, the Evangelical Christians, who voted 79% republican, those with no religious affiliation voted 26% republican.

How did you vote? Did you vote like a deeply religious, dedicated pro-lifer, or like a person unaffiliated with a religion?

67 posted on 11/09/2012 7:58:58 PM PST by ansel12 (Todd Akin was NOT the tea party candidate, Sarah Steelman was, Brunner had tea party support also.)
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To: Alaska Wolf

I have no idea what your posts are about, or why you are posting your gibberish about other parties, or whatever you are trying to get out, to me.


68 posted on 11/09/2012 8:01:35 PM PST by ansel12 (Todd Akin was NOT the tea party candidate, Sarah Steelman was, Brunner had tea party support also.)
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To: ansel12
I have no idea what your posts are about

Obviously you don't want to face the fact that the GOP is not monolithic.

69 posted on 11/09/2012 8:30:27 PM PST by Alaska Wolf (USA!)
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To: Zhang Fei
Derbyshire's point is that as whites shrink as a % of the total population, the GOP will become the white party much as the Democratic party is the black party - there may come a day when the GOP gets 90% of the white vote.

I don't think that will happen, Is there a party in South Africa or Zimbabwe that gets 90% of the white vote?

But it is ironic that White Liberals will be the 1st to be marginalized. Every election cycle more & more White Liberals are replaced by Minorities. There are cities like Los Angles and Philadelphia that will never have a White mayor again, soon you will be able to say that about states & governors.

70 posted on 11/09/2012 9:44:21 PM PST by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: comebacknewt
Under that scenario, I actually like our chances.

You forgot the "/sarc" at the end.

71 posted on 11/09/2012 9:51:21 PM PST by DustyMoment (Congress - another name for white collar criminals!!)
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To: Alaska Wolf

I just have not idea what you are chopping at, something about third parties I guess.


72 posted on 11/09/2012 10:23:37 PM PST by ansel12
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To: ansel12
I just have not idea

Are you drunk?

73 posted on 11/10/2012 1:07:29 AM PST by Alaska Wolf (USA!)
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To: Alaska Wolf

I just don’t understand why you are posting this nonsense to me, post after post of nothing.


74 posted on 11/10/2012 1:13:47 AM PST by ansel12
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To: Alaska Wolf

OH! I think I get it now, You are trying to say something about the tea party?

To: Callahan
Akin was not the tea party candidate.

“Missouri, a bastion of the tea-party movement, has been shifting right in recent elections. The Tea Party Express and 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin endorsed former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman in the GOP primary. Self-financing businessman John Brunner had the backing of FreedomWorks, a national tea party umbrella group.”

The tea party has been a stunning success, leading us to historical gains in 2010 for example, the gope has been fighting them tooth and nail, and as their disaster called Mitt Romney shows, the establishment doesn’t understand politics.
18 posted on Fri Nov 09 2012 10:41:21 GMT-0800 (Pacific Standard Time) by ansel12


75 posted on 11/10/2012 1:18:39 AM PST by ansel12
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To: Zhang Fei; newgeezer

The Republican party is a white onion and the Democrats handily peal off layers and take them. They peal off the gay layer, the female layer, the senior layer, the lazy layer, the union layer, and the athiest layer. That leaves a really small layer that is doomed.


76 posted on 11/10/2012 1:20:43 AM PST by DungeonMaster (If a man will not work, then neither shall he eat.)
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To: ansel12
I just don’t understand

What is it exactly that you fail to comprehend? Please be specific.

77 posted on 11/10/2012 1:21:11 AM PST by Alaska Wolf (USA!)
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To: ansel12
OH! I think I get it now, You are trying to say something about the tea party?

Where did you get that idea? If I were trying to state something about the Tea Party, I would have named it.

78 posted on 11/10/2012 1:25:57 AM PST by Alaska Wolf (USA!)
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To: thecodont

that is my point. It’s time to stop with the high road statesman act in this party.


79 posted on 11/10/2012 5:46:36 AM PST by military cop (I carry a .45....cause they don't make a .46....)
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To: cripplecreek
I just think we need to stop the divisive crap and get back to work or the democrats will bowl us over like we weren’t even here.

Indeed! Personally, I'd love nothing more than that.

You'll understand that I'm not holding my breath though, right?


The pain you feel today is the strength you'll have tomorrow.

80 posted on 11/10/2012 11:35:02 AM PST by rdb3 (Democrats: Once a slave owner, ALWAYS a slave owner!)
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