Skip to comments.POLITICO: Battleground Tracking Poll: Dead heat
Posted on 11/06/2012 6:41:32 AM PST by Numbers Guy
BOSTONThe presidential race is tied going into Election Day.
The final POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted Sunday and Monday shows Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama each claiming 47 percent nationally.
Our previous poll, conducted Monday through Thursday of last week, found the race tied at 48 percent. Although Romney and Obama have each led at times, the two candidates have stayed within the margin of error since the spring.
(Also on POLITICO: 9 takeaways from the 2012 election)
Independents break for Romney by 15 points, 47 percent to 32 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.politico.com ...
Near the bottom there's a question: Who did you vote for in 2008? The results are Obama 50%, McCain 40% (others presumably didn't vote or were too young to vote). In other words, given that Obama won by just under 7 points, this polling sample is skewed 3 points to the Dems based on something clearly verifiable (the actual results in 2008). Now that's not completely indicative, you likely have older voters who passed on who may have leaned McCain and firsttime voters may lean Democratic, but it is an interesting measure of the skew.
I consider it a very good omen that sources typically biased to the left are constantly calling this race a tie. I do not believe it is.
More accurate would be to determine what the margin of victory was in the battleground states in 2008. It’s possible that it might have been closer than the national spread of 7.27%.
What did Politico do? Poll all the cellphone numbers that their staffers gave them of their ‘drug - connections’ in DC? Ha!
“Independents break for Romney by 15 points, 47 percent to 32 percent.”
So for Zero to win, he’s going to have to get MORE Dims to the polls than what showed up in 2008. Yeah right.
Once again, we are being fed this TOO CLOSE TO CALL crap.
We heard it before with the Wisconsin Recall. The reality: 49 MINUTES after the polls closed it was OVER. Walker won 53-46.
Here is MSNBC saying it would be hours and hours before we knew who won, and then having to eat crow. PRICELESS
D+4 and Romney up 15 with Indies? And still tied? Makes little sense to me. How can Romney not win this election?
While it's called "Battleground", the 47-47 tie in the poll is actually across the entire nation, not just in the battleground states, so the 7% comparison (to the 50-40 margin) is the right one.
An incumbent at 47% is not in a good position.
Keeping fingers crossed.
Taking just those states and adding them up from 2008 I come up with 7.08% advantage for Obama, nearly the same as the 7.27% national advantage.
As I understand. Ed Goes one of the two founders of the poll, said last night there model they run, taking poll results and other metrics shows Romney winning 52-47. They are generally one of the most accurate groups out there.
D/R/I breakdown in the poll?
Never used to ask this question, now I always do.
Uncross your fingers and instead, pray. It's much more effective---and your knuckles won't get stiff.
If you go to the full internals, by region, you'll see that the full poll had respondents in numerous non-battleground states (like Texas and California). The 10 competitive states is a subset (and one they have Obama leading in, though I think there's a serious margin of error problem there due to the much smaller sample size).
May the heros of Benghazi be proud of how we vote today.
They gave their lives for us, now we need to give our votes for them.
Vote as if the lives of our Military Men and Women depended on it.
Tell me if I am wrong, but some “pundit”...don’t know if it was Carville or Rove or someone else...but was there or was there not some “rule of thumb” that said an incumbent under 50% generally gets 1 or 2 points FEWER than his last poll number?
I was thinking of the same issue: who is voting this year who didn't vote in '08 and who voted in '08 who isn't voting this year? It has to be a bit more nuanced than merely the older voters in '08 having passed on the young first time voters replacing them. There are quite a number of not so young conservatives who foolishly sat out '08 out of frustration with RINO McCain and his passive campaign, but are now strong for Romney. You also have some not so old Democrats, especially so-called "minorities," who were enthusiastic for the Messiah in '08 but are sitting this one out in remorse or resentment at his performance as POTUS.
R&R should have a built in 7.9% advantage with that demographic.
Why? How many unemployed vote Rat, because they think they will keep the government checks coming?
A landside for Romney?
Because the government checks usually cannot replace 75K+ salaries.
Now come on, talking about older GOP leaning voters dying and younger Dem leaning voters being added to the voting population is just nonsense.
Why, you ask.
Because you are ignoring the fact that the whole voting population has aged 4 years thus becoming more GOP leaning. That cancels out the old vs young effect.
Ed Goeas is quoted in the Weekly Standard yesterday that they project Romney’s vote total to be 51% FWIW. In past elections, these guys have been very, very good.
I'll second that: it's impossible for Obama to even come close if he trails among Indies by 15. But there's one little caveat there that needs some explaining from the pollsters: Since 47 + 32 = 79, where did the other 21 % of the Indies go? Seems like much too high a number to be undecided and/or third party.
Uh, guys, this shows a BIG OBAMA LEAD in the swing states.
This is a good poll, and that is my first true warning sign.
Skewed Polutico lies with statistics again
warning that Obama will win?
The FDR Demwits are almost all gone now, a great many have passed since 2008. Of those who remain, many or most will have experienced the impact of Obamacare, and have seen what an a-hole he is on a consistent basis. Younger voters have four years more under their belts, and if they’re like most people (including me), they’ll have spent a few of those in the work force and lost some of that youthful stupid enthusiasm for redistribution and (especially) hiring quotas.
The wife of a friend is a diehard straight-ticket no-thinking-allowed Demwit, but she absolutely HATES quotas, because she feels she can do the job as well as anyone. I guess she doesn’t care who else loses out on a job because of the color bar, as long as it’s not her.
I voted for Romney last Thursday.
Today I’m praying.
I didn't say that. Rather I was responding to Numbers Guy's post # 1 and stating that the difference between the two electorates is more complex than just that. There is the more than compensating factor I mentioned: Conservatives who sat out '08 now returning to vote, plus lefties who voted in '08 now disillusioned and staying home.
As to the likelihood of the same individual voter aging 4 years and becoming more GOP leaning, there is probably some statistical truth to that. I saw one study where 13% of 2008 Obama voters are now voting for Romney. (On the other hand, very few McCain voters in '08 are switching to Obama.) It probably in most cases has more to to do with being turned off by Obama as an individual rather than generically becoming more GOP leaning, though. Either way, I'd be more than happy to have their votes.
LOL. I wasn’t picking on you. The post was really aimed at the conversation in general.
But it is true that as the population ages it becomes more conservative. At the far end they fall off. At the near end, the join as Dem leaning. Net result: not much.